@pulte When Trump picked you we all banged the table cheering. We thought Fannie & Freddie would finally be released. Almost 2 years later $FNMA $FMCC still in conservatorship after 33+ profitable quarters. When do we get the release?
@ArgueAlone I appreciate the discussion on the past. But let’s think about the coming Davos meeting and potential uplisting and so forth. What is your opinion on the impact to common in Q1 and the rest of 2026?
It seems uplist this year and release from conservatorship in Trumps last year
@BillAckman@DrSouthern@X@realDonaldTrump@pulte Are $FNMA and $FMCC common shareholders going to get wiped out or not at this point?
Also - is conservatorship going to be indefinite?
Finally - what are the SPS LP status? What do you think will happen there?
Thank you, sir
@ethan2369 Dilution will happen but to be a part of $300 billion - $1 trillion pie should mean all shareholders do well, post dilution. At least during the secondary offering. Otherwise, the 10-k suggests both Jr. and Common get wiped out. Which is it?
@pulte@BillAckman@realDonaldTrump
It seems junior preferred and common shareholders are in the same boat. Is the thesis that despite expected dilution from warrants, the companies' market caps will grow so that everyone's smaller % will result in a net financial gain?
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@DoNotLose@Fanniegate101 Base‑step vs. choice: For the near‑term relist/sale, officials have repeatedly hinted at a small Treasury sell‑down while staying in conservatorship. That can be done as a Treasury secondary with no new company shares (i.e., no dilution in that step). 2/2
@DoNotLose@Fanniegate101 Fact: There is no current conversion right. Any SPS conversion would require an amendment/exchange you will be able to read.
•Feasibility: Such an amendment is administratively feasible in conservatorship. So a conversion‑first recap is plausible. 1/2
@timpagliara@ethan2369@World_21m@DoNotLose@BillAckman@blue_eyes3532 A simple Treasury secondary. They can raise the target ~$30B by selling a small slice of their existing stake—no new shares, no conversion, no dilution.
It comes down to this: The conversion is about politics and optics, not a technical requirement for the initial sale. 2/2
@timpagliara@ethan2369@World_21m@DoNotLose@BillAckman@blue_eyes3532 An important distinction here. Your math is internally consistent, but it rests on a key assumption that's a policy choice, not a necessity.
The Sr. Pref VWAP conversion is just one path. It creates the massive dilution that gets you to that ~$8-10 price.
1/2
@HollandStanley If leadership prioritizes “max % now” over pricing/multiple, they will embed a conversion and common will take the hit. You’ll see it immediately in the documents; there’s no stealth way to hide.
3/3
@HollandStanley A wipeout in phase‑1 is possible because SPS→common can be done inside conservatorship without violating the “don’t widen spreads” constraint. That’s the intellectual core of the JPS camp’s confidence.
1/3
@HollandStanley It is not the most likely path for this first step based on the way officials have framed it (small Treasury sale, “already oversubscribed,” conservatorship continuing). The simplest way to raise ~$30B is a secondary, and it avoids a day‑one PR disaster.
2/3