Casual Geopolitics

Your daily geopolitics and culture round up.

[The Sameer Project @sameerproject]

Imagine being a child and waiting nearly three years just to go back to school. Support here: https://t.co/NybupLBbUF

For many children in Gaza, this may be their first real return to lessons since their education was repeatedly interrupted, their schools bombed and destroyed by the occupation, their peers martyred.

Their classroom may be a tent. Their schoolyard may sit beside a displacement camp. Their families may not even have enough money for shoes, notebooks, or the small fees required for education.

But they are showing up. They are writing, drawing, learning, playing at recess, and refusing to surrender their futures.

Help The Sameer Project make sure they arrive prepared…

1 backpack: $15
Stationery and pen kit: $15
1 pair of shoes: $11
Socks: $2
Tracksuit set: $17

Donate to our General Fund and help give Gaza’s children the basic necessities they need to learn comfortably and with dignity: https://t.co/NybupLBbUF

Other ways to donate include:
https://t.co/OmIU4SifDD (Paypal option, please make sure to add a message saying "GENERAL")
https://t.co/WNZu0ERJci (Venmo option, please make sure to add a message saying "GENERAL")

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

@allegrajacchia @KatieMiller Could kindly you DM me?
https://t.co/OKROYOVNXU

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Hello Allegra,

I’m hoping you can help me with something that genuinely doesn’t make sense.

My account was demonetised for some reason, but I’ve attached the email on the 8th of September confirming that my appeal was successful. Despite that, I’m still unable to apply to the Original Content Scheme, with no avenue of appeal.

I’ve always put a huge amount of effort into creating original content specifically for X. I write my own articles, opinions and geopolitical analysis, and I’ve built an audience of over 500,000 followers doing that. I don’t engage in boosting, follow-backs, engagement farming, repeat posting or spam.

I’d genuinely appreciate it if you could help get this resolved. It’s incredibly demoralising to be treated like this when you’re putting real effort into creating original, compliant content for the platform.

Thank you 🙏🏼

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Hello Allegra,

I’m hoping you can help me with something that genuinely doesn’t make sense.

My account was demonetised for some reason, but I’ve attached the email on the 8th of September confirming that my appeal was successful. Despite that, I’m still unable to apply to the Original Content Scheme, with no avenue of appeal.

I’ve always put a huge amount of effort into creating original content specifically for X. I write my own articles, opinions and geopolitical analysis, and I’ve built an audience of over 500,000 followers doing that. I don’t engage in boosting, follow-backs, engagement farming, repeat posting or spam.

I’d genuinely appreciate it if you could help get this resolved. It’s incredibly demoralising to be treated like this when you’re putting real effort into creating original, compliant content for the platform.

Thank you 🙏🏼

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

🇬🇧 My country of the UK is now feeling the brunt of the war.

UK inflation has jumped to 3.1% thanks to the Iran turbocharging energy and fuel prices.

This is exactly what people meant when we said this war wouldn’t stay in the Middle East.

Oil goes up. Fuel goes up. Transport gets more expensive. Then food, shipping, flights, shopping, everything else.

And it’s not Trump and his family making billions from insider trading who pay. It’s not the people deciding which school or wedding to strike next who pay either. It’s their billionaire donors or the corporations making billions from business contracts off the back of this.

We do. We pay.

The government calls it “difficult decisions” like eating our vegetables like we’re kids who don’t know better. But ordinary people are paying for those decisions every time we fill up the car, pay an energy bill or walk around a supermarket. And for what?

A fading empire? The longer the war disrupts energy routes, the more incentive countries have to secure their own supply chains, diversify their trade and reduce dependence AWAY from Western-controlled systems.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing with BRICS. This summit in India is big news, and no one is talking about it.

BRICS leaders are pushing for greater use of national currencies, reform away from Western financial institutions and systems controlled by the West.

They’re no longer doing this in secret meetings, they’re creating a new world order out in the open.

Once enough countries to decide they don’t want to depend on the old master anymore.. it’s over.

And every sanction, every war and every energy shock accelerates that process. Trump is speedrunning this. U.S. ability to dictate the rules to everyone else is vanishing in real time.

That’s one silver lining, but we are paying for the transition.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Ed Sheeran sacrificed his legacy for Israel, at the command of a pedophile.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Today’s Geopolitics Rundown:

1. TRUMP WANTS TO RENAME THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AFTER HIMSELF. HE ALSO JUST SAID WHEN THE WAR ENDS.

"I think the war is going to end immediately after the election." Not when Iran capitulates. Not when Hormuz reopens. After the midterms.

