Antoine Tst

Gaulliste, Tolstoïen, hussard sur le toit, voyou franco-nippon... 日本語能力試験一級 Passé par : @essec @Inalco_officiel @SorbonneParis1 Ancien @jeunesDLF

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@ChristopheHadri @MLP_officiel Dans tous les pays asiatiques, 100% des gens ont la clim’, oui si vous passez juste devant l’unité extérieure d’une clim, vous vous prenez un coup d’air chaud mais ça se dissipe 2 mètres plus loin… sortez un peu de chez vous, vous êtes complètement à la ramasse…

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@JaouadKaoukabi @MarcGuyon N’importe quoi, les yakuza ne contrôlent pas la moitié de l’économie ni même 10%, ils sont en déclin quasi terminal à peine plus de 20 000 désormais…

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@watkins_japan @VaporSoup7 @OliverJia1014 It was actually the opposite, someone mad that Abe-san was engaged with cult nutjobs.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@Hippoly23534930 @EugenieBastie Votre message est excessif.

Je suis de droite, bien catho et j’ai effectivement trouvé que les histoires étaient souvent simplistes et niaises (cf. les vikings ou le Colisée) avec un angle chrétien étalé à la truelle et pas très subtile.
Pas de quoi être scandalisé ceci dit !

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@Truthisdeadly1 @LeComteSuspendu A priori ils ne se marient pas à l’église… cérémonie laïque.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@ChivalryGuild Tucker Carlson is one of the dumbest and most disgusting voices of the American alt-right.
From supporting Putin, promoting hatred of Israel to giving a voice to Iranian islamists, he deserves only contempt.

Nothing chivalrous about him.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@p_duval Oulala si c’est vrai c’est vraiment très grave !
L’horreur, quasiment le nazisme.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@todayinhistory Your thread is quite imprecise and contains one big mistake.

The French troops never conquered the Hougoumont farm.

You must be confusing with another farm on the battlefield « La Haye-Sainte » which was indeed captured by the French troops by late afternoon.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@VolodimirZelen1 Vous êtes un sale menteur qui ne valez pas mieux que des trolls russes avec leur propagande poutinienne…

Lamentable de votre part.
Vous desservez la cause ukrainienne.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@wholemars 😂💯

Also, to be clear, I am NOT taking drugs! The New York Times was lying their ass off.

I tried *prescription* ketamine a few years ago and said so on 𝕏, so this not even news. It helps for getting out of dark mental holes, but haven’t taken it since then.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@Antartia46 @bfmbusiness @carlosghosn @renault_fr @BFMTV Vous avez bien tort d’avoir la moindre confiance dans la justice japonaise…

Carlos Ghosn a bien fait de fuir ce pays où il serait devenu la victime collatérale de rivalités entre la France et le Japon pour le contrôle de Nissan.

[Philippe Lemoine @phl43]

Except on vaccines, what he says is either false or misleading though.

Nobody ever denied that "long covid" would turn out to be real, in the sense that some people infected by SARS-CoV-2 would experience some kind of post-viral syndrome (because that's the case for every respiratory virus), but that's obviously not what the people would hyped "long covid" for months were talking about.

They were predicting that a huge share of the population would end up permanently or semi-permanently disabled and that obviously didn't happen. This narrative fueled a huge mass psychosis and to pretend that, because some people did experience a post-viral syndrome after the initial symptoms, "long covid" turned out to be real is a great example of motte and bailey.

It's true that, during the first wave at least, most of the reduction in economic activity would probably have happened even without lockdowns, but lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions still reduced economic activity and increased the fiscal cost of the pandemic, especially in places where they were left in place for a long time or repeatedly imposed even after the first wave made it clear the most pessimistic forecasts about the impact of the pandemic were false.

(Even the claim that, during the first phase of the pandemic, most of the economic loss would have happened in the absence of lockdowns is still kind of misleading, in the sense that people may not have reduced their social and economic activity as much had the authorities not fueled the panic by imposing lockdowns almost everywhere. However, this would probably have resulted in worse health outcomes, which just confirms that, despite the nonsense economists peddled at the time and that Tyler unfortunately repeats here, there was still a tradeoff.)

