Behind the Buy

📈 Long-term investor | ✍️ Behind the Buy is my monthly deep dive on a new stock I’m adding | 💬 Always open to discussing ideas & defending my thesis 🛡️

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@DrewCohenMoney Have you looked into Fairfax? $FFH.TO

Canada’s mini Berkshire. Would love a Drew deep dive on them.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@bigpoppastonk Welcome back!

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@beaverlakecap The $400k independent board member open market purchase on a micro cap is not significant?

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

There has been some significant insider buying at $CMG.TO lately. CEO just bought $16k on June 18 and an independent board member bought ~$400k between June 11-15.

Is it because the stock is trading for 7.9x EV/EBITDA and expected to grow revenues and FCF this year?

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@SebKrog $CMG.to check my last few posts on thesis

[Grace Cathedral Park @gracecthdralprk]

I didn’t used to think advertising worked on me, but the World Cup has made me want to buy some crude oil from Saudi Aramco

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@NicoperJES @TSOH_Investing I would!

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@realroseceline $CSU.TO or $TOI.V

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@istyping___ @JimChuong You can contribute when you’re 18, but carry forward the deduction to higher income years

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@Bonhoeffer_KDS @CentaurixCap @CJ0pp3l My understanding is they own the market, the market doesn’t grow, and only avenue for growth comes down to price increases.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

For some of the more commoditized upstream software solutions, I think you are largely right. With that said, $CMG.TO is widely regarded as the gold standard for advanced physics in a number of categories. In CCS and thermal modeling in the oil sands (STARS), competitive solutions don’t provide the same value as CMG. Same can be said about their competitors in other sub niches. The little differences in efficacy of these software solutions can be the difference in saving millions of $$, and when your solution is the gold standard, I think there is actually a lot more pricing power than you’re giving them.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

So to summarize, SLB is seeing the growth and capturing more value because of cross-sell into their non-software business. It’s a fair point, but they’ve always been cross-selling, so that would only be valid if you think they have been cross-selling at an accelerating over the last year. Haven’t done enough work to know candidly.

Worth noting that SLB’s upstream sw business is 10x the size of $CMG.TO

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@Bonhoeffer_KDS @CentaurixCap @CJ0pp3l Not sure if I’m following. SLB is almost exclusively upstream.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@Bonhoeffer_KDS @CentaurixCap @CJ0pp3l Interesting point. If you look at SLB’s digital segment, I would argue it says otherwise.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

You’re right on the importance of PS, but with that said, no good sw operator provides PS at a loss. Seeing them reduce that should be viewed as a positive, as PS is lower margin, but should not be viewed as a loss leader.

The “cracks in their armor” are not new. The stock is down 70% from highs for a reason. I think their Q4 results indicate that the turnaround is indeed heading in the right direction. How cheap is really a function of how high of a hurdle you have.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@CentaurixCap @CJ0pp3l They likely could, but they are reducing the unprofitable professional services revenue. This is why despite total organic declining 5% last Q, you saw a big increase in FCF in the quarter.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@CJ0pp3l Q4 had +5% organic recurring revenue growth and guided for FY27 to have positive recurring organic growth. Check out my last 2 posts where I go more in depth.

[Behind the Buy @AndrewDoPaco1]

@CJ0pp3l That’s why I like it😁 cheap and returning to organic growth after a rough last 4 quarters

[Raj.brk @rja907]

My notes from the $CSU.TO $TOI.V $LMN.V 2026 AGM! It should serve as some good long-weekend reading!

Includes stuff that neither the financials nor the meeting recording will tell you!

I got a chance to speak with Mr. Jeff Bender, Mr. Bernie Anzarouth, Mr. Jamal Baksh, Mr. Daan Dijkhuizen, Mr. Robin van Poelje and shared what I remember!

I think the 4+ hour AGM is well worth your time but the 3-4 minutes of direct quotes get you 90% there!

YouTube link (with timestamps): https://t.co/X6BGy7scdW

Official link: https://t.co/UFzMxDqAvO