2. SHIP TRAFFIC THROUGH HORMUZ JUST HIT ITS LOWEST POINT SINCE MAY

The US keeps insisting the waterway is "fully open." Ships aren't behaving like it's open..

3. BRICS LEADERS ARRIVE IN 48 HOURS

Iran is a full BRICS member. The summit's joint declaration is reportedly stuck on how to reference "conflicts in West Asia"

4. NETANYAHU JUST ORDERED THE SETTLER OUTPOSTS DISMANTLED

Unauthorized outposts have been reportedly ordered removed under direct US pressure, this comes the same week the UK/France/Canada sanctions package hit. SANCTIONS WORK

5. Amnesty International's latest report accuses Israel of continuing genocide conditions in Gaza even after the ceasefire, and documents 1,658 West Bank buildings demolished this year alone.

6. Israeli forces shot and killed another Palestinian man during West Bank raids this week, not an isolated incident.

6. Six US House members issued a rare bipartisan letter pressing the administration to push Israel over withheld Palestinian Authority funds.

7. Vice President Vance called Iran's leadership "really crazy" with "not a whole lot of strategic wisdom.” Just lol.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Today’s no bs geopolitics round up:

1. Iran claims it struck a US unmanned vessel; the US, of course, denies it.

2. At least five people were reportedly killed this week in a US bombardment near the site of the minab school massacre. American terrorism.

3. The new “exclusion zone” will reportedly run from the existing US naval blockade line into the Persian Gulf, beyond Iran’s borders.

4. Oil sits just under $100 a barrel, still elevated on the standoff.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Today’s geopolitics rundown;

1. Iran Just Threatened South Korea. They were warned directly by Iran’s Foreign Ministry that any more active naval role near Hormuz “will be considered complicity in overt military aggression.”

2. Trump has issued the same “ultimatum” and let it slide at least three times since March, per PBS.

3. CENTCOM says it cleared uncharted mines from the strait last week, even as new attacks continue.

4. Iran threatened “more intense and more painful” retaliation after the US struck three of its tankers over the weekend.

5. Delhi is shutting down over 35 roads and closing schools citywide for BRICS summit security. This BRICS summit will be momentous.

6. The summit’s theme is officially “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability” basically a NEW WORLD ORDER.

7. Naval analysts say Gulf states and Iraq have kept oil flowing around the blockade through a workaround network that is quietly growing.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Today’s geopolitics round-up

1. Iran has given itself a new “restricted zone” EXPANDING its sphere of influence outside Hormuz and sanctioning any ship that enters it.

2. CENTCOM says it redirected 92 commercial vessels and disabled or boarded five in the strait this weekend.

3. Iran’s IRGC statement referred to “vessels affiliated with the child-killing America” their rhetoric is hardening.

4. OPEC+ kept October output unchanged, saying Hormuz disruptions have already curbed the group’s own pricing power. A massive admission.

5. Trump has reportedly given Iran until TUESDAY NIGHT to reopen the strait, a concrete deadline worth tracking.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

Your daily geopolitics round up:

1. Iran retaliated for the Larak Island strikes by hitting US-linked bases in the UAE and Jordan. Trump said Iran is “dead” yet they fire back within hours.

2. September’s calendar: Xi and Trump will meet, UN General Assembly, SCO summit, and a BRICS+ gathering are all happening this month.

3. The UN’s Security Council is searching for its next Secretary-General “amid rising conflict… and growing strain on multilateral institutions.” This is an admission of failure.

4. Russia’s Northern Sea Route just launched its first regular commercial shipping service, this is a Hormuz chokepoint BYPASS.

5. China’s new PL-17 missile is reportedly forcing a rethink of Western air-to-air missile design.

6.A Cloudflare outage took down roughly 20% of the internet for hours this week including Uber, Spotify, X. One company has this much reach.

7. Brazil’s 2026 election is ramping up and being framed as a test case for “active non-alignment” for a sovereign country against the Epstein class.

8. Niger’s junta government is reportedly under siege amid a new wave of instability.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

ISRAEL BOMBED SYRIA JUST TO SEND TURKEY A MESSAGE.

Wanted war criminal Netanyahu justification for the illegal air strikes: Turkish troops were “about to deploy” at a Syrian airbase near the Turkish border.

Netanyahu: “We conveyed the message: don’t. But apparently they didn’t hear it, so we made sure they understood it better.”

But, of course, it’s all lies, US Ambassador Tom Barrack confirmed the “intelligence” came from Israel itself and that US intelligence did its own review and found NO BASIS for the claim.

Washington’s expressed “deep concern” over “unnecessary escalation.”