Moreover, the impact of lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions is not limited to the economic and fiscal effects, they also had a massive impact on people's welfare. When the French government closed every bars and restaurants and imposed a curfew between October-November 2020 and May-June 2021, this didn't just reduce economic activity and increased the fiscal cost of the pandemic (it's amazing that some people still deny that), but also had a massive adverse effect on people's well-being by destroying their social life.

You may reply that Tyler was only talking about the US, but even putting aside the fact that similar remarks could be made about the US (especially with respect to school closures), that would be forgetting that he is writing in defense of expertise and that at the time experts in the US were lamenting the fact that US authorities were not implementing more stringent restrictions like in Europe.

And they were doing so based on modeling that, even at the time, was already known to be completely worthless. For instance, in a paper that was published in early 2021, American economist Anna Scherbina argued that a 4-week lockdown at the time would save the US economy over $600 billion based on a SIR-type model of the same kind that overestimated COVID-19 deaths by more than an order of magnitude in Sweden during the first wave and many other places subsequently.

Again, not only were those modeling failures egregious and ubiquitous, but experts continued to rely on the same models long after it became absolutely clear that they were worthless and there was never any reckoning for that fiasco. Unfortunately, as Tyler's article illustrates, even today experts and their defenders insist on memory-holing it.

I do think that expertise is valuable in general, so I don't object to that view per se, but if you want to argue for that position, the pandemic has to be one of the worst cases you can pick. Experts spent months if not years peddling garbage science long after it had become clear that it was worthless, largely for political reasons. It's one of the worst cases of the politicization of science in recent history and it's just amazing that anyone would use that example to defend expertise.

Again, I don't deny that expertise is valuable, but that's only true if experts are responsive to evidence, admit their mistakes and don't make claims that go beyond what the evidence supports for political reasons. In the case of the pandemic, they failed that test miserably, which undermined trust in expertise. If you're not willing to criticize experts when they're full of shit, then don't complain when people ignore them even when they're right, as on Trump's trade policy 🤷‍♂️

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@fakenine_ Certes mais au Japon il y a un tiers payant de 30%.

C’est à dire que chaque patient paye 30% de tout acte médical, même avec son assurance.

En France on dirait que c’est un scandale car inégalitaire…

[Eitan Fischberger @EFischberger]

All that said, the “debate” confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Woke Right is real.

The reaction online to their heroes being exposed as clowns mirrors the behavior of the Woke Left and dealt their movement a major blow.

Now they’re on the defensive for the first time

[Kassy Akiva @KassyAkiva]

I didn’t think I could respect @DouglasKMurray more than I already do

[Ferghane Azihari 🌐 @FerghaneA]

« Car pour certaines leur interdire de pouvoir porter le voile c’est les priver de sport et donc d’une activité sociale ».

Ce qui est consternant dans ces prises de position, c'est que certains ne se rendent même pas compte que le phénomène qu'ils redoutent est, en soi, révélateur d'un fanatisme profondément ancré.

Si le fait de ne pas pouvoir arborer un « bout de tissu inoffensif », une croix, ou une kippa, ou n'importe quel autre accessoire profane conduit un individu - SOUS CE SEUL PRÉTEXTE - à renoncer à toute activité sociale, c'est que cet individu est profondément fanatisé ou soumis à d'autres fanatiques.

Dans ce cas, la réprobation sociale autour dudit symbole et de la superstition qu'il véhicule touche parfaitement sa cible.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@TiboInShape Lamentable, désabonnement immédiat sur YouTube.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@stats_feed How can France, n°1 tourist destination in the world not be in a top 21?

Your bias is obvious.

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@BussellLongo @EugenieBastie Au bout de quelques mois, il était clair que ce virus n’était véritablement dangereux que pour les personnes âgées et/ou en surpoids et/ou de santé fragile.

Et la Chine communiste totalitaire n’est pas une référence.

[Marianne @MarianneleMag]

Marcel Gauchet : "En Europe, on considère les droits individuels comme supérieurs à l’autorité de la majorité" https://t.co/PeMSx9MuAL

[Antoine Tst @Antoine_Tst]

@MorisRenaud @J_Bardella Bah c’est quand même normal qu’on les sanctionne, la Russie ne cesse d’envahir ses pays voisins et de causer des centaines de milliers de morts…
On ne va pas leur dire merci…