#Bitcoin Balanced Price 🟠
Another useful metric to keep on your radar when looking for potential cycle bottoms.
Historically, major #BTC bottoms have formed when price touched or closely approached the Balanced Price.
The Balanced Price is currently sitting at $39,149 and trending lower.
Top tier comedy would be $MSTR selling 46,000 $BTC at a VWAP of $66,000, extending the $STRC runway to two years and realizing a massive tax loss, while simultaneously selling $2.5B of common stock and purchasing 50,000 $BTC at a VWAP of $60,000.
I posted this chart in 08/2022. And it predicted the course of the transition from bear to bull.
Bitcoin dumped from 30k to 17k in june 2022. then was slowly creeping up to 25k. Then elevator down to 19k. then ftx. then bull.
Sound familiar?
Don't listen to people trying to convince you stuff is different, something is broken, or this and that happens because of some model.
Maybe it's boring because it's too simple.
No closes yet, but it seems very likely that Bitcoin locks in a break below the First Low Bear Band, triggering a move to the Second Low Band at 44.5k.
The cycle bottom target here is on the lower end of my projections at 28.5k.
I am being very patient for the right cycle low conditions, I am not afraid of "missing out".
Especially as returns diminish and the possibility of a lackluster cycle (which most people find impossible) looms, it is more important than ever to wait for the best time to invest.
I think plenty of people will "call" the cycle bottom this go around, because if you do it at every low, eventually you'll be right. Was buying altcoins at their cycle bottom impressive last cycle? For most... not at all. The big "kicker" will be if Bitcoin only reaches... or doesn't reach, ATHs next cycle.
It's the invincible twist, because almost no crypto influencer has a plan for a complete cycle flop.
"So what will you do then, CryptoCon?"
At this point, I am very uninterested in buying Altcoins in the upcoming cycle. I think they are being challenged as a viable sector, like NFTs.
I do think Bitcoin still has potential. Even a run from low prices to near previous ATHs is a good return.
I also believe this would be temporary. And once the losers have been obliterated, a select few crypto will rise to maturity to continue more modest growth.
Diversifying seems smart. Stocks, Index Funds, and ETFs have become more interesting. I'm still waiting for good buying opportunities there too, before I allocate.
According to the Quartercent Cycles Theory, a major pause/recession is not projected until 2034, making it a great candidate for diversification.
UN TRADER DE CRIPTO CHINO PUBLICÓ UNA VISUALIZACIÓN DE UNA RED NEURONAL EN TIKTOK Y MOSTRÓ ACCIDENTALMENTE AL SISTEMA HACIENDO SUS OPERACIONES EN POLYMARKET EN TIEMPO REAL
Líneas de conexión azules por todas partes, capas ocultas apiladas verticalmente, neuronas disparándose por la pantalla y una pequeña etiqueta en el medio que la mayoría ignoró al verlo por primera vez: "Bitcoin XVIII".
Presentó el video como un experimento normal de IA. Una simulación de acuario virtual. Aprendizaje por refuerzo. "Enseñando comportamiento de supervivencia a la red". Ese era el título.
Pausa en el minuto 0:16.
perfil: https://t.co/p7kTf1Xnb7
El modelo no estaba aprendiendo el comportamiento de los peces.
Las etiquetas dentro de la capa oculta coincidían casi a la perfección con los mercados de predicción de Bitcoin en tiempo real: ventanas de precios, probabilidades direccionales y rangos de volatilidad se mapeaban directamente en los nodos de la red mientras la simulación seguía ejecutándose en segundo plano.
Entonces la gente encontró la billetera.
Ganancias de $367,385 en 30 días. 1,988 predicciones. Mayor victoria individual: $183,000. Casi todas las posiciones activas estaban vinculadas a mercados de rango de Bitcoin con precios de entrada entre 94 y 98 centavos; exactamente el tipo de spreads (diferenciales) de baja volatilidad que un sistema automatizado farmea de forma continua sin intervención humana.
