Alex

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority,
but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

WAT!

Microsoft: "Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027." $DRAM $MU

[My berner @berner_my]

@bubbleboi When the shoe was on the other foot, Apple squeezed the fuck out of dram.

No crying int he casino.

[Zay Capital @cap_zay]

When commodity producers is struggling everyone closes their eyes and pads their pocket.

Commodity prices spike. PrIcE gOuGing. Tale as old as time.

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$MU Micron Chief Business Officer: Aggressive customer pricing during the 2023 memory downturn curtailed investment & worsened today’s supply tightness

"We told a couple of the customers who were being very aggressive with pricing at that time that this is not constructive. A lot of the industry investments got shut down in 2023 because of really poor pricing and really poor margins."

[Bambulu @Bqmbulu]

“If you haven't read hundreds of books, you are functionally illiterate, and you will be incompetent, because your personal experiences alone aren't broad enough to sustain you.”

— James N. Mattis

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Samsung: a memory chip worker with a base ​salary of $52k is expected to receive a total bonus of around $410k this year

SK Hynix: employees are expected to receive bonuses of more than $454k

Luxury jewelry sales in S. Korea: +146% YoY
Luxury watch sales in S. Korea: +85% YoY

[Evergreen @evrgn11112231]

Satya out swinging against $MU and $SNDK

*MICROSOFT: XBOX CONSOLES PRICE WILL INCREASE BY $100 FOR 512 GB *MICROSOFT:CONSOLE STORAGE, MEMORY PRICES INCREASED BY OVER 2.5X *MICROSOFT: EXPECT ANOTHER DOUBLING BY THE FALL OF 2027
*MICROSOFT: CONSOLES ARE TYPICALLY NOT SOLD AT A PROFIT

$MSFT

[Compound248 💰 @compound248]

F*cking David Tepper.

Of course he went balls deep memory and semis.

Of course he did.

[Lisan Al Pablo @Pablo01618]

$MU is gonna be 4,000 a share will correct to 2,000 a share and folks will come on here and say with an actual straight face “see I told you memory was cyclical” they will be right but they will also be fucking poor…

[DaRazor @akramsrazor]

$mu with another reminder that memory makes the rest of the datacenter capex chain just look stupid now. At 40bl+ op income next quarter its outearning $aapl $goog $amzn $meta $msft meanwhile $amd been almost same mkt cap and they printed 1.5bl op incom last q. You really want to pay 70x 2028 fcf for optics suppliers when they are both competing against this return profile on the same theme and in the bom. Yes, it won't last for forever but in the case of some stocks the crowding out effect and rent capture is all that matters in this buildout cycle, and they are massive relative losers to this complex.

[Roger @rdd147]

You may hate my $NFLX thesis, but you better respect it. $MU just announced it’s going to take everything from hyperscalers, those hyperscalers need to take everything from their customers.

[ElevenCap @elevencapi]

That MU call must be depressing if you’re heavily long the hyperscalers. Selling a commodity at 90% margins (soon) that will be 1/5th the price in 3 years, but you have to buy it or you lose marketshare. And if you own Meta, Zuck doesnt need to be in this capital pissing context but decided to join.

[Zay Capital @cap_zay]

This is who you're shorting against. Will die or gamma squeeze you to death.

[kerman kohli @kermankohli]

"WE EXPECT TO RETURN 100% OF OUR EXCESS CASH TO SHAREHOLDERS"

DO YOU HEAR THAT ANON.

[Alex @Alex44356093]

Lol

[Barbarian Capital @BarbarianCap]

Micron... their Net Income this Q is more than their revenue last Q (not YoY, last Q) $MU

[SuspendedCap @ContrarianCurse]

Basically no need to own the hypers while they continue to ratchet up capex mostly on the back of memory prices

[TrumpGrift Capital🇺🇦 @Crussian17]

$mu isn’t up because of the beat, it’s a multiple rerate based on the SLA’s that justifies giving it a higher multiple due to more certainty further out.

That said it benefits all of the long duration trade names which were getting hit into the numbers. I still favor $wolf above all others in this area

[Daniel Newman @danielnewmanUV]

$MU forward PE based on its new guide is now around 7. 😎

‘But it’s gone up so much.’ 😆

[Jukan @ICML @jukan05]

I find it hard to understand why some people are interpreting Micron’s latest LTA signing as the end of the memory price upcycle.

Signing an LTA ultimately means that the amount of supply in the market that has not yet been locked up is shrinking. In other words, the later a customer signs an LTA, the greater the pressure they face to secure stable supply, and the stronger their FOMO becomes.

Over time, the fear of failing to secure enough memory will only intensify. That creates an environment where memory makers can secure LTAs on increasingly favorable terms.

I do not think this LTA marks the end of price increases. If anything, I think it is closer to the beginning.