AflGains

Data scientist and sport enthusiast

[AflGains @AflGains]

The first 3 eps of my small youtube course on Bayesian Inference with @mcmc_stan is now available youtube https://t.co/RWJv8LtuWm! It's a practical intro for beginners who want to code as soon as possible without all of the scary math. Enjoy!

[AflGains @AflGains]

@BOM_au hey there! Just letting you know your long term ACORN-SAT station data only goes to the end of 2022!! Is there a way to get the 2023 data? Am I doing something wrong?

[AflGains @AflGains]

@_Jack_FG Cricinfo statsguru. Did a query and then scraped the result using beautiful soup

[AflGains @AflGains]

First dabble in cricket stats! Everyone knows The Don had the highest average, but he also smokes everyone when compared with their best streaks in their career. Highlights for second are Smith's 80 in 77 innings and Andy Flower's whopping 91 in 34 innings!

[AflGains @AflGains]

Bails not counted?? Why?!?? Bails have always been a part of the wicket and stumps!!?

[AflGains @AflGains]

@MatterOfStats @AflGlicko Imo you have a miscalibrated model. I think “Poor” is very context dependent. All models are wrong etc. etc.

[AflGains @AflGains]

@MatterOfStats **theoretical physics has left the chat**

[AflGains @AflGains]

Part 2 of using ChatGPT4 to do Bayesian Inference is out! Last video I didn't really explain what ChatGPT has written, I just copy pasted. This time, I explain what it's code does and suggest 3 improvements that make the predictions much better! https://t.co/BteXfJ5nEP

[AflGains @AflGains]

In my latest video, I use @OpenAI 's ChatGPT to write me a @mcmc_stan code to predict @premierleague matches! Without much prompting, it ended up using a simple ELO model on Margin. Check out part 1 here! https://t.co/uDDtcK2ynk

[AflGains @AflGains]

@OpenAI's ChatGPT can be used to do Bayesian Inference!
In the first part of this two part video series I use ChatGPT to write some @mcmc_stancCode to predict premier league matches using a simple ELO style model. Check it out!
https://t.co/bIStQFS4Wn

[AflGains @AflGains]

Pumping out the videos now. Here's a new fun video about "target+=" in Stan. https://t.co/4WLfFteQbz

If you didn't understand any of that but you're interested in Bayesian Stats, maybe check out the first four episode of my Bayesian Inference Course here! https://t.co/ANH0kt5PKx

[AflGains @AflGains]

❤️💛💙

[AflGains @AflGains]

Ep4 of Bayesian Inference with @mcmc_stan is out! https://t.co/RDkVOC6yUT. In this episode we build a Bayesian Logistic Regression model to predict the outcome of AFL matches! Use this if you want to getting better at tipping!

[AflGains @AflGains]

Episode 4 of Bayesian Inference with Stan being edited! In this episode we use a Bayesian model to predict #AFL matches

[AflGains @AflGains]

@betanalpha Thanks for watching! Learn't a lot from your blogs!

[AflGains @AflGains]

@MatterOfStats Sports outcomes are probabilistic but the consequences of the realised outcome is deterministic - 3 points for a win irrespective of how unlikely it was. So it’s understandable that people tend to correlate consequence with ability - otherwise what do we pay them for ?

[AflGains @AflGains]

@martyn_plummer Got it. Thanks for the reply, I'll give you an email!
Thank you very much!

[AflGains @AflGains]

@martyn_plummer I’m genuinely confused. To clarify, are you asking me write you an email to ask for the paper so you can send it across?

[AflGains @AflGains]

@martyn_plummer Sorry aren’t you the author ?

[AflGains @AflGains]

Who made this graph and why are three of the colours used twice!!??