Wickdust

Making charts and trying to understand what’s going on.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

S&P 500... 65% 'Extended M' crash.

Across price to sales, price to book, and profit margins, today’s market is about 2x more expensive than the average of the 2008, 2000 and 1929 bubble peaks... but apparently this time is different.

$spx $spy $ndx $qqq #iran

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@bilawalsidhu Homage a Magnolia... ?

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@MichaelPBento

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has formally appointed former longtime IRGC commander-in-chief Mohsen Rezaei as the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Rezaei, one of the most hardline figures in the IRGC, is actively preparing a military response to the U.S. Naval Blockade, and has described the Strait of Hormuz as a "more powerful deterrent for Iran than dozens of atomic bombs." He has also warned Iran will turn the Sea of Oman into a "graveyard" for US forces if the naval blockade is not lifted.

Rezaei has explicitly stated Iran will not tolerate any unauthorized second shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, adding "even if they bring a warship, we will strike that warship. If they bring military forces, we will strike them," with the IRGC actively preparing the necessary military measures.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@HenrikZeberg Exactly. Interestingly, by the time the recession signal hit in 2001, the Nasdaq had already crashed roughly 50-55% from its peak... seems that markets can do a massive amount of damage before the recession signal becomes official.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

S&P 500... 3 potential paths / all leading to April 2025 tariff-crash lows.

$spx $ndx $spy $qqq

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@dodiciassei Yeah, I've also mapped a SPX to 8.0K-8.2K / NDX to 32-34K blow off top scenario.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

S&P 500... 12% drop scenario.

Pressing against the upper rail of a massive bearish rising wedge after repeatedly rejecting from this same resistance line, with the structure tightening into the apex.

$spx $spy $ndx $qqq

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@Q1QE42jYyc68168 yes, I've also mapped out that scenario.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Nasdaq 3-month chart.
Slamming into long-term resistance.
Dragonfly doji / hanging-man warning.
Lower-high on-balance volume rolling over from an extreme... could get ugly.

$ndx $qqq $zpx $spy

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Just days after Saudi Arabia signed a new defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey, two major Saudi Aramco energy sites have been reportedly hit — a fire at the Berri Gas Plant near Jubail on the Gulf coast and a separate blaze at an Aramco facility at the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast, per satellite data and Saudi officials.

NASA FIRMS detected an estimated 125 MW fire radiative power at Berri, while Saudi authorities said Aramco crews extinguished the Jazan fire with no injuries reported. The cause and extent of damage remain unclear, with no confirmed attribution for either incident.

The stakes are enormous. Jubail supplies approximately 8% of global petrochemical production and contributes more than 7% of Saudi Arabia's GDP, hosting major operations involving Saudi Aramco, SABIC, ExxonMobil, Dow Chemical, and Chevron Phillips.

The timing is critical. The attacks come just days after Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a NATO-style defense pact in Jeddah. The agreement, which features a collective defense clause, was dismissed by Iran as a "paper agreement" that would not bring security to Riyadh. The strikes may be a test of that new alliance — and a warning from Tehran that no paper pact will protect Saudi energy infrastructure. Saudi authorities have not confirmed the cause of either fire. The region remains on high alert.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Bitcoin... back-testing previous support, and might be getting rejected / potential path to $59.5K

$btc #bitcoin $ndx $qqq $eth

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@McClellanOsc Yes, I think so too...

[Wickdust @WickDust]

@G_allen__ anything's possible ;)

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Household Equity Allocation / % of Total Financial Assets chart.... we're at extreme levels and slamming into the long-term resistance channel. If history rhymes, the 'Everything Bubble' may not have much runway left.

$spx $ndx $qqq $spy

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Nvidia relative to Household Equity Allocation crash scenario.

The biggest AI darling might be peaking right as household equity exposure hits historic extremes. If this breaks, the unwind could be vicious.

$nvda $ndx $qqq $spx $spy $sox

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Nasdaq relative to Household Equity Allocation / % of Total Financial Assets chart... hitting major long-term resistance.

Back in 2000, Nasdaq peaked right as household equity exposure hit an extreme... then came the unwind.

$ndx $spx $qqq $spy

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The Israeli military has directly informed CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper that Israel does not need approval or support from the US to wage war against Iran, adding "we are currently making preparations to start the war," per Israeli Channel 13.

Israel is preparing for a unilateral strike on Iran as it concludes the US is no longer willing to finish the war on its terms.

Iran has previously threatened to strike Israel's Haifa oil refinery and Tel Aviv directly as soon as Israel strikes Iran again, with Iran having broken the air defense layer in Jordan and other Arab countries in daily attacks over the last few weeks allowing it to strike Israel more effectively, and with Israel's own interceptor stocks now critically low leaving it more vulnerable.

[Wickdust @WickDust]

Nasdaq relative to the S&P 500... potentially carving out a massive head and shoulders pattern. 2000-style leadership reversal risk is building.

Right shoulder rebound and top around the November US midterm elections before the larger breakdown...

$ndx $spx $qqq $spy