Young Lin

Shipping newbie

兔巴哥的門牙

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

歐洲天然氣價格已攀升至伊朗戰爭爆發以來的最高點
歐盟在入冬前的天然氣庫存回補速度正低於正常水準
=Dry bulk 🔥🔥🔥

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

European natural gas prices rise to the highest since the war in Iran began (on a settlement basis) 🇪🇺⚠️

LNG traffic through Hormuz is still shut, disrupting ~20% of global supply

EU gas inventories are filling at a below-normal rate ahead of winter as Asia pulls more LNG

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

阿拉伯灣至遠東 以每日 100 萬美元的費率完全敲定租約

[Ayuso @AyusoValue]

VLCC AG/Eeast
1.000.000$/d TCE fully fixed
What a time…

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

中東灣至中國（TD3C）27 萬噸級（VLCC）航線，日租金高達 603,447 美元!!

[Chris Shipping 🚢🚢 @christankerfund]

Weekly Tanker rates from Affinity.

VLCC and Suezmax spot rates are in the stratosphere ☁️🔥

$FRO $NAT $TEN $TRMD $BWET $STNG $TNK $DHT $INSW $ASC $ECO $HAFN

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

自從伊朗局勢升溫以來，整體石油與液化天然氣（Liquefied Natural Gas，簡稱 LNG）的期貨價格曲線已大幅上揚；從地緣政治的角度來看，將更多資本支出投入短週期的淺水鑽探作業，完全是符合常理的發展…… $BORR

[Joeri @joeriwestland]

👇👇👇

Q2 was the operational $BORR low imo.

Common sense suggests news flow for Jackups is going to be very bullish. With the whole oil and LNG future price curve way up since Iran, and geopolitically, way more capex to short cycle, shallow water drilling is common sense...

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

背景:中國正持續收購現代化的自升式鑽井平台

目前全球幾乎所有的自升式鑽井平台，都已由各國的國家石油公司（National Oil Companies，簡稱 NOCs）所持有

在我看來，市場上不會有太多適用於 350 至 400 呎水深的高規格平台輕易求售。

我認為，這勢必會推升二手平台的市場行情。

[Joeri @joeriwestland]

@TheDriller11 Almost all Jackups globally are already owned by National Oil Companies (NOC's). There won't be many high spec 350-400ft units easily for sale imo. This is going to drive 2nd hand values up imo.

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

巴拿馬運河管理局再次下調船舶吃水限制，要求在 8 月 26 日前降至 48 呎，並於 9 月 3 日前降至 47.5 呎；儘管每日通行航次維持不變，此舉��迫使船隻必須減輕載重。

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🌊 95% is NOAA's latest number for the odds of a very strong El Niño hitting by winter, up from 81% just last month, and the commodity fallout is already showing up in the data⚠️

Cocoa and coffee have both been rallying hard through the summer as traders price in West African and Southeast Asian crop risk.

🚢The Panama Canal Authority is cutting vessel draft limits again, down to 48 feet by August 26 and 47.5 feet by September 3, forcing ships to load lighter even though daily transit slots are holding steady.

The World Food Programme is warning a strong El Niño could push close to 49 million more people into acute hunger by year end, with Central America and Southern Africa facing the sharpest increases.

This is what a global economy running on a thin margin against nature looks like in real time.

[Peter Lindström @plmlindstroem]

Capesize average TC +1,303 to 29,981$/day

FFA has pushed up so far this week. Whole curve moving up today.

$HSHP #CMBT $DSX $GNK $SB $NMM $SHIP $DNORD $SBLK #drybulk #shipping #braemarscreen

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@contang_o Thanks for the clear breakdown, Ed! Huge fans from Taiwan following your work daily! @qiuyuwei168768

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@contang_o Given the slowdown in forward W/E fixtures, does this indirectly confirm the setup for the VLCC ‘Feeding Frenzy’? If land storage drawdown coincides with normalization, will that congestion be the last major catalyst even as the macro signal flips negative?

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@christankerfund https://t.co/LP1HwxxtnE

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@OriginalVoria Your timing is sooooooo good

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@ed_fin @Special_Blends Is this because the AI and data center boom is spiking global demand for steel and iron ore? Also, I’m really looking forward to your Substack deep dives!

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@AndersSjastad Sad

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@AndersSjastad Also, how do you handle sensitivity analysis with FFA volatility? And in markets like Taiwan (tech-heavy), shipping often gets a discount. How do you factor these market preferences into your final target price?

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@AndersSjastad Curious about your valuation approach for a mixed fleet (60% TC / 40% VC) like this. Would you use NAV plus DCF? Specifically, Ship Value + Contract (TC) vs. Ship Value + 1-year FFA (VC)?

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@christankerfund @Fitness2Finance Bio fouling

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@OriginalVoria Also, do you apply an extra NAV discount for firms that are less aggressive in operations (like https://t.co/sxwVmxaB2l, compared to $FRO)? It feels like the market punishes those who don't actively 'play' the asset cycles.

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@OriginalVoria For the 1y DCF on spot ships, do you use the FFA curve or just current rates?

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@OriginalVoria I'm looking at https://t.co/sxwVmxaB2l and wondering if Taiwan’s market efficiency is just lower than the US, or if the valuation logic is fundamentally different there.

[Young Lin @AlexanderT66763]

@OriginalVoria And once you get that total 'Charter-adjusted NAV', you then apply the discount based on their payout ratio and asset play (buying/selling ships) strategy? I'd love to know if this is how you build your base case.