You know it’s bad if the U.S. government is publicly rebuking its boss.

Israel is terrified of Türkiye.

[The Sameer Project @sameerproject]

Here you can see how both the young and the old alike are struggling. Doing whatever it takes to bring water home to their families. https://t.co/6l9JFjXgdv

Translating Falasteen (@translatingpal) x The Sameer Project is being asked to provide more water, but while the situation in Gaza is not changing our donations are and we cannot keep up.

We supplied 328,000 liters on July 6 to areas in the North that need this support.

Assist Gaza during this time when the occupation is imposing calculated water shortages. Donate for Food and Water.

Other ways to donate include:
https://t.co/OmIU4SiNtb (Paypal option, please make sure to add a message saying "WATER")
https://t.co/fWlJpZkj23 (Venmo option, please make sure to add a message saying "WATER")

[Crypt0men 🇲🇦 @Crypt0men]

Spanish war crimes in the Rif War in northern Morocco.

This is why Ceuta remains under Spanish occupation. Spain and France plundered Morocco's resources for decades.

The people of the Rif continue to suffer from this catastrophe. Until now, most of the Rif population has cancer and many diseases, akin to Chernobyl but with chemical weapons.

لماذا لم تحرروا سبتة ومليلية
الاسبان تحالفوا مع فرنسا وضربوا المقاومة بالكيماوي الذي جاؤوا به من عند الالمان
يعني تحالف من ثلات دول استعمارية ضد مقاومين حفاة ببنادق
#Ceuta #Melilla #Immigrants

[The Sameer Project @sameerproject]

Everyone is just trying to survive today. Because how do you plan for the future when tomorrow is also another uncertainty?

Support Gaza now: https://t.co/6l9JFjWInX

This family was forced off the land where they had been sheltering. After already losing their home, they now lives on a flat stretch of exposed dirt because there is nowhere else to go. Even in the middle of summer, this father is already terrified of winter, knowing that when the rains come, the ground beneath the tent will turn to mud and the shelter keeping his family alive could sink beneath them.

There is no rest. No stability. These tents were never meant to become permanent, yet families have spent years moving from one temporary place to another.

The Sameer Project met this family while distributing 30 fresh fruit parcels to Al Amer Camp in Nuseirat. Each parcel contained 1 kilogram each of apples, oranges, apricots, bananas, and plums - fresh fruit is rare for many families in Gaza! The total was $598 including 11% banking commission fees.

Fruit is momentary normalcy but there must be a longer term plan, hope, something to cling on to for tomorrow to make today more bearable. Help support families in Gaza and give to our Food and Water Campaign: https://t.co/6l9JFjWInX

Other ways to donate include:
https://t.co/OmIU4SifDD (Paypal option, please make sure to add a message saying "FOOD")
https://t.co/WNZu0ERJci (Venmo option, please make sure to add a message saying "FOOD")

[Marcus d’Osint 🎒🕊️ @WarFrontIntel]

Mo is already attempting to build the future while living in a tent.

He’s a software engineer coding an online education platform so kids in Gaza aged 5 - 17 can still access real learning materials even as everything around them is no more.

Getting him and his family to Italy doesn’t just save one software engineer, but it keeps that platform (and the next generation’s chance at education) alive.

If your circle is different from the usual Palestine accounts, this is the post that needs your quote or RT the most. $5–$20 or a simple share from new eyes can finish the first goal and open the door.

Link in the quoted post. Let’s push it past the usual networks tonight. 🇮🇹 🇵🇸

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

SAUDI ARABIA SPENT 5 MONTHS BUILDING AN ESCAPE ROUTE FROM IRAN. THE HOUTHIS JUST CLOSED IT.

When Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia didn't panic.

It rerouted oil 1,200 kilometers overland through the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, sacrificing natural-gas-liquids revenue to push capacity from 5 million to 7 million barrels a day.

It’s actually a genuine engineering and economic achievement, built in months, designed to make the kingdom's oil exports untouchable by Iran.

This week, the Houthis put a spanner in the works.

THE SQUEEZE

On July 20, Yemen's Houthi movement declared a full naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.

By Friday, they hit the source directly: missiles and drones on Aramco's Jizan refinery, and a simultaneous strike on the Yanbu export terminal, the exact port the kingdom built its Hormuz workaround around.

NASA's satellite fire-detection system confirmed multiple thermal anomalies at Jizan at 1:17am UTC. Brent crude broke back above $100 a barrel within hours.

