Lucas Almada-Sabate

Healthcare investing | current @harvardHBS, former @TAAssociates @BCG, @PennBioEng, @Wharton, @Regeneron 🇺🇸🇦🇷🇪🇸

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

I am not a doomer on job loss in consulting and finance.

I’ve spent time at @BCG and @TAAssociates, and I can say with HIGH confidence that if we had access to novel productivity tools, we would simply…

Do more work — Evaluate more investments, do deeper analysis for clients.

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

@gsabate True

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

These were always just marketing gimmicks for the labs and were never going to find PMF. There is only so much persistent demand for AI-ified photos of your friends kissing Obama on the cheek.

I dont think this necessarily signals a bubble pop

[Culture Crave 🍿 @CultureCrave]

OpenAI is shutting down its AI video platform Sora after it flopped

Disney is now exiting their $1B deal with OpenAI

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

Would love to hear the community’s thoughts on Manus as a tool for coding agents. @HarvardHBS gives us licenses, and so far had an easy time making a simple agent that pulls class materials. I like that the agents live in .py files, which makes sense to me.

#Manus #claudecode

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

@HammondEddie Cant wait

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

The issue with thinking the market is 15 turns (50%!) too low on terminal value is that if the market never ends up agreeing with you (see: moving the goalposts), the only way to make your hand is to hold the assets to… infinity, which does not jive with closed-ended funds

[The Icahnist @TheIcahnist]

BREAKING: Thoma Bravo just released their LP meeting slides.

The world's largest software PE firm thinks the market has it completely wrong on software right now.

Public markets are panic-selling software based on AI fear.

Here's what they're seeing:

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

Prediction: there will be more human software engineers in 5 years than today. I’d expect them to work in-house across the economy — as opposed to at software companies — as the cost of developing software (time and money) decreases dramatically

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

I am also long the idea of G&A savings across the economy from AI getting funneled into S&M, which $META captures

Not sure about unmonetized Reels / Threads (feels like plenty of ads shown there), but agreed on low price for this level of quality and growth

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

@rexsalisbury And as it pertains to the shape of any given curve, it’s just the normal IRR progression of a series of independent pooled investments.

Generating 50% IRR for 1 year is a lot easier than for 6 years, especially as your # of investments in a vintage / fund increases over time

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

@rexsalisbury Is this not just desribing half a period in the VC cycle?

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

There is simply no way to unseat the dollar right now. Trust in the US Treasury is absolute, meaning:

1) Govt gets to continue injecting treasuries at low rates

2) T’s are the most liquid market in the world for holding FX reserves

Flywheel is powered by this network effect!

[Tanning Salon Don @TheSalonDon]

The “Petrodollar” is a system enforced by the US military that makes oil priced in USD

That means every country needs to exchange to USD and have USD reserves to buy oil

Which allows the US to print trillions with minimal inflation

If that is challenged. Your middle class life is over

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

Is it just me or is the vibe shifting from “enterprise SaaS is dead bc vibecoding” to “we will all have agentic layers plugging into and orchestrating the legacy SaaS”

Long $CRM, $WDAY, maybe even $CSU

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

Odd take imo. Token cost will obviously decrease over time (that’s what all the capex is for, and there will be more)!

[Mark Cuban @mcuban]

This is the smartest counter I’ve seen to ai taking over jobs, in the short term.

Is the ((aggregate tokens cost to do what an employee does + plus fully encumbered developer and maintenance costs ) / (fully encumbered employee cost ) )<= productivity ?

If it takes 8 Claude agents, at $300 for tokens, per day, plus $200 per day in dev/maint , to do what an employee does per day, at a fully encumbered cost of $1200.

That’s 2600/1200. But then you need to factor in the productivity rate.

Is it more than 2.16 x productive ? Are there qualitative issues like morale, morality, whatever , that can’t be quantified, that need to go into the decision?

What is the going forward progression of burdened costs for the tokens ?

Curious what people think about this ?

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

Twitter slowly coming to the realization that if 50% of society becomes the permanent underclass, then everyone becomes permanent underclass

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

Prediction: this will get turned around and approved in 2026

[Moderna @moderna_tx]

Today we announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) has notified Moderna that it will not initiate a review of the biologics license application (BLA) for our investigational influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, and has issued a Refusal-to-File letter.

Read more: https://t.co/BYkEdHyha0

[Erik @erikinscience]

@alexalbert__ The parallel to coding's trajectory makes sense, though knowledge work has a stickier problem: most tasks require institutional context that's never written down. Will be fascinating to see how Claude navigates the unspoken rules of corporate deliverables

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

I feel bullish here. If all of the big tech CEOs are this consistently bullish on AI spend, I view it as a signal that they know something the markets don’t.

Given the massive sell-offs, tomorrow feels like a great time to go long

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

oh no

*AMAZON SEES 2026 CAPEX ABOUT $200B, EST. $146.11B

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

Nvm software is still very much alive!

[Tim Facer @TTFacer]

Hg raises almost $30bn in triple fundraising blitz

via ⁦@SebMcCarthy⁩ @WSJ #PrivateEquity https://t.co/xdE5UJLKmM

[Lucas Almada-Sabate @AlmadaSabate]

If you measure it in $ABVX stock instead of dollars it looks even worse

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

If you measure it in gold instead of in dollars, the US stock market has basically collapsed. 📉

[Nikhil Krishnan @nikillinit]

someone at this JPM panel said the future of healthcare interoperability is going to end up being teleoperated humanoid bots sending faxes to each other to get information