#BTC Weekly Chart
The death cross between the BMSB and the 50W SMA has only occurred four times in Bitcoin’s history. And each time, it was followed by a major drawdown between 55-72% from the price at death cross including the COVID crash.
Now, it looks like the new week opened with a 5th death cross.
#BTC 12 Month Chart
As $BTC approaches the final days of 2025, there’s a strong chance it could close the year in the red. If that happens, it would mark a notable shift in the yearly chart pattern that’s been developing since the early days. Or is it just following a pattern?
Historically, Bitcoin’s 12-month candles followed a clear rhythm: four consecutive green candles in the early years, followed by two cycles with three straight green candles each. So far, this cycle has only logged two green yearly candles unless $BTC closes above $93,403.02 for the year.
This evolving pattern points to decreasing volatility over time. The real signal, however, lies in the post-halving years. Since 2013, every post-halving yearly candle has shrunk in size. The 2021 candle, for example, was not only the smallest green candle of that cycle but also formed a textbook shooting star, hinting at exhaustion.
With that in mind, it would be consistent if this current post-halving year ends with an even smaller candle than 2021, potentially printing a bearish doji. That would align with the broader narrative of diminishing returns and fading momentum as the market matures.
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