Elections and Politics

Owner of youtube channel Election and Politics. Conservative on Twitter and makes unbiased election predictions. Click the link to subscribe! @alt_eap is alt.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

Two back to back polls have shown Michigan Senate as trending Republican and today, our polling aggregate flipped for the first time as it indicated Republicans were ahead by a margin of 0.2.

Our forecast shows Democrats barely winning this race but we will be watching closely.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Mitchell Research Poll: Michigan Senate is TIED (our aggregate has Democrats ahead by 1.3).

Democrats shouldn't sound the alarm bell yet, but they must be careful.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Fox News Poll: Republicans ahead by only 1 point in the Texas governor's race and Democrats lead the Senate race by 3 points.

This is a concerning sign for Texas Republicans if other polls confirm this trend.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New CNN Poll: Democrats ahead by 8 on the generic ballot (our aggregate has them at +5.1).

This is promising news for Democrats after a week of lackluster poll results.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New YouGov Poll: Democrats ahead by 4 on the generic ballot (our aggregate has them at +4.8).

This is the third poll in a row to put the Democrat lead under +5.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Ipsos Poll: Democrats ahead by 2 on the generic ballot (our aggregate has them at +5).

This is concerning for Democrats if it continues after a week of good poll numbers.

[Elections and Politics @AlternateAnd]

@pr0jectiondesk My hot take is that it's the Maine Senate race. Troy Jackson wins barely due to the environment but empirics show Susan Collins is not to be underestimated.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

What do you think the closest Senate race is (by margin) in the 2026 midterms?

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@thehill The Projection Desk forecast has them gaining in the Senate but falling short by 2 seats (51R-49D).

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Fox News Poll: Democrats ahead by 7 on the generic ballot.

This is a major shift from the previous trend that indicated that the Democratic lead may be faltering and is thus, great news for the Democrats!

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 The biggest surprise from the Arizona primaries? There wasn't one.

The Projection Desk accurately anticipated the outcomes of today's Arizona primaries, so our race ratings remain unchanged.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 The biggest winner of Arizona Primary Night: Katie Hobbs.

With Andy Biggs now officially the GOP nominee, Hobbs leads in every poll against her opponent. The polling average puts her up 6 points, and The Projection Desk gives her a 55% chance of reelection.

[Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot]

New election forecast on the block! This one comes from high school student Atharv Gabada. Always great to see young people trying their hand at this stuff!

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: U-NH conducted Maine Senate poll shows Troy Jackson (D) ahead of Susan Collins (R).

This is the first poll since Platner dropped out and confirms our forecast that this Senate Race is currently lean D.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: Morning Consult poll finds that Democrats are ahead by only 3 points in the generic ballot.

This is fourth poll in a row to have Democrats at or below D+3, a concerning sign for Democrats. Our new aggregate of all polls indicates that the generic ballot is now at D+4.

[Elections and Politics @AlternateAnd]

@JoeTrump7999 @pr0jectiondesk I just sent you a friend request on discord!

[Elections and Politics @AlternateAnd]

Make sure to check out the newest political forecasting source and poll aggregator at
https://t.co/1Kerh92YDc and/or follow them @pr0jectiondesk

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: Georgia Senate moves to a 60% chance of a Democratic victory.

This change was made to reflect recent fundraising numbers and campaign momentum. This is a bad trend for Georgia Republicans and Mike Collins.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: University of North Florida finds (R) Byron Donalds leads (D) David Jolly in the Florida Governor Race by 5 points.

This has flipped our polling aggregate from showing Jolly ahead to showing Donalds ahead by 0.4%, a major victory for Florida Republicans.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: University of North Florida finds Ashley Moody leads Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate Race by 10 points. This is the first poll to show such a large margin in favor of Republicans and is a very concerning sign for Vindman if it becomes a trend.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: Rasmussen Reports finds Trump approval is at 44%.

Interestingly, his disapproval rate stayed the same in this poll while his approval rating went up. We'll be watching to see if this becomes a trend where more Trump voters are coming around and starting to approve.