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I created a new hypothetical chart based on @TruthAnswersAll work shown below.
https://t.co/MuowuEB9EP

[Truth Is Freedom @TruthAnswersAll]

THE 15% BAND

Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.

The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.

One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024

For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.

The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%

Variation explained: 88%

What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.

The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.

Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.

What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.

A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.

The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.

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@jaketapper Did your wife's boyfriend tell you to write that?

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@BobGolen Good for them. All they had to do was follow the law.

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NOTHING CAN STOP WHAT IS COMING

[il Donaldo Trumpo @PapiTrumpo]

NOTHING CAN STOP WHAT'S COMING!!!😎🇺🇸⚡️⚡️⚡️

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@PapiTrumpo NOTHING!

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@GuntherEagleman https://t.co/wZiqdL3Ma4

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@catturd2 https://t.co/wZiqdL3Ma4

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@GuntherEagleman https://t.co/wZiqdL3ekw

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@foxnewspolitics https://t.co/wZiqdL3ekw

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@Shawn_Farash https://t.co/wZiqdL3ekw

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@WallStreetMav https://t.co/wZiqdL3ekw

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@EricLDaugh https://t.co/wZiqdL3Ma4

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@BrightInsight6 https://t.co/wZiqdL3Ma4

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@BrightInsight6 https://t.co/wZiqdL3Ma4

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@LeaderJohnThune https://t.co/wZiqdL3Ma4

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@LeaderJohnThune https://t.co/wZiqdL3ekw

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@ExposingEvil704 https://t.co/wZiqdL3Ma4

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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Did Sen. John Thune join the black eye club?

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@BrightInsight6 100% - With makeup

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@BrightInsight6 100%

With a lot of makeup on it

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@tomselliott Trump can't pass real legislation because the Swamp is hell-bent at blocking him at every opportunity. Trump has to govern via EO.