En cuestión de una hora, los comentarios se convirtieron en un tablero de detectives. Alguien redujo la velocidad del TikTok a 0.25x, unió cada cuadro visible de la pantalla de la red neuronal y comenzó a comparar las etiquetas de la capa oculta con las posiciones activas de Polymarket en la billetera.
Los tiempos coincidían con demasiada exactitud.
Mientras los espectadores pensaban que estaban viendo una visualización de IA, el modelo estaba clasificando silenciosamente las condiciones del mercado en tiempo real en segundo plano y dirigiendo las operaciones automáticamente hacia diferentes grupos de probabilidad, dependiendo del movimiento a corto plazo de BTC.
El TikTok original consiguió 11.000 vistas.
La publicación compartida que mostraba la billetera superó las 600.000 de la noche a la mañana.
Para la mañana siguiente, la gente ya estaba clonando la interfaz, reconstruyendo el diseño de la red e intentando descubrir por qué casi todas las posiciones de la cuenta se situaban entre los 96 y 99 centavos con volúmenes de inversión inusualmente altos.
El creador original no eliminó nada.
La billetera sigue activa.
La forma más rápida de hacer copy-trading: https://t.co/a4Ii0yFcYg
Copper now diverging from gold in a meaningful way.
Yes, AI, industrial demand, and onshoring are part of the story.
But the real driver is a tightening supply-demand imbalance that the market is only beginning to price in.
That said:
Metals rarely stay disconnected for long.
This gap is setting the stage for gold to become the next catch-up trade, in my view.
https://t.co/sJjIAEqwqb
Bitcoin cycle low comes around the last quarter of 2026 with min target of $30, but could dip slightly lower. Cycle top targets $175k by 2029, however, if extends to 2030 then could reach $200k...
🛸 $QTEX Update — The thesis is no longer speculation.
Two weeks ago we posted about QTREX Quantum when it was at $2.36.
Today, two things happened simultaneously:
1. Fortune 500 Purchase Order — Confirmed
→ QTREX received a real purchase order from a U.S.-based Fortune 500 multinational
→ AME system delivery to one of the customer's international sites
→ "A unique capability that cannot be achieved through conventional technologies"
2. $10M Private Placement — Closed today
→ New fundamental institutional investor
→ Not retail. Not a pump. A fund that did due diligence and wrote a $10M check.
Where we are:
→ Entry point we shared: $2.36
→ Today: $3.80
→ Analyst target: $5.00
The CEO bought back the crown jewel of his own legacy from Nano Dimension.
A Fortune 500 just placed a real order.
An institution just committed $10M.
We don't know the name of the Fortune 500 yet.
When that drops — this is a different conversation.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
$QTEX 🛸
Somebody had to say it. 🐥
#QuantumComputing #QTEX #AME #Fortune500
🔴 #AHORA | Trump cruzó a Netanyahu en una llamada tras los ataques al Líbano: "Estás loco. Estarías en prisión si no fuera por mí. Te estoy salvando el culo. Todo el mundo te odia ahora. Todos odian a Israel por esto".
España vuelve a sobrepasar a Estados Unidos en patrimonio neto por adulto (mediano, no medio). Habría que ver lo que publica el UBS Global Wealth Report 2025 sin el peso de la propiedad inmobiliaria dedicada a primera vivienda o vivienda habitual. Evidentemente, los países con tasas de propiedad inmobiliaria más altas bajarían escalones.
$QTEX
Getting unlucky with such names a little too often these days. Companies diluting and shelling millions of shares in private placement to raise capital totally kills off the bullish sentiment
The price drop we had from $4.50 to $2.10 was a expected reaction to the dilution
It will take time for the stock to rebuild its momentum now. I was off monitors when the initial announcement dropped
These sell offs are super quick but price slowly consolidates upwards after