Anthony Bardaro

PM²; capital markets and tech/media/entrepreneurship; leave your mark: #DYODD #NIA

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

Naisbitt once said “We're drowning in information but starved for knowledge.”

58% now suffer fm info overload -- so Annotote’s knowledge network gives highlights of everything u need to read and lets u annotate anything u want to save or share.

Do it >>> https://t.co/IjCHcprVg9

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…Democrats are going to run Hunter Biden for president in 2028, and the stupidest outcome is him beating GOP candidate Ivanka Trump, ergo MAGA Republicans have to outstupid stupid and run Don Jr

https://t.co/zwrgGcvYbb #Election2028

[Three Year Letterman @3YearLetterman]

He mastered this app in 72 hours in a way I haven’t been able to do in almost 9 years

All you can do is tip your cap

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

They're going to run Ivanka (and Jared?) for President in Election 2028, aren't they...?!

#Trump

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

Hitting a round-ball with a round-bat (baseball) might be the most difficult act in all of the major American sports, but hockey players are the most talented in aggregate – not even particularly close imho:

sure, linebackers (football) and 7-footers (basketball) are freak athletes; but what the NHL does for 84+ games, on skates, on ice, stickhandling an erratically prone disk, in traffic, at high speed, with opponents hanging all over them, while trying to knock-your-block-off… is a miracle on the scale of "it's unbelievable that humankind actually achieved this"…

#skill

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…would be wild if the consequence of datacenter, etc supply shortages and capacity constraints was a shift from server to client¹:

offloading a lotta AI inference from cloud to your smartphone/laptop still requires hardware upgrades² and model improvisation (including self-hosted open weights³), but would incrementally solve a number of problems

__
¹https://t.co/awdyGpLxyx
²https://t.co/8LI6EegVzX
³https://t.co/FRSbFhm1K5 #iphone #mobile

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…again, AI boom getting busted by supply shortages isn't base case yet imho (e.g. I actually see a path to profitability⁴), but you can see how, for example, construction delays⁵ compound over time and everything unravels (n.b. afaik nobody knows whether or not 30~40% annual datacenter construction delay and deferral rate is normalized/worsening/catastrophic/manageable/etc) 🏁

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⁴https://t.co/BSms3Sg3AQ
⁵https://t.co/1rRas4rp8h

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…not to zag, but re the whole "companies staying private longer; startups going public after hoarding all their growth as private businesses; depriving Americans of IPO stonks that share the upside with the investing public":

1️⃣ supply shortage of publicly traded US stocks (e.g. Wiltshire <5000 and buybacks) amidst accelerating financialization¹

2️⃣ amm, look at excess returns for the past ~20 years while you've been bellyaching about VC/PE/founders hoarding gains

3️⃣ nothing anomalous about the aggregate number or dollar volument of IPO new issuance over this stretch (except, again, net supply due to accelerating repurchases)

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¹https://t.co/GgFI496Yrx

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

1⃣Series C crunch
2️⃣De facto deregulation
3⃣sustaining unsustainable disruption (not creative, just destruction)
4⃣wealth concentration

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…Congress is in session (https://t.co/Po33XHUDjk):

"The House for the first time Wednesday approved a war powers resolution that would halt the US military action against Iran, defying President Donald Trump as a handful of Republicans joined with Democrats [in a vote tally] 215-208, but next steps are uncertain…

"The resolution next goes to the Senate, where four Republican senators last month joined Democrats in advancing a similar measure [for which it] has yet to take a final vote to approve or reject its own war powers resolution… Trump would likely reject any measure from Congress to limit his commander-in-chief authority. Still, the tally, with four Republicans joining Democrats, was a rebuke of the president’s war strategy, and cheers erupted in the House chamber…

"While Congress has the authority under the Constitution to declare war, the president also has power as the commander in chief to engage in military action, creating a legal dispute over which branch of government has ultimate say in matters of war and peace. If Senate joins the House to approve the resolution, it could set the stage for a fresh legal test… Under the war powers act, the White House has a 60-day window to seek approval from Congress for military action. The administration, however, has indicated that because a ceasefire has been declared in the current conflict in Iran, the hostilities have ceased."

