Sonith has split from @OriginsInc and is launching a show with exactly the same concept lmao.
Tldr we got into an equity dispute (he got greedy and tried to undermine me).
Origins will continue with a new cohost and better episodes every week.
Investment Thesis: ASP Isotopes
Remember the Rare Earths Materials trend?
That was a dud.
Lithium, it turns out, is widely abundant.
What’s truly rare and in high demand?
Isotopes.
1. Silicon-28 : semiconductors
2. Carbon-14 : radiocarbon dating
3. Enriched Uranium : nuclear energy
4. Molybdenum-99 : nuclear medicine
5. Yterrbium-90 : radiotherapy
How do I know they are rare?
Physics!
They decay.
Some decay quite fast - like Yterrbium-90.
That element is used as a ‘tracer’ in cancer diagnosis.
Half of Yterrbium disappears in 3 days.
That means you need a reliable enrichment technology to produce these at scale.
And the cost per gram of these isotopes implies an ~80% margin.
Is there a moat?
Yes.
You need government licenses and permits to handle. ship, purchase, sell, enrich or package radioactive material.
Potential Customers / TAM?
1. SMR developers (eg, Rolls Royce, @sama’s Oklo, NuScame, TerraPower)
2. Foundries and chip makers: $GFS $TSMC $INTC $ASML $LRCX $AMAT
3. Hospitals
4. Governments (that need to dispose ‘tails’ — spent uranium shells)
What themes does this link to?
- Aging demographics (medicine)
- Nuclear Renaissance
- Semiconductors
What are the Comps?
Centrus Energy ($LEU): $680 MM market cap. Unprofitable.
Silex Systems ($SILXF): $842 MM market cap. Unprofitable.
Nasdaq listed $ASPI is sub-$200 MM market cap.
Management expects free cash flow positive within 6 months.
ASPI is like a venture capital bet - except it is traded in the public markets.