Danantara Siapkan Rp225 Triliun!
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26 Proyek Hilirisasi Siap Dijalankan!
Pemerintah melalui Danantara tengah menggarakkan 26 proyek hilirisasi strategis nasional dengan total investasi mencapai Rp225 triliun.
Major cheat code for life: Build a boring baseline. Go to bed early. Wake up early. Move your body. Eat simple foods. Save money. Read good books. Avoid drama. Be present. Listen intently. Change your mind. The inputs may not look impressive, but the results certainly do.
BE THAT GUY
Obsess over becoming better. Read old books. Learn underrated skills. Practice different sports. Master various martial arts. Study mathematics. Speak multiple languages. Become unpredictable. The healthiest person in the room. Moneymaxx. Help those in need. Inspire people. Show what greatness really is.
In the pursuit of your life’s main purpose, your energy should, in parallel, go toward upgrading your character.
Not only will it speed up the process of achieving your goals, but it will also make you feel more fulfilled throughout the journey.
Morgan Stanley: Bearings
The Big Picture: Bearings as a Core Robotics Play
> Architecture-Agnostic Growth: Bearings offer a diversified way to invest in the robotics sector because they are required regardless of a robot's ultimate design or form factor.
> Massive Market Expansion: Morgan Stanley forecasts a massive ~300x growth in the robot bearings market through the year 2050.
> Low Risk of Obsolescence: Bearings face very low substitution, in-sourcing, or obsolescence risks—you simply cannot design moving machines around them.
> OpenAI Endorsement: In a recent Request for Proposal (RFP) for U.S.-based hardware manufacturing capacity, OpenAI listed precision bearings as 1 of 6 critical components in its robotics category.
Content Scales with Robot Complexity
> Bearings 101: Every single motor in a robot requires at least one or more bearings to reduce friction and support rotating parts.
> Degrees of Freedom (DoF): As robots get more complex, the number of bearings multiplies.
Small quadcopter drone: Requires 8–12 bearings.
Humanoid robot: Requires 70 or more bearings.
> Pricing Variability: Depending on the specific use-case, individual bearings can range from under $1 to as much as $100
Global Bearings Market Dynamics
> Consolidated Supply: The top 6 global manufacturers control over 50% of the global roller market, with Chinese manufacturers making up about 25%.
> Current Demand Split: Roughly 40% of the overall market goes to industrial equipment OEMs, 30% to automotive, and 30 to distribution channels
Terkait under-invoicing, ada salah satu data yang menarik di report komoditas by Samuel Sekuritas ini: analis bandingin data ekspor komoditas versi Indonesia (BPS) dengan data impor versi mitra dagang (World Bank/WITS) buat coal, CPO, dan ferro-nickel selama 2020-2024, untuk ngeliat ada gap seberapa besar di antara kedua data.
Dokumen ini menyebut perbedaan kedua data itu bisa jadi didorong oleh gap valuasi CIF/FOB. FOB (Free on Board) itu harga barang sampai di pelabuhan pengirim saja, belum termasuk ongkos kirim. CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) itu harga barang plus ongkos kirim dan asuransi sampai ke pelabuhan tujuan. Data ekspor biasanya dicatat pakai FOB, data impor biasanya dicatat pakai CIF, makanya angka impor wajarnya sedikit lebih besar dari angka ekspor.
Nah untuk masing-masing ternyata seperti ini:
⚪️Coal (Figure 5): gap di 2024 tercatat -5.3%, disebut "relatively modest" di laporan ini, alias masih kecil dan dianggap wajar.
⚪️Ferro-nickel (Figure 6): polanya kebalikan, +3.2% di 2024, menandakan nilai ekspor Indonesia yang dilaporkan justru melebihi data impor mitra dagang.
⚪️CPO: gap-nya di kisaran ~30%, disebut "relatively high", alias jauh lebih lebar dari yang bisa dijelaskan cuma dari gap CIF/FOB biasa 🤔👀
Karena itu juga, laporan ini secara eksplisit kasih urutan risiko ketidaksesuaian data (bisa mengindikasikan under-invoicing atau transfer mispricing) dari yang paling tinggi ke rendah: CPO > Coal > FeNi.
#RangkumReport
gak wajib punya kendaraan pribadi, kemana-mana pakai transum its totally fine, jalan kaki sendiri gak bakal diliatin, lu bisa jadi diri lu sendiri disini :)
Abis baca (lupa dimana) kalo terlalu mengaitkan value diri sama hal konkrit (kayak hobi, pekerjaan, peran) itu membuat sense of self jadi lemah.
Dianjurkan untuk mengaitkan personality sama value yang lebih abstrak dan kuat (kayak integritas, keterbukaan, kejujuran).
Inget selama lo masih karyawan you’ve no right to call anyone miskin. Just because you can afford the lifestyle that most people can only dream about it doesn’t mean ur better. Remember where you came from if god can give you an abundance of blessings He can take it back
Setelah beberapa tahun investasi, gw sadar satu hal:
Investing bukan cuma soal cuan, tapi juga soal menikmati hidup dan enjoy the process.
Kalau tiap hari cuma mantengin portfolio, panik tiap market merah, lama-lama capek juga. Market akan selalu penuh drama, and that’s normal.
Menurut gw, ada beberapa hal penting:
Pertama, self control.Musuh terbesar sering kali diri sendiri: FOMO, panik, ego. Kontrol emosi biar nggak bikin keputusan bodoh.
Kedua, basic investasi.Pahami bisnisnya, sumber profit, utang, dan valuasi. Ini yang bikin kita lebih tenang saat harga naik turun.
Ketiga, scuttlebutt.Lihat langsung bisnisnya. Produknya dipakai nggak? Customer puas nggak? Kadang insight justru datang dari hal-hal sederhana.
Keempat, independent thinking.Jangan cuma ikut-ikutan. Dengar orang lain boleh, tapi keputusan tetap harus dari diri sendiri.
Kelima, patience.Compounding butuh waktu. Kadang tugas investor bukan banyak gerak, tapi cukup duduk diam dan kasih waktu.
Dan di sinilah pentingnya enjoy life.
Jangan terlalu attached sama portfolio sampai lupa hidup: keluarga, teman, dan kesehatan.
Investasi yang sehat harus bikin hidup lebih ringan, bukan lebih berat.
The end goal bukan cuma kaya, tapi hidup yang lebih baik: lebih banyak waktu, lebih banyak pilihan, dan lebih banyak ketenangan.
So learn the game, control your emotion, do your research, and be patient.
But don’t forget to enjoy life.
Karena percuma cuan di market, kalau kita lupa cara hidup dengan tenang.
Good night, sleep well. See yeaaa when I seaa you again. 😉
@ChatibBasri Pak sesekali komentar dong ttg tesis menkeu perihal growth indonesia. di era sby hanya didorong private tanpa gov, sdangkan di era jkw hanya didorong gov tanpa private. Utk ke 8% kedua mesin itu hrs jalan, base on money supply yg sering dibilang menkeu...