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

"UN Security Council permanent member veto power..." 🙃

as the United Nations Security Council hosts an open session on Russian conflict in Ukraine...
https://t.co/X7oAW6CwNI #putin

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…if Trump/Xi China summit¹ didn't make headway in Iran War resolution, rn is kinda a diplomatic airpocket for opening Strait of Hormuz

…inventory tank bottoms in June, so oil and gas futures curve in backwardation should rerate – forcing extra spicy TACO

__
¹https://t.co/Yb734gfhbS #brent #rbob $brn $bz $wti $cl_f $uso $rb_f #gasoline

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…Joe Weisenthal @stalwart 🎯 – "12 reasons why it's the coldest crypto winter ever" (https://t.co/sFIJGoejRA):

1️⃣ The crypto drawdown is happening at a period of rising anxiety about dollar

2️⃣ If you're in crypto, you can no longer plausibly say things like "we're so early"

3️⃣ Crypto twitter is dead

4️⃣ Institutional adoption already happened, removing any future tailwinds

5️⃣ The regulatory environment is already about as favorable as it gets

6️⃣ The AI boom is crowding out access to electricity (a crucial input for miners)

7️⃣ Crypto…was all over the Epstein Files

8️⃣ concern about quantum computing [breaking] Bitcoin's security model

9️⃣ DAT companies (like Strategy $mstr)… are now sellers rather than buyers of crypto…

1️⃣0️⃣ AI is taking up all the mental market share…

1️⃣1️⃣ people are making so much money [in stonks]

1️⃣2️⃣ [Zcash $zec has already won this downturn]

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

12 REASONS WHY IT'S THE COLDEST CRYPTO WINTER EVER

Back in February I wrote a list of 10 reasons why this the worst crypto winter ever.

Well everything I cited then still holds, but now I have 2 more ways it's gotten worse:

From the newsletter https://t.co/25c7dc8ulW

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

"Mark Cuban calls for more stablecoin regulation after trading DeFi token [$titan] that crashed to zero..."

#crypto

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

BREAKING: Mark Cuban calls for more stablecoin regulation after trading DeFi token that crashed to zero https://t.co/aAHwPWXFyp $TITAN

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…here's the Trump SEC crypto regulation and security laws¹ – kinda skirts Howey Test tbh:

1️⃣ most coins and tokens are digital commodities (e.g. $btc $eth $sol etc)

2️⃣ NFTs are digital collectibles

3️⃣ stablecoins

4️⃣ obvious securities (token-wrapped equity)

5️⃣ mining and staking aren't securities (PoW/PoS)

6️⃣ ICOs can be securities (primary public offerings to non-accredited or institutional investors), but secondary trading has many loopholes (exempting exchanges)

__
¹https://t.co/qpIwhN1xDb

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…NYT went ahead and did an infographic about this¹ – tracking Elon Musk's promises and deadlines for on-time, late delivery, misses, etc²:

"Elon Musk laid out 602 goals and we counted how many he hit… Strikingly, Mr. Musk's annual rate of success declined over time, even as he made more promises. Of the 13 goals he declared in 2015, he later achieved nearly three-quarters of them, [but] of the 27 claims he made in 2020, fewer than half have been accomplished on time. Some still have deadlines far in the future."

__
¹https://t.co/K7M4gWfY21
²https://t.co/k5YeU1sThN

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

@elonmusk &gt; re: https://t.co/fUazDfoIfR

Elon, would be cool for you (or your spox) to maintain a webpage to track/audit your own predictions – would be a useful self-audit and counterspeech to this exhaustive list of your missed deadlines and broken promises: https://t.co/MjWRjw8NsW

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

For my time-based predictions, I generally aim for the 50% percentile date, which means that half my predictions will be late and half will be early. The press never mentions the predictions that were early, so it seems like I’m always late.

However, it is very rare that a prediction I make does not come true over time.

