Ignore the “4-year” cycle
Here are 4 top charts going into 2026:
- Business cycle& Bitcoin correlation
- Bitcoin historically undervalued against gold
- 18-year real estate cycle
- 200 year old Benner cycle
Good morning, everyone 😀
BTC - Full update
Chart 1 - Zoomed in
🟧 Intermediate wave 3 far left
🟧 Intermediate wave 4 bottom centre
🟧 Intermediate wave 5 now in play as -
🟦 5 Minor waves
🟦 Minor waves 1 and 2 look complete
🟦 Minor wave 3 is in play as -
🩷 5 Minute waves drawn on the chart
.......
Targets -
🩷 Minute wave 3 - 94k
🟦 Minor wave 3 - 102k
🔴 Primary wave 5 - 120 to 150k
Chart 2 - My FULL EW count
Bottom left you see BTC's low of 15k
🔴 Primary waves 1 to 4 are complete
🔴 Primary wave 1 was -
🟦 Minor waves 1 to 5
🔴 Primary wave 2 was -
🟧 Intermediate waves WXY
🔴 Primary wave 3 was -
🟧 Intermediate waves 1 to 5
🔴 Primary wave 4 was -
🟧 Intermediate waves ABC
🔴 Primary wave 5 is in play as -
🟧 Intermediate waves 1 to 5
🟧 Intermediate waves 1 to 4 look complete
🟧 Intermediate wave 5 is now in play as -
🟦 5 Minor waves drawn on the chart
.......
Targets -
🔴 120 to 150k
THIS WILL COMPLETE THE CYCLE
Validation -
Break above 95k
Invalidation -
Break lower than 76,651
Attached - EW at different degrees
This colour coding shows you the waves at the different degrees I use on ALL my charts
Note - Many are chasing 50 and 60k, oh boy 😬
That's not what I see or have shared all along
Remember - All updates of my favourites are on my homepage in the 'Highlights' section
Reminder - I don't do exact timelines, however the next 60 to 90 days should now be explosive 💥
2025 🚀👍🏻🟧🟧
Glück für #Syrer Mohamed, der 4-jährigem Mädchen mit seinem Messer Darm und Magen zerfetzt:
Der schutzsuchende Gläubige muss nicht in den Knast!
Dafür hetzt der Richter gegen die #AfD.
https://t.co/BdiO5t18XC
An Arab man from Saudi Arabia in a message to Palestinians:
"Who are you trying to fool? You have no land and no case. This land belongs to Israel for the people of Israel. You Palestinians are evil in any country you set foot on!"
@EliAfriatISR A Palestinian mom saw pictures of her ‘injured’ son online, got really worried and rushed to the hospital. Only to find out the blood is fake and he’s just fine.
It’s called Pallywood and her son is an actor.
A Muslim father tells his 3- and 4-year-old daughters to cover their faces because another man is approaching, and it’s haram for Muslim women to be seen by non-relative males.
What a sick culture!
Yapay zeka ve gelişen otomasyon teknolojisi bu arkadaşları işsiz bırakacak.
Gelecekte sizi işsiz bırakacak sistemleri övmeyin bari.
O sistem dostun değil, senin gelecekteki alternatifin.
Şimdi anladın mı tırcı kardeşim!
BTC Update:
My macro outlook remains the same. 45K or lower is almost inevitable.
I am looking for a double-bottom and a relief rally in the short term.
There are two possible paths for the price to take:
1. Direct continuation. If this is the right path, the price should continue directly to 51K.
After 51K is hit, I expect a sustained relief rally.
Confirmation: A break below the 50W EMA (54K). Invalidation: Bullish reaction to 54K.
Possible trade: Look for long trades if the price breaks above 51K.
2. Head and Shoulder Scenario: Bitcoin pushes higher to at least 60K before folding back to 48K. Confirmation: Hold support between 54K and 55K and continuation higher.
Invalidation: Price <54K
Possible Trade: Long if Bitcoin holds at the 50W EMA. Target: 61K.
Best Wishes
#BTC
No significant update to yesterday's short-term analysis. So let us indulge in some long-term perspectives while we await confirmation of the macro wave 4 low for #BTC. Should the 5th Aug low prove to be the final low, then we have a probable weekly w1 top occurring 30 Sept - 14 Oct. Thereafter we may get successive HLs and HHs into a final macro wave 5 top between 27 Jan - 14 Apr at a min. target of $108k - 122k. However, this top would be somewhat short of the statistical 4-year #BTC cycle, thereby we may see a wA low near May 2025 and a wB overthrow into the summer of 2025 to trap the most amount of longs and satisfy the statistical 4-year BTC cycle criteria, likely near Virgo in Q3 2025. Thereafter we would anticipate a 400+ day correction of approx. -70% into a bear market low estimated between 26 Oct - 7 Dec 2026. This forecast would be invalidated if #BTC produces LLs after 9 september 2024, meaning we can not have any new lows after 9 September, otherwise the bull party may have prematurely ended; meaning the entire move up from 21 November 2022 may have been corrective. This forecast has utilised current high-probability data points and is subject to future data confirmation for validation.