Alfred Duncan

Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Kent.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

@AntonMuscatelli Have a great time in Queenstown! Let me know if you make it up to Ari (Mt Alfred) at the top of the lake, near Glenorchy, where an ancestor of mine (also Alfred Duncan) lived briefly in the years leading up to the gold rush.

[National Institute of Economic and Social Research @NIESRorg]

Enjoy *free access* for a limited period to this paper by @EconUniKent's @Alfred_Duncan & @UofGAsbs's Charles Nolan 🔓

They discuss Adam Smith's vision for #banking & try to deduce how he might have approached some current issues in banking regulation🏦👇
https://t.co/UpmRhUDRKz

[National Institute of Economic and Social Research @NIESRorg]

#Weekend Reading: Enjoy open access to this paper by @EconUniKent's @Alfred_Duncan and @UofGAsbs's Charles Nolan🔓

They discuss Adam Smith's vision for #banking and try to deduce how Smith might have approached some current issues in banking regulation🏦

https://t.co/Ze2LfYRk4L

[NIER @NIESRreview]

In the seventh paper, @EconUniKent's Alfred Duncan and @UofGAsbs's Charles Nolan discuss why Adam Smith's vision for #banking went unrealised and try to deduce how Smith might have approached some of the current issues in banking regulation 🏦

9/12

https://t.co/4orMEiNUtU

[Amanda Gosling @AmandaGosling3]

Its with great sadness that we (@EconUniKent ) announce that Tony Thirlwall died yesterday after a long illness. He was a great and influential economist, a valued colleague and a kind and generous man- Rest in peace

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

@AlexisBrassey "2021 or latest year available" is not ideal. I've seen this data and some of the numbers are pre-covid, some are 2020 and some are 2021. I've found it interesting comparing with NZ, with similar income, lower spend. NHS does some things much better, and some things much worse.

[VSET Virtual Seminars in Economic Theory @VSET_contact]

Miltos will be remembered for his kindness, sense of humor, intellectual prowess, curiosity, and love for life. We miss him deeply.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

interested to see if the BoE keeps reporting measures of inflation expectations derived from the spread between linkers and unlinked gilts, now that they’re buying both.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

The ONS website is awful.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

Mervyn King in End of Alchemy ch7:
"The essential problem with [LOLR] is that ... the only way to provide sufficient liquidity in a crisis is to lend against bad collateral - at inadequate haircuts and low or zero penalty rates."

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

BoE now accepting corporate bonds >= BBB- as eligible for it's pawnbroker of last resort operations. Maybe surprisingly, haircuts same as for >= A-. 35% on 5-10 yr issues.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

Giving short talks on the LDI disruption to our @kentecon1 @KENTINVEST societies and our @EconApprentice programme this Thursday. Looking forward to it! @EconUniKent @MaghicU

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

@t0nyyates @Frances_Coppola I was also wondering about sterilisation. Thought maybe they were worried about effects of sales of <10yr on the already disrupted mortgage market. Hopefully Bailey/Pill are asked about it the next time they go in front of select committee.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

I guess this is exactly what the BoE is responding to.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

30 year gilts have fallen in price by about 24% since last Thursday. It costs roughly 30% more future tax revenue to fund a pound of spending today than it would have this time last week. No similar price movements outside of the UK.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

@AlexisBrassey No, maybe looking more like other small open economies though, where high yields on >10yr sovereign bonds can make them poor value for the taxpayer. Shortening issuance in response can make public finances more sensitive to rates.

Anything interesting happening in tier 2s?

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

30 year gilts have fallen in price by about 24% since last Thursday. It costs roughly 30% more future tax revenue to fund a pound of spending today than it would have this time last week. No similar price movements outside of the UK.

[Alfred Duncan @Alfred_Duncan]

@J_Meanwell I’m less generous if the mistake carried forward leads to an implausible answer later on, and the student doesn’t show awareness that something has gone wrong.