Alberto Gil

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@AC__research What's your price range if license get renewed ??

[Arborator Capital Research @AC__research]

A few additional thoughts on why we believe Arrow remains one of the most attractive risk/reward opportunities in our portfolio.

The market is currently focused almost entirely on the Tapir license expiry in 2028. In our view, that creates the opportunity.

Even in a bearish scenario where the license is not extended, the company should still generate substantial cash flow before expiry. Based on our estimates, Arrow could accumulate roughly $70-80M of net cash by 2028 after CAPEX, which is remarkably close to its current market capitalization. CAPEX for current year is around 24M.

In other words, the downside case is far from a “zero”.

Meanwhile, the upside case includes multiple catalysts:

• Extension of the Tapir license
• Additional Icaco discoveries
• Higher reserve estimates
• Production growth beyond current expectations
• Potential acquisitions from larger operators
• Future dividends and share buybacks
• Higher oil prices

The recent Colombian election result matters because a more pro-business government could significantly improve the probability of license extensions and encourage additional investment into the country’s energy sector.

This is also one of the reasons why we believe Arrow may benefit more than $EC or $GPRK from a positive shift in political sentiment.

Another point often overlooked is that management continues investing heavily into infrastructure, exploration, and development. If they genuinely believed there was little chance of extending Tapir, much of that investment would make little economic sense.

Management has repeatedly communicated confidence regarding the future of the asset.

On top of that, recent drilling results have been encouraging, and several wells have exceeded expectations. We believe production may ultimately end up higher than current market forecasts.

The long-term target communicated by management is approximately 10,000 barrels per day versus roughly 5,000 barrels per day today.

If they get anywhere close to that target, the economics become extremely attractive.

Oil price sensitivity remains another key part of the thesis.

Assuming roughly 5,000 barrels per day of production and a realized oil price around $12 below Brent:

• Brent $70 → approximately $45M annual operating cash flow
• Brent $80 → approximately $64M annual operating cash flow
• Brent $90 → approximately $82M annual operating cash flow
• Brent $100 → approximately $100M annual operating cash flow

For reference, the company’s current market capitalization is only around $105M. EV 80m

And unlike many producers, Arrow has no meaningful hedging program. If oil prices rise, the benefit flows almost directly into cash flow.

Nobody knows what will happen in the Middle East. If geopolitical tensions ease, we still believe Arrow remains undervalued based on its cash generation alone.

If oil prices stay elevated and some of the company-specific catalysts materialize, the upside could be significantly higher.

For now, we continue to view Arrow as one of the best asymmetric oil opportunities we have found.
2/2

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@albertrjf Price target after license renewal!? 😆🤔

[conduct|r @conductr_]

I am OBSESSED with this sentence:

“A head full of fears has no space for dreams.”

damn.

[Digi @digiii]

the best skill you can develop is to learn how to stay in a good mood even when there are a million reasons not to

[Max @MaxTorchbearer]

RECOVER FASTER THAN EVERYONE

Lose the day. Come back at night. Miss the gym. Go tomorrow. Waste a week. Win the next one. Get embarrassed. Stay visible. Get rejected. Try again. Fall behind. Move anyway. Stop turning every mistake into a new identity. Stop making failure mean more than it does. Stop disappearing every time life proves you’re still human. The men who win aren’t perfect. They just don’t stay gone.

The cheat code is simple.

Become impossible to keep down.

[Corey Walker 🇺🇸 @CoreyWriting]

This actually ended up being correct.

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@AbrilQuim Entonces haces los modelos con esta curva?

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.

You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.

The whole point was the rules.

The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.

After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.

For 23 years, those rules held.

Then SpaceX filed for IPO.

And the rules changed.

The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.

Except the rules used to say they didn't.

Here's the thought exercise:

If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?

Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.

A rule binds the rule-maker.

A guideline binds the saver.

You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@ivanguzmanpons Como ves que le afecte el accidente a la tesis?

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@LocosWallStreet @ProfesorDiv Está la grabación en algún lado?

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@PK_Fund So you expecting a correction short term before going up?

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@PaezFinance @lwsresearch No me quiero registrar en la newsletter jaja pero ya soy miembro de research y me da curiosidad la empresa

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@PaezFinance @lwsresearch Está en la web?

[Miguel Páez @PaezFinance]

https://t.co/1gk0b3e7aN

[Albert Millan @albertrjf]

Little by little even the laggards will catch up to what is going on! Higher for longer and we are well positioned to capitalize on it

[Antonio Rodríguez @Antonio_RodriIA]

“Cuando empiezas a caminar por el camino, el camino aparece.”

- Rumi

[Alberto Gil @Alberto_gil_24]

@fedex774 I mean, last year it did a 7x, right?
I didn't explain myself