Nick

Sharing tools, research, and ideas to find signal in a world of noise.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@CDInewsletter He also wrote this in 1979.

“Our book value at the end of 1964 would have bought about one-half ounce of gold. Fifteen years later, after we have plowed back all earnings along with your capital, the book value produced will still buy about one-half ounce of gold.”

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@onechancefreedm We’re living through a Truman Show market.

Liquidity cycles are papering over the cracks where business cycle signals used to be.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@great_martis Still useful as a mean-reversion signal, but without accounting for central bank balance sheet expansion, it can overstate overvaluation in a debasing system.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@MariaShen ETH may be valuable as a network, but it makes no sense as a treasury asset.

How do you “treasure” something governed by people, not protocol and secured simply by proof of ownership, not real energy?

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

In 1946, the U.S. inflated its debt away, but only after shifting to 90% domestic ownership.

Today’s playbook rhymes:

Step 1: Get China, Russia, Saudis to dump.
Step 2: Shift Treasuries to U.S. banks, pensions, MMFs.
Step 3: Cap yields and let inflation do the work.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@MisterMSTY Peter Thiel talked about the ‘obvious trade’ and how people miss out by trying to be too clever instead of just going in on the obvious trade.

He mentioned that was Mag 7 for the past 10 years and Bitcoin looks like the best candidate for the next 10.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@realroseceline @JohnHuber72 Another angle is money supply nearly doubled over that time. So assets with perceived durability and pricing power didn’t just rerate on story, they absorbed the monetary inflation.

M2 as reference:
• 2015 ≈ $12T
• 2025 ≈ $21–22T

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

The fear is always that it's just a retail pump. But what if it’s not?

What if it’s the quiet, structural rollout of a new monetary layer - one that sidesteps both fiscal gridlock and generational inequality?

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

If printing is the only solution left, but you can’t print oil, houses, or food...and you can’t hand out UBI without wrecking the bond market - then Bitcoin becomes the politically acceptable release valve.

A way to recapitalize a generation left out in the cold.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

The smartest Bitcoin investors don’t think Bitcoin > everything.

But it’s an asymmetric bet that:
• Bitcoin > $65T in bonds, backed by a printer
• Bitcoin > equities trading at 50x sales

You don’t need to be a maxi, you just need to be math aware.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@JimChuong Equities are great, but currently stretched.

There’s a $65T global sovereign bond market “backed” by indebted governments printing money to cover interest. In that context, Bitcoin doesn’t seem so crazy.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

Ethereum promised decentralized Layer 2s, but most use cases are fringe. Bitcoin’s Layer 2 is institutional: $MSTR building capital markets, $BLK onboarding pensions.

The real layer 2 is recapitalizing global capital on top of $BTC.

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

The next 10 years won’t look like the last.

SaaS margins may compress under AI. The Mag 7 could stall as U.S. dominance fades and capital pulls back.

Hard money and real assets don’t change. AI and nations still run on energy, and capital is shifting to neutral value: $BTC $GLD

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

Bitcoin = a bet on global M2 expansion, with beta. Historically been a good bet.

$BTC | chart credit @RaoulGMI

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Stock markets can go a long, long time with no returns.

Decades, even.

via @UBS

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

The last 20 years dematerialized information: books, photos, video, news.

$AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META rode that wave to trillions.

The next 10 will dematerialize money, bonds, real estate, labor and human intelligence itself.

Software is coming for everything.

$BTC

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@SpeakOnFS1 @michaelirvin88

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@Asitopro @chrissssjohnson @figma

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@chrissssjohnson bitcoin turns things upside down

[Nick @AlpineSignal]

@chrissssjohnson thicker variant