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

Can argue $meta both has and hasn't done well with comms in the post Sheryl Sandberg era – messaging has def been mixed bag (how methodical is strategic direction?), but her last day as COO was 2022/07/29, at the bottom of TikTok omnicrisis, and for all the gripes about inscrutability, Zuck's actually been pretty clear about which spaghetti they're throwing against which walls…

while IR/PR doesn't matter a whole lot because supervoting control and biz en fuego, it kinda matters for second order effects (e.g. ripping an $80B mixed shelf/ATM¹ to fund said spaghetti)…

idk, just brain dumping…

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¹https://t.co/F9gcX65adg $fb #facebook

[Eric Seufert @eric_seufert]

Meta’s subscriptions and the advertising narrative blind spot

Public market investors understand subscription economics intuitively. They may be less fluent in AI-enabled advertising economics, which are harder to model, especially across the three axes I highlight in the Prosperous Society series. A recommendation-system improvement that lifts advertiser ROAS or user time spent by 3%, expands advertiser participation, and compounds into future auction density is much harder to conceptualize than a recurring monthly stream of consumer subscription revenue, despite potentially being worth orders of magnitude more.

Meta already has what other chatbot operators don’t: a high-performance advertising platform. Adopting subscriptions feels like a clumsy attempt to adapt to investor expectations rather than reshape them.

$META $SNAP

https://t.co/PKorqsXysC

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (as of month-end 5/29) – despite other wage/income/compensation measures showing material decelerations², DTS effectively maintained trend velocity, with still no signs of Iran war externalities³ ⁴:

👍 monthly:
+4.2% yoy in May
(-20bps mom May/April)

👍 quarterly:
+4.3% yoy in Q2 qtd
(+35bps qoq Q2/Q1)

👍 yearly:
+4.1% yoy in 2026 ytd

___
¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (https://t.co/aIobYwv5QN #dts)
²https://t.co/dD0MIw3uU8
³from earlier in this thread (https://t.co/y6TvWUpln5 and https://t.co/Rj538MrOXZ)

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…probability of a 2026 postwar economic bullwhip effect¹?

New orders² ³ have clearly inflected upward, as has transportation⁴ pricing and demand – simple to attribute to Iran War supply chain disruptions and shortages, but how sustainable/organic (since not much⁵ acceleration to speak of outside of AI)?

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¹https://t.co/RSADAWaqYX
²https://t.co/fBnLEZaISs
³https://t.co/wtcUMb7o7Q.
⁴https://t.co/yE0MXSKhhu (trucking has some idiosyncracies from its own bullwhip; FMCSA enforcement on safety and operations; SCOTUS ruling; etc)
⁵https://t.co/6cyVqjqnb1

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

@talmonsmith …related 🧵:

https://t.co/BWqxMGwqzo

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

@annotote …2025q2 US wealth stratification (total 🆚 top 1% 🆚 90-99% 🆚 50-90% 🆚 bottom 50%) – wealth gap still closing while liquidity flat:

1️⃣ total net worth (indexed to GFC and share)

2️⃣ TNW ($M and share)

3️⃣ checkable deposits (indexed and share)

#inequality #percentile #decile

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

> "From 2000 to 2025 the real [weekly] earnings of full-time workers essentially went unchanged"¹

incomplete if you exclude benefits (e.g. health insurance, retirement plans like 401k matches, bonuses, paid leave, etc), which have grown as a share of total compensation…

can still talk about the k-shaped and gator jaw economy² of wages vs total comp, but not income aggregates…

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¹https://t.co/zcg9LhiLnB
²https://t.co/UTitslSF6L

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

> "From 2000 to 2025 the real [weekly] earnings of full-time workers essentially went unchanged"¹

incomplete if you exclude benefits (e.g. health insurance, retirement plans like 401k matches, bonuses, paid leave, etc), which have grown as a share of total compensation…

can still talk about the k-shaped and gator jaw economy² of wages vs total comp, but not income aggregates…

__
¹https://t.co/zcg9LhiLnB
²https://t.co/UTitslSF6L

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

@OrevaZSN &gt; ‘shazam for car noises’

There's an app for that…

https://t.co/xxPP2x1huy #auto #mechanic #ai

[MIDΞ (❖,❖) @theProcessXCII]

my mechanic told me he wants to learn AI, 🤣. My car made a weird noise, before he came ChatGPT had already told me what came off, so as soon as my mechanic came over, I told him, has to be this.

