Of course that’s your contention. You’re a first-year analytics intern. You just got finished reading some Sabermetric historian—Bill James, probably. You’re gonna be convinced of that ’til next month when you get to the latest Pitching+ update, and then you’re gonna be talkin’ about how SIERA is the only "true" measure of skill because it accounts for the complexity of the batted ball profile to CSW rates.
You have no thoughts of your own. You’re just looking at a movement plot and trying to sound smart. You’re gonna realize in a couple of years that you spent all that time calculating "Expected FIP" based on a "Skill-Interactive" ghost, when you could’ve just looked at the K/BB ratio and seen the whole picture.
The sad thing is, in about five years, you’re gonna realize you’re not that bright. You’re gonna be talkin’ about Skenes’ "Expected ERA" while the real experts are just looking at a box score and realizing that if a guy doesn't walk people and he misses bats, he's gonna be fine.
You dropped $100,000 on a Data Science degree to learn how to run a regression on a pitcher's "luck," when you could’ve gotten the same predictive value for five cents in late charges by looking at a K/BB leader board at the public library.
As is often the case, Hannah nails it.
This is the thing that makes me CRAZY about these situations.
It's like the husband that comes home from work, sees some chore isn't done, beats his wife and children, and then says, "Look what you made me do!"
The fact is that being in authority requires stewarding that authority wisely, restraining power and emotion in conflict.
Same goes for ICE.
"Oh but she might have gotten away in her car."
Okay... they've got her face on cam and her license plate. They can press charges and do all that Magna Carta era stuff to hold her accountable — Press charges, arrest appropriately, show the evidence against her, etc., etc..
With the more recent one, I literally am yet to hear a single justification for this shooting that is even the tiniest bit credible. You disarmed a guy who wasn't brandishing his weapon, and we still have a second amendment. Then you shot him in the back ten times.
I've heard some reporting that his weapon actually misfired as an agent was walking away and it spooked the ICE officers and they unloaded.
Okay... even so, hey boys, maybe a little less Zyn and Red Bull when taking it to the streets, because you have to be the adults in the room... not meathead goons with guns that get to just kill people.
No one forced anyone to pull a trigger. Period. And if we lose sight of that, we are in a dark place indeed.
@jaredcwilson My wife who has half paid attention as I’ve watched the series remarked “that’s powerful”. The whole series is a great picture of all the things you described, must watch.
Okay so that Miles Davis quote "if you hit a wrong note, it's the next note you play that determines if it's good or bad" applies to basically everything