Set-piece creators π₯
Szoboszlai is head and shoulders above everyone else. You don't necessarily need much open-play threat when you provide both volume and quality from set pieces.
Robertson stands out for his insane delivery quality despite taking relatively few set pieces.
Hill, Mykolenko and Hall are the only defenders who can combine DEFCON potential with some set-piece threat through corners or throw-ins.
#FPL
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I analysed 3 of the main DEFCON defenders: Muharemovic, Vuskovic and Silva, to understand whether they're capable of maintaining this level.
Possibly the nerdiest content I've ever made. But if you find this enjoyable or helpful in any way, please let me know.
Antonio Silva
What triggered DEFCON?
Cross β 29.5%
Long ball β 11.3%
Ground pass β 9.3%
Shot β 9.1%
Teammate's mistake β 6.9%
Through ball β 5.9%
Set piece β 5.8%
Own mistake β 5.0%
No clear trigger β 4.4%
Data quality:
DEFCONs not on TV β 7.9%
Shouldn't have been classified as DEFCON β 4.9%
Other factors:
Gave the ball away β 11.1%
I thought he would stop hitting DEFCON after looking at what triggered his actions after GW5. But he still faces a lot of terrible crosses and continues to get on the end of clearances that could easily fall to someone else. He's also making a lot more mistakes than he was five weeks ago, which has helped him maintain that DEFCON level.
One of my biggest preseason misjudgements. My head still tells me he shouldn't be able to keep this up, but he keeps getting away with it. I also think the number of mistakes and possession losses is a bit too high for him not to occasionally be dropped for Diakhite.
Tarik Muharemovic
What triggered DEFCON?
After his own mistake β 15.9%
Long ball β 14.1%
Cross β 14.1%
After teammate's mistake β 10.5%
Set piece β 9.1%
Shot β 7.4%
Pass β 6.1%
No clear trigger β 4.1%
Through ball β 2.8%
Data quality:
DEFCONs not on TV β 10.2%
Shouldn't have been classified as DEFCON β 5.7%
Other factors:
Gave the ball away β 13.3%
Tarik is a freak. He clears the ball not only when the situation requires it, but often when it doesn't. Sometimes he even clears it over his own teammates' heads.
The data backs it up. He's top for clearances, but also for hoofing the ball under no pressure. Sadly, a very large percentage of his defensive actions weren't even shown on TV.
Vuskovic
What was behind the actions?
Long ball β 18.1%
No clear trigger β 12.2%
Set piece β 12.1%
Pass β 9.1%
Cross β 9.1%
After his own mistake β 8.9%
Through ball β 8.8%
After teammate's mistake β 8.5%
Shot β 5.9%
Data quality:
Shouldn't have been classified as DEFCON β 4.1%
DEFCONs not on TV β 3.2%
Other factors:
Gave the ball away β 6.6%
He's doing a bit of everything, but the main concern is that his teammates aren't making enough mistakes to give him as many opportunities for last-ditch actions as he had at Hamburger SV, for example.
Brighton aren't particularly afraid of receiving central counters, but they're still quick and good enough on the ball to prevent a lot of those dodgy situations from developing. That's why I expect his DEFCON numbers to be lower than those of the first two.
#FPL
Set-piece creators π₯
Szoboszlai is head and shoulders above everyone else. You don't necessarily need much open-play threat when you provide both volume and quality from set pieces.
Robertson stands out for his insane delivery quality despite taking relatively few set pieces.
Hill, Mykolenko and Hall are the only defenders who can combine DEFCON potential with some set-piece threat through corners or throw-ins.
#FPL
@FPL_Fenerbahce Here's a catch: their set play* xA would be higher, but for FPL we only care about direct threat, Xhaka is still top class, their set piece routines are just less direct
And Ampadu with 0.02/90 of direct threat from long throws is not bad at all
If Tarik Muharemovic maintains his DEFCON hit rate across the season, here's how much attacking output a defender would need to outscore those DC points:
Assists: More than Trent Alexander-Arnold managed in his record-breaking 2019/20 season, and more than any defender has ever recorded in a single season across Europe's top five leagues.
Goal involvements: More than John Lundstram managed in his breakout 2019/20 season.
Goals: More than Marcos Alonso scored in 2017/18. Only Julian Dicks' 1995/96 season would beat that benchmark.
GW11 striker comparison: Barry, Jackson, Evanilson and Isak.
Barry leads almost all the attacking metrics. People have been asking about his fixtures, and it turns out his next 5 aren't even that bad.
Jackson has the most favourable run, while Evanilson has the least favourable. Isak is getting involved but lacks big-chance involvement.
#FPL
Me and the boys have decided to bring back Scouts vs Analysts as a charity project.
We're currently figuring out the best platform for it, but we're also open to experimenting with new formats.
I want to make the most of having access to football professionals, so let us know what you'd find genuinely interesting or useful, thank youπ
I asked 5 professional scouts and 5 performance analysts to pick the highest-scoring players for each position for GW5.
Scouts: Hornicek, Gabriel, Schade, DCL
Analysts: Sels, Thiaw, Saka, DCL
I was surprised to see Kevin Schade again, so I asked about him specifically.
The answer was that Chelsea defending the second phase of attacks is possibly still the most repeatable issue out of all teams, and what happens after the first defensive action when possession changes hands is still their biggest problem. They have a lot of players ahead of the ball, their counterpress doesn't always prevent the opponent's second action, and the defensive line can subsequently be attacked before the structure has reset. Their FB-CB relationships is also awkward when the opponent attacks quickly into the space created by their possession structure. Brentford's ability to attack quickly, contest second balls and attack the box after an initial delivery makes this type of weakness particularly relevant. That's why Mamadou Sangare was also mentioned, but the scouts picked Schade specifically because, on top of that, Chelsea have shown repeated marking errors on set pieces. The idea behind defending them is brilliant, the execution so far... Not so much.
Gabriel and Thiaw were picked mostly for set pieces, with both being mentioned as having less impressive CS potential, but enough upside to be worth the pick.
Bogle and Maitland-Niles were mentioned as the biggest open-play threat defenders this week.
DCL was mentioned as the striker with the most routes to goals against Palace.