Andrew Lautz

Federal tax policy @TaxFoundation. Former: @BPC_Bipartisan @NTU @NTUF. @BrittanyEHarvey's husband. Enjoyer of charts. Views/opinions my own.

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

Taking a break from work and Twitter for a bit for more important things, like teaching my brand new daughter the ins and outs of the tax code.

I'll post occasionally since I have some pre-leave @TaxFoundation pubs coming out, but otherwise will be back at it in mid-Oct!

[Will McBride @EconoWill]

New piece on the potential for a federal debt crisis and the need for a fiscal commission to avoid that and put the debt on a sustainable course:

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

@alumni_cesar Nice! Thanks for playing!

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

For a fun weekend project, I built an election-themed game inspired by the "82-0" NBA game.

Build your POTUS candidate with 10 spins of the wheel, drawing traits from real candidates. Then run a primary, general, and—just maybe—a re-elect.

Avail here: https://t.co/icyEpjPzt3

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

Would appreciate if folks checked it out and, if you like it, share it with friends.

If you see bugs or add'l features you'd like added, drop me a line!

https://t.co/icyEpjQ7iB

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

There are three other modes:

Realistic 2028, where you can play with possible 2028 POTUS candidates.

What-If, where you can replay any cycle 1980-2024 with a custom built candidate.

Scenario, where you rewrite history from a given cycle (win w/Kennedy in 1980, Rubio in 2016).

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

The federal budget’s top 5 line items: 1940-2025

[Richard Rubin @RichardRubinDC]

Roughly $1 in every $5 of revenue went to pay interest on the accumulated debt. And that's not fully reflecting the recent run-up in Treasury yields, because those take time to filter into federal borrowing.

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

On a nominal dollar basis, this is only the third time in history the deficit has hit $2 trillion in one year.

The other two times: 2020 and 2021, when emergency spending surged and tax revenues plunged during the COVID pandemic.

[U.S. CBO @USCBO]

The federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion in fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $218 billion more than the deficit recorded in fiscal year 2025. https://t.co/qEb1buILiR

[U.S. CBO @USCBO]

The federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion in fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $218 billion more than the deficit recorded in fiscal year 2025. https://t.co/qEb1buILiR

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

Tax folks should watch this case. If SCOTUS rules that states can regulate prediction markets like gambling, it follows that states can (and will!) tax prediction markets like gambling.

[CNBC @CNBC]

NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states https://t.co/Adi1KuncTM

[Adam Michel @adamnmichel]

A new proposal for a federal film tax credit would be costly and ineffective.

I review the evidence on state and international film incentives.

The Trump-backed federal tax credit could end up costing more than $100,000 per job created.

https://t.co/UCfU7FJgPM

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

Me every time bill text and a section-by-section for major legislation drops:

[Elizabeth Holmes @ElizabethHolmes]

I really don't think you are ready for this doc

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

I didn’t know what kind of music I wanted to listen to for the rest of my life until I listened to Born to Run front to back when I was 13.

Everything else on this list stems from that (yes, Taylor Swift too)!

[Daniel Bunn @danieldbunn]

Compilations are allowed so long as they were the discs you had in the CD wallet in your car, right?

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

@AshleySchapitl I ordered Annie Jacobsen’s “Biological War: A Scenario.” Not sure if it’s more or less cheery than “Nuclear War: A Scenario” will report back.

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

@mattyglesias Depends on how big a fan they are. Springsteen did Clampdown a bunch when Morello joined him on tour both in 2014 and earlier this year. So the diehards should know it!

[Andrew Lautz @andrew_lautz]

@danieldbunn

[Daniel Bunn @danieldbunn]

Andrew wasn't positively recommending this, Sen. Kelly! https://t.co/9Ua2HGQnkG

[Daniel Bunn @danieldbunn]

The bit tax returns.