The destruction of DOD’s Office Net Assessment is an enormous mistake.
This was a little-known but enormously consequential fifty year-old institution that actually thought long-term.
It helped us win the Cold War, grasped the China challenge early, and figured out revolutions in warfare.
The PRC was obsessed with it for good reason (see below).
When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did.
Ending it is another unforced error.
"We received no indication that the Russians were interested in anything short of a basic capitulation of Ukraine."
Biden did not achieve a negotiated conclusion to the war in Ukraine because Russia fundamentally did not want one, argues @Alexander_Bick
https://t.co/rr8sv69wWM
Quick thoughts from me on Syria and the lessons for how we think about strategic surprise. A warm thanks to the excellent team @EngelsbergIdeas for the opportunity.
This was a fantastic exercise to explore the complexities of a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Bravo to my students, and thanks to Mark Christopher @ACGlobalChina, Ryan Laine @PoliticsUVA, and the @UVABatten team for their invaluable assistance.
An earthquake in Taiwan becomes a political crisis verging on world war. In this simulation in @Alexander_Bick's class, students played world leaders who had to negotiate a solution—an example of Batten's course offerings prepping them for the real world. https://t.co/1vbuizd3Kz
Good discussion on the past and future of the war in Ukraine with @HalBrands and @AKendallTaylor, hosted by the ever-thoughtful @EvansRyan202: https://t.co/LKnVkx6Oys
This was an unusual if not unique case. Still, it's critical to work through what we got right and what we got wrong. A luxury in good times, in a more contested and uncertain world planning for the worst will be a competitive advantage for those who do it best.
Grateful to @HalBrands and @JHUPress for the opportunity to document and reflect on my experience leading the "Tiger Team" that planned the U.S. response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022: https://t.co/FjNRqr6ib3
In crises leaders often find themselves in react mode. The Tiger Team helped ensure senior leadership across the U.S. government was ready well before the first Russian missiles and tanks crossed the border. https://t.co/B1qHjTL3fM
@oliverwkim Fascinating. And don’t forget his 1977 book, “The Passions and the Interests,” still one of the most probing explorations of the history of economic thought. https://t.co/IInqdlOY8F
@RoperLou @deborah_hamer I’m not sure it has to be one way: some merchants, in some sectors, wanted state support to enable commercial gain; at the same time, nobles and aligned regents (at least in the WIC) wanted to harness private capital and colonial enthusiasm to undermine Spain. It was symbiotic