$PLTR
Palantir just put up one of the strongest earnings we have seen throughout the entire stock market. The level of growth across core metrics that the street did not expect to grow and the ability to do it in the face of the narrative that software companies have no terminal value is what makes this quarter so incredible.
Revenue accelerated 85% YoY against expectations of 74%. They raised the FY guide from 61% to 71%. They did more FCF this quarter than they did in revenue in Q1 last year.
They did this with a salesforce of around 70 people...most software companies at their scale have 100x that amount of dedicated staff working on sales, so how are they able to grow this fast? How is Alex Karp so easily able to guide that they will accelerate to 100% growth in 2027?
Palantir is actually doing what software companies have promised to do, but as of recent have failed to materialize: providing value that transforms an enterprise.
A quote from Shyam, CTO, last night:
"More tokens means more slop. And the more commodity cognition you consume, the more you need a system that can prevent the economic harm so you can harness the economic value. That system is AIP. That intermediary representation is the ontology. This is also why we are seeing the death of legacy software. AIP replaces static workflows not by replicating the playbook but by eliminating the need for one."
Palantir is acknowledging that traditional legacy software is dead in the age of AI, but the orchestration of providing business value to ground the truth of the organization within the representation of how that value is constructed (the ontology, what they spent 20 years building) is the defining factor to make AI meaningful.
The results prove this. How is a company doing almost 2B in revenue with just 1000 customers? Their net dollar retention has now passed 150%, which means their customers are choosing to spend more with them because they are getting more value. Imagine what happens when Palantir is at 10,000 and 100,000 customers. This can be one of the biggest companies on Planet Earth as everytime they get a customer, they provide so much value, that the customers locks in and stays with them and pays them more and Palantir is able to create an incredible margin (53% net income) on every dollar the generate because they don't need to pay all the people in the middle, like a salesforce, to generate that revenue.
The company increased their FY guide to 7.6B. Alex Karp said he wants to grow that 100% in 2027. That would put the company at around 15B. If they beat that estimate, we could be even higher. The debate right now is purely around one thing: the sustainability of this type of growth. If you think it is sustainable, you are bullish. If not, you are bearish.
Palantir can't control everything that happens in the macro or the market but they can control how fast they can grow. These earnings make it very, very obvious to me that they will not only sustainably grow, but they will continue to accelerate that growth because their customers are continuing to ask for more from them and as they continue to deliver, they continue to see the benefits of bringing value to enterprises and governments across the world.
Incredibly proud to be on the journey of covering them and I know how special this quarter must have been for those of us who saw the company grow up in front of our eyes over the past few years.
LFG.
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@chickengenius Calm. Seen this cycle more times than I've counted since Trump administration.
But can't deny this cycle is more pain than the previous given that crypto and previous metals got tanked too.
Top 11 Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade
1. $GRAB - Grab Holdings Limited
Grab is a leading super-app in Southeast Asia, combining ride-hailing, food delivery, payments, and financial services in emerging markets with a rapidly expanding middle class.
Its ecosystem strategy (mobility + delivery + fintech) mirrors successful models seen in China, but in a region with massive population growth and rapidly increasing internet and smartphone penetration.
Indonesia is Grab’s fastest-growing and most profitable market, supported by strong execution across both budget and premium tiers: GrabBike Saver for price-sensitive users and GrabExecutive for corporate and high-income riders.
Grab is also evolving into a hybrid food, grocery, and convenience platform (similar to a Southeast Asian DoorDash–Instacart model) with significant long-term monetization potential.
In 2025, Grab became profitable for the first time, improving from -$105M in net income in 2024 to $122M in 2025, and earnings are projected to grow more than 9x by 2029.
This poem by Charles Bukowski changed my life 7 years ago.
I revisit the poem every new year as I am reminded I once again have a new chance to chase the only thing worth chasing…a dream.
Excited to continue analyzing the greatest show on earth, Wall Street, with everyone in 2026. Deeply appreciate everyone who follows and finds any value in the content as I find immense purpose in creating it.
