THE 15% BAND
Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.
The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.
One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024
For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.
The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%
Variation explained: 88%
What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.
The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.
Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.
What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.
A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.
The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
Folks, I have spent literally the entire day trying to get someone at AOL to unlock my email. For the last eight hours, I have been told that the issue has been escalated to supervisors who would contact me. I haven't heard a thing.
You would think that, since I'm one of the last human beings on the face of the Earth still using AOL, they would take care of this. You'd be wrong.
So, once this gets resolved, hopefully before the next presidential election, I'm dropping them. (I kept them this long out of convenience, but now I have no reason to keep them.)
I'll see you on the radio at 6 p.m., at which time I will address this further.
@marklevinshow I subscribed to your newsletter but my pager isn't going off to let me know when you drop new content. I should probably reach out to Motorola and give them a piece of my mind... after I figure out how to turn on my lights... CLAP CLAP.... CLAP CLAP... CLAP CLAP... GODDAMIT!!!!
Folks, I have spent literally the entire day trying to get someone at AOL to unlock my email. For the last eight hours, I have been told that the issue has been escalated to supervisors who would contact me. I haven't heard a thing.
You would think that, since I'm one of the last human beings on the face of the Earth still using AOL, they would take care of this. You'd be wrong.
So, once this gets resolved, hopefully before the next presidential election, I'm dropping them. (I kept them this long out of convenience, but now I have no reason to keep them.)
I'll see you on the radio at 6 p.m., at which time I will address this further.
🚨 UPDATE: 8 people charged in Sex Ring “Underground Bunker” for Paying adults to Rape their Children and Pets — Ages 3-16. Trial delayed as mom pleads guilty and flips on co-defendants
In Bibb County, Alabama, eight suspects ran a sex trafficking ring out of an underground bunker where children as young as 3 were drugged, bound, and raped with adults paying to abuse them.
Animals were also targeted.
Rebecca Brewer and mother of some of the victims, pleaded guilty to sexual torture and nine counts of first-degree kidnapping. As part of the deal she agreed to testify against the other seven defendants.
The trial for the remaining suspects has been delayed while the case expands, including a federal investigation into at least one of them.
These monsters turned their own kids and pets into victims for profit.
How long will it take for every last one of them to face real justice?