AlwaysReliable

Have a discussion, not an argument — Talking all things Finance/Global Business/Economics & Trading - Memes #ITG

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

Cant spell Legend without Degen #16 --

AMD 155 C from .80 to 18.75

#TradersHelpingTraders #OPM #AMD #ATH

@VeteranWallSt @IndieTraders

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

"With the 16th Pick in the 2024 Market Draft, the ITG Degens select....AMD, Calls, at the 155 Strike"

@VeteranWallSt @IndieTraders

#TradersHelpingTraders #ITG #AMD #Options #OPM #Edge

[Independent Traders Guild @IndieTraders]

Alpha is live this week!! Right now, access is exclusive to ITG members.

👉 https://t.co/kM0Az5k58X

ITG members get FULL Spotwise access included. No separate subscription.

Want in? Subscribe to ITG for just $99 and get a first look at the platform.

https://t.co/cP8DFRNGV2

RT if you know a trader who's going to need this after June 4th.

#Options #PDTrule #AItrading #ITG #SpotWise

[Independent Traders Guild @IndieTraders]

The PDT rule changes June 4th!!

A lot of traders are about to enter options for the first time, and most platforms are going to leave them completely on their own.

We didn't.

🧵 Introducing Spotwise, the AI-native options platform built by a former hedge fund manager 👇

#options #optionstrading #PDTrule #trading #SpotWise

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@tradingview Any updates on the random wicks on the ES chart the last few days? Just had another one that went 600 points 😂

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

Clockwork

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

Axios reports US Iran deal imminent tweet loading up.

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

Someone needs to get to making the new leveraged BBBB ETF -- "Beef, Beans, Boeing, and Blackwell" 😆

@FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@ufc Still have the chance to do it for the 250th

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

The "100 people Vs 1 Gorilla" fight will be live on PPV for July 4th - calling it now

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

Last year you were flagging upside vol as significantly underpriced heading into summer, and we saw SPX grind to ATH through the fall (great call). This year we had a sharp drawdown but a much faster snapback than most expected.

Were there similar upside vol dynamics at play during/after the March selloff? And if upside vol has already been bid up given how fast we snapped back, does that tell you something meaningful about institutional conviction in further upside? Or does it actually make you more cautious that the easy move has been priced?

Appreciate your insight as always!!

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

When you’ve watched enough of the videos that @VolSignals has put out the last few months and immediately see the setup:

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

This week's behavior should not surprise you-

every morning in VS Pro we've hammered home key points about FOMC trading ~

expect tight range Monday and Tuesday
participants have no incentive to trade ahead of important events like this + earnings

Fed variance tends to hit Thursday, NOT Fednesday
between the historical tendency for Fed volatility to hit in the Thursday session (Weds close through Thurs close, including overnight) AND the earnings we have on deck AFTER CLOSE- today's straddle should NOT surprise you.

and it may perform

today's Market Maker 0DTE position,
courtesy of VS3D >>

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@JC_ParetsX It’s because everyone is ordering Amazon packages via Avis rental cars driven through the Strait of Hormuz

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

When you shorted the breakout thinking it was a fakeout but the fakeout was also a fakeout

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

SPX now within 10 points of going positive on the year.

Wild moves, where once again there is no better driver of sentiment than price.

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@Ksidiii Wearing this to the Masters would be 👌

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

"Bessent isn't using government resources to suppress the energy markets. Don't be ridiculous!"

Bessent when CL goes above $100:

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@DoubleWideCap You'll love this one too...

AVWAP from the 2025 low 🦺

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

ICE being deployed to SJU is irony at its best

[Kyle Potter @kpottermn]

NEW: @CNN has published a list of the 13 U.S. airports where ICE has been deployed this morning:

Atlanta (ATL)
Chicago (ORD)
Cleveland (CLE)
Houston (HOU)
Ft. Myers (RSW)
New Orleans (MSY)
New York (JFK)
New York-LaGuardia (LGA)
Newark (EWR)
Philadelphia (PHL)
Phoenix (PHX)
Pittsburgh (PIT)
San Juan, PR (SJU)

https://t.co/5Nm5dEAiNQ

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@FDSportsbook AMC about to turn this thing into a popcorn bucket for the Weekend Warriors movie

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

Almost as if there was a massive quarterly position on SPX that tends to be a gravity point going into expiration next Friday....

oh wait....

#JPMCOLLAR #TradersHelpingTraders

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

A useful framework in hindsight.

Since this was posted on March 5th, breadth has continued to deteriorate, with the percentage of S&P 500 constituents holding above their short-term moving averages falling further.

At the same time, volatility has expanded amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continued geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.

To this point, market behavior has aligned more closely with the accelerating washout scenario rather than a short-term breadth reset.

#SPX #TradersHelpingTraders #VIX

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

SP500 Breadth just hit its lowest reading since the November bottom.

41% of S&P 500 names closed above their 20-day SMA today. That's the weakest reading since the November bottom and just undercut the Dec 31st level.

The nuance here is volatility.

December's breadth dip occurred with volatility near 15 with a relatively complacent tape.

Today's reading is coming in alongside VIX levels that mirror the November selloff, with a meaningfully different backdrop.

Elevated volatility combined with broad 20-day SMA deterioration can signal more than a routine rotation as it can indicate institutional cash-raising at a portfolio level.

Two scenarios from here:
1) an accelerating washout
2) a short-term breadth reset that builds the foundation for a move higher off the low end of the 3-month range.

The VIX divergence between these prior dips is the variable that likely determines which path follows.

Are you fading the range??

@IndieTraders @VeteranWallSt #ITG #SPX #VIX #Selloff #TradersHelpingTraders

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@DoubleWideCap “So you’re telling me you’ve never heard of our lord and savior AVWAP?”

[AlwaysReliable @AlwaysReliable_]

@RampCapitalLLC Haters will say it's fake