GO ALL THE WAY & HAPPY NEW YEAR.
woah
first thing Jensen says on the call:
“There’s been a lot of talk about the AI bubble, here’s what we are seeing at Nvidia.”
completely addresses the bubble concerns head first and then proceeds to challenge the narrative by explaining Nvidia’s growth
if this is you. I hope this message finds you well.
If you are planning to SELL seeing all this red. DON'T. Never ever fking panic sell.
Wait for a bounce, and sell. Move on. Don't look back for your own mental health.
Every week/month, there are always new opportunities. Live to fight another day. Come back stronger.
$PLTR
PALANTIR Q3 2025 EARNINGS:
- $1.18B revenue, +63% YoY
- $883M U.S. revenue, +77% YoY
- $397M U.S. commercial revenue, +121% YoY
- $486M U.S. government revenue, +52% YoY
- GAAP net income $476M, 40% margin
- Rule of 40 at 114%
- $6.4B in cash
CEO Alex Karp:
"Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement. This remains the beginning, the first moment of a first chapter."
Speechless.
The next two deepdives are out!
These are on $GRAB and $NBIS.
The $GRAB deepdive is a refined version of a thesis I wrote up a few months ago that many people may have already read.
Nebius $NBIS is a name that has done exceptionally well for retail investors and is up 3x YTD.
Given the AI revolution, the datacenter space has become integral and it seems like Nebius will play a very important role in this sector. After doing the deepdive, I do believe the company has a moat due to it's full stack, vertically integrated advantage and it is becoming very clear why people are choosing this name as their core datacenter exposure over the many other plays that are out there.
While the stock has already performed and it is understandable if investors feel they missed it (like myself), I tried to see the broader tailwinds for the business and if the $30B company could one day become a $100B company.
Will be working on the next 2 deepdives for November (please leave any comments for tickers you'd like to see) along with some more deepdives into big tech earnings, the state of the bifurcated economy, where we are in the macro, and more!
The substack is free (always will be) and has no paywall -- all the previous deepdives on $BMNR and $DUOL are available to see and more content will be posted throughout the week recapping the big tech earnings.
Deepdives below:
$Grab at $10 or $40B MC is still relatively cheap comparing to most US companies right now.
When considering 2026 is expect to be $5.3-$6B revenue.
And we are up 10% after Short sellers made the largest cover since Sept 2024.
Most people dont know that, they have to pay margin interest when shorting. So there is a cost while unrealized losses piling up.
BREAKING: Beyond Meat stock, $BYND, erases +160% daily gain and turns negative on the day, now down -10%.
The memestock’s rally appears to have come to a tragic end.
$GRAB
Grab price action is a classic example of manipulation/shorts being in control.
The stock was $6+ for a month, had the highest volume ever in September (1B), and now gets stuck in the $5.50s. This is likely due to the short float now going up above 8% and being stuck to the whim of these algos.
The only way to break though...strong earnings. I expect Q3 to be very strong, along with Maybank that has 3-5% higher targets across the board on Grab, but nonetheless price action is of course frustating.
Important to remember the facts during these situations:
- stock is up 20% YTD, beating the S&P
- smart money is loading the boat, 84% of the float is institutional and only increase
- if you are in this long, these are moment to further add vs get scared because some random hype name is going up (as we can see lately, those names are violently losing 20% in a week)
- mgmt has done 7-8 NEW interviews in the last month, first time in over 3 years they are engaging with the media, that is not bearish
- this company, unlike many of the names up 5-8x YTD that are now seeing weakness, has 7B in cash. i will take poor performance being able to sleep at night knowing my company has a massive balance sheet over getting into speculation that has narrative powering it, not a balance sheet
- rates coming down will give a premium to companies that can actually grow
- product innovation is high, multiple new partnerships every month, broadening of their scale across financial services (will do 1B in loans by end of year) and GAAP profitable
Not something to be scared about but rather understand the manipulation is inevitable until a re-rating and if the tutes continue to buy, they also are expecting a change in growth expectations as well.