Here's the part that makes this more than another rocket over the Red Sea: every barrel Yanbu loads still has to exit through the Bab al-Mandeb strait to reach open water. Iran controls the door on one side of the peninsula. The Houthis, backed by Iran, now threaten the only other one.

WHO SAYS WHAT

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree framed it as retaliation, not initiation, accusing Saudi of "escalation" after Saudi strikes on Hodeidah, and vowing to answer "escalation with escalation."

Yemen's government says the Houthis are using the strait "to serve Iran's regional agenda and strengthen Tehran's negotiating position"

The Houthis have a real grievance, a blockade Riyadh has enforced on Yemen for over a decade, and Iran has a real interest in every additional lever it can pull on Saudi Arabia while its own war with Washington grinds on.

FLIP THE SEATS

Picture the Saudi energy ministry official who spent five months and real money solving the Hormuz problem, converting NGL infrastructure, pushing throughput past design limits, briefing the world that the kingdom had insulated itself from Iranian leverage.

Now picture that same person watching satellite footage of Yanbu-bound crude burning at the refinery gate, in a port they specifically chose because it wasn't supposed to be anyone's chokepoint.

The lesson isn't that the pipeline was badly planned. It's that in a region with this many armed, motivated actors, there is no single fix.

THE BIGGER PATTERN

This isn't the tidy version of multipolarity, a single rising bloc calmly displacing a single declining hegemon.

It's messier than that, and more honest: when no one power can fully guarantee the safety of the world's oil, the number of actors who can threaten it doesn't shrink to two. It grows. Iran doesn't need to personally close both routes. It just needs an ally willing to close the second one for its own reasons, at the moment that reinforces Iran's position most.

The Unipolar Order is discovering it never had as many fronts covered as it thought.

Saudi Arabia will likely find a third route eventually.

The question worth sitting with is how long the kingdom, the world and the price of gas everywhere can survive the search.

[Marcus d’Osint 🎒🕊️ @WarFrontIntel]

Please don’t scroll past Mo. 🇵🇸✈️🇮🇹🧑‍🎓

Mohammed aka Mo is a 23-year-old Palestinian software engineer from Beit Hanoun, Gaza. He should be finishing his studies and building a future in technology. Instead, the past three years of his life have been consumed by genocide, bombs, displacement, loss and the daily struggle to keep his family alive. They are now living in a tent in Khan Younis.

We have a real opportunity to help get Mo and his family out of Gaza and give him the chance to continue his education in Italy, but we need to move quickly. First, we’re raising $2,000 to cover the family’s immediate living expenses for the next few weeks. We’re currently at just $250.

Once their urgent needs are covered, we can focus on raising the money needed for Mo’s university fees and visa while working to secure the necessary approvals from his university and the Italian government.

I have 32,000 followers. If even a small number of you donate $5, $10 or $20, or simply repost this, we can reach the first goal quickly and move one step closer to getting this young man and his family to safety.

Please help us give Mo a future beyond survival.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

He tapped out again.

[Casual Geopolitics @Adamemedia]

𝕏 Marks the Spot Article #3

D-Day Hypocrisy.

Tomorrow is the 82nd anniversary of D-Day. Flags will wave, veterans will be saluted, and politicians will deliver solemn speeches about the Greatest Generation who stormed the beaches of Normandy to defeat tyranny and secure freedom.

That part deserves every ounce of respect. Those men faced machine-gun fire and certain death believing they were ending a nightmare so their kids wouldn’t have to.

But let’s not pretend the bigger picture stopped there.

The same military-industrial complex that Eisenhower, the Supreme Allied Commander on D-Day, later warned us about has turned their sacrifice into an endless profit engine.

Post-WWII America was supposed to come home and enjoy the peace they bought with blood. Instead, you got Korea, Vietnam, Iraq (twice), Afghanistan, and a dozen lesser “interventions” sold with the same recycled script:

existential threats, glowing intelligence reports, and promises of democracy that somehow always required billions in contracts.

Phantom enemies replaced the real ones.

Defense budgets ballooned. Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and their peers raked in record profits while the body count and the VA waiting lists grew.

The revolving door between the Pentagon, Congress, and boardrooms never stopped spinning.

The elites who cheer “support the troops” send other people’s sons and daughters to the next desert or jungle while their own kids intern at think tanks or hedge funds.

This isn’t about disrespecting the men who stormed the Beach. It’s about refusing to let their memory be hijacked as marketing copy for the next profitable conflict.

Real honor would mean learning the actual lesson of D-Day: war is bad.

Endless foreign entanglements and forever wars betray everything those soldiers died for.

Time to break the cycle of war support instead of repeating it on the anniversary of the day we were supposed to end them for good.