He was shocked, and was like how did I know ? And I’m like I used AI, and it even added visual aid, and he’s like woah that’s crazy, cause he said, he diagnosed that would be one of the many things that could have gone wrong, but now, he’s sure that he doesn’t have to check through several parts to figure out the noise, and guess what.

ChatGPT was right, figured out where the noise was coming from, and fixed it right back. Now he’s looking to learn how to use AI to augment his work.

I’m pretty sure it will help him, he’s an uneducated elderly man btw, might be difficult to navigate, but thinking about it, he’s not scared AI will take his place, man is thinking of how he can integrate it. By doing that, he’s already ahead of his peers.

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

Insane how fast life comes at you in professional sports, NBA, etc – one week ago, Chet Holmgren thought he got drafted into a young dynasty where he'd spend the rest of his career; and this morning he's trade bait for Giannis because wemby is a unicorn…

#okc #thunder

[jordy. @ndgojordy]

this one means something to Wemby

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

@DavidSacks @pmarca …same vibe – "zero evidence of AI job losses":

https://t.co/WqJhN5x7a9 #data

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

@DavidSacks @pmarca fwiw, not sure polls show AI is unpopular like that – narrative is snowballing, unfortunately...

https://t.co/ukNicG6O3e

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…perception-reality gap in public polls¹ ² ³ about AI popular sentiment (and thus narrative fallacy cc @reckless @pierce @verge) – huge breach⁴ between those who have and haven't used AI, and regular vs irregular users:

USERS NONUSERS
😬 Anxiety:
28% 60%

😡 Anger:
18% 59%

😄 Excitement:
44% 4%

📝 "non-users are primarily driven by existential anxiety and distrust, whereas regular users are increasingly experiencing functional frustration and AI fatigue… 'horrible' polling is largely driven by a majority of Americans who have not yet integrated AI into their workflows"

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¹https://t.co/3jk9DmBtFm
²https://t.co/XcKnaBjLD6
³https://t.co/02J33qqd8A
⁴many potentially confounding factors to this data, but nobody with the bias that ‘AI is bad and the public is afraid and big tech is plowing ahead anyway’ caveats that at all, so, compared to that strawman narrative fallacy, it's more accurate to deduce people are afraid of what they don't know (especially when they're told to fear it) than that fear being a qualified opinion

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

Reminder that, a lot like remote work, doing AI correct requires (agentic) AI-first thinking and digitally native leadership who's thoughtful about implementation from first principles – sunk costs, overhead, and other baggage are disqualifying – so something in between the bad/unimaginative/despondence and of ‘just cram an AI button into our preexisting workflow’ and ‘panicked tokenmaxxing’ (as much as each of those can provide learnings)…

#fomo

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

…strong-form AI implementation will be like ‘doing remote work correctly requires management thinking remote fm first principles’:

"[executives] who know the least about AI are the most demanding about why entire departments can’t be ‘done by AI’" (https://t.co/cQHb0Ud3Qq #wfh)

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

Now long after $brk invested in $dal $aal $ual $luv (2016-20), I still find it improbable that I never heard/read any of the Berkshire stans mention that Warren Buffett has owned NetJets (formerly Executive Jet Aviation) since 1998 – def different than commerical carriers, and I'm sure there were some mentions, but just oddly omitted/underemphasized given wall-to-wall coverage…

⏮️ 1989:
$brka $brkb invested $358M in USAir preferred stock (a "mistake" per the GOAT)

⏪ 2007 (shareholder letter):
"The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down… Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it."

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

more often than not, an ironic rhetorical trick orators tend to resort to:

"let me steelman that for a moment… &lt;proceeds to not so subtlety do the exact opposite by in fact strawmanning the argument&gt;"

#oration #influencers #strawman

[Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB]

I survived the great meteor strike of 2026 – funny because literally everyone I've talked to from North Shore to South Shore and Boston thought the boom was a big tree falling down somewhere in their neighborhood (us included)…

[WBZ | CBS News Boston @wbz]

Meteor explodes off Massachusetts coast, causing loud boom, meteorologist confirms https://t.co/ymz33C6poU