The Projection Desk

Where the data speaks first.

Independent election projections, polling, and political analysis.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@PollTracker2024 This is currently our exact forecast!

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

Two back to back polls have shown Michigan Senate as trending Republican and today, our polling aggregate flipped for the first time as it indicated Republicans were ahead by a margin of 0.2.

Our forecast shows Democrats barely winning this race but we will be watching closely.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@PollTracker2024 This is the second major poll in a row to show Talarico ahead of Paxton.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Mitchell Research Poll: Michigan Senate is TIED (our aggregate has Democrats ahead by 1.3).

Democrats shouldn't sound the alarm bell yet, but they must be careful.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@NBCNews His moderation is why he is able to win and is expected to win again (the Projection Desk forecast marks his race as safe red) in such a blue state.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Fox News Poll: Republicans ahead by only 1 point in the Texas governor's race and Democrats lead the Senate race by 3 points.

This is a concerning sign for Texas Republicans if other polls confirm this trend.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New CNN Poll: Democrats ahead by 8 on the generic ballot (our aggregate has them at +5.1).

This is promising news for Democrats after a week of lackluster poll results.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New YouGov Poll: Democrats ahead by 4 on the generic ballot (our aggregate has them at +4.8).

This is the third poll in a row to put the Democrat lead under +5.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@BlueSpud208 Great question! Our forecasts are revised daily and updated whenever there is a meaningful change in the race.

For example, today we updated our governor forecast following Larry Rhoden’s nomination.

Our poll aggregates, however, are updated daily.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@USA_Polling This is quite out of the norm. Our aggregate has the average poll at D+12, warranting suspicion of this poll unless nonpartisan ones confirm a movement as well.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Ipsos Poll: Democrats ahead by 2 on the generic ballot (our aggregate has them at +5).

This is concerning for Democrats if it continues after a week of good poll numbers.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@RealAlbanianPat Our forecast currently shows the following
Maine: ✅
Ohio: ❌
Alaska: ❌
Iowa: ❌
Texas: ❌
Nebraska: ❌

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

What do you think the closest Senate race is (by margin) in the 2026 midterms?

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@thehill The Projection Desk forecast has them gaining in the Senate but falling short by 2 seats (51R-49D).

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 New Fox News Poll: Democrats ahead by 7 on the generic ballot.

This is a major shift from the previous trend that indicated that the Democratic lead may be faltering and is thus, great news for the Democrats!

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

@phillylefty @baseballot It was! Thanks for pointing this out, it's fixed now.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 The biggest winner of Arizona Primary Night: Katie Hobbs.

With Andy Biggs now officially the GOP nominee, Hobbs leads in every poll against her opponent. The polling average puts her up 6 points, and The Projection Desk gives her a 55% chance of reelection.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 The biggest surprise from the Arizona primaries? There wasn't one.

The Projection Desk accurately anticipated the outcomes of today's Arizona primaries, so our race ratings remain unchanged.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: U-NH conducted Maine Senate poll shows Troy Jackson (D) ahead of Susan Collins (R).

This is the first poll since Platner dropped out and confirms our forecast that this Senate Race is currently lean D.

[The Projection Desk @pr0jectiondesk]

🚨 NEW: Morning Consult poll finds that Democrats are ahead by only 3 points in the generic ballot.

This is fourth poll in a row to have Democrats at or below D+3, a concerning sign for Democrats. Our new aggregate of all polls indicates that the generic ballot is now at D+4.