Joshua Mikula

Managing Partner, Arvo Equities. We invest in markets and acquire, build and scale businesses. Insights on operations, growth and capital.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

How we run a portfolio of digital brands with an AI operating team. The model, the guardrails and the lessons so far:

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@XFreeze I had the same experience. I was at 45% went to 92% the next day now I'm back at 50%. (On Cursor Ultra Legacy Plan)

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Alphabet just had its worst one-day drop on record (-12%). Same week, Coca-Cola and P&G quietly outperformed.

The boring part of a portfolio isn't there to win. It's there so you're still calm enough to think when the exciting part breaks.

What's the most boring thing you own?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Sunday night: "This week I work ON the business, not IN it."

Monday 9:07 AM: on hold with the bank, unjamming the printer, and approving a $14 refund like it's a merger vote.

Operators, what's the first thing that drags you back IN every Monday?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@Codie_Sanchez Meeting-for-everything is usually a missing decision rule. If nobody knows who can decide without a meeting, the calendar becomes the org chart.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Software Circle bought healthcare software firm Gintech for "up to £4.5m."

Fine print: £2.6m at close, £0.6m in a year, up to £1.3m earn-out.

That's how small deals get done. The headline price is the seller's number. The structure is the buyer's.

Would you take 58% up front?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@pranamify Timing is the headline, wording is the signal. Whether the resignation letter cites disagreements or reportable events says more than the 13-month mark.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@MichaelMOTTCM Horror show is fair. S&P Q3 growth is ~30% per FactSet, but companies beat by only 1.4% vs a 7.5% five-year average. Big headline, thin cushion.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Amazon just became the third hyperscaler, after Alphabet and Meta, to report negative free cash flow.

EPS can look fine while the cash vanishes into data centers.

Earnings tell you the story. Free cash flow tells you who's paying for it.

What line do you check first?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@JoeyNelson2022 @Orvannis @Codie_Sanchez Fix it once, write it down, and the next hire inherits the fix instead of the fire. What was the first SOP you wrote that actually stuck?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Scariest Halloween costumes for investors and operators:

- "I'll just check my portfolio once"
- A stock that beat earnings and went up
- Someone who actually read the 10-K
- A small business owner on vacation, fully offline

What would you add to the list?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@KobeissiLetter Weakest post-earnings reaction of any sector even with results mostly fine suggests the bar was set by positioning, not fundamentals.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

PE's October shopping list: garage door repair, forklift service, pump and motor repair.

Pattern: they keep buying the stuff that breaks.

The sale is one check. The repair call comes back every year, and nobody shops price at 2am.

What boring service business would you buy?

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla is celebrating Halloween this year by having a Cybercab autonomously drive around Austin with skeletons inside haha 🎃

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@benln Hi Ben, can you allow us to see the pass in vault. My agents are making accounts for things and then I need the password later down the line. They cant give it to me and I cant see it.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Friday: S&P 500 -1.8%, its worst day since June. Nasdaq -2.9%. Intel -28.6%, its worst drop since 1974.

The lesson isn't "AI is over." It's that a "diversified" index fund can quietly be one trade wearing 500 tickers.

Have you checked how much of yours rides on one theme?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@dallastesla They accidently left the windshield wiper fluid refill bottle in mine. Basically the same thing.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Inkle just bought Finally's bookkeeping arm, all-cash. ~100 staff join, and clients keep the same teams.

In a service business you buy relationships, not software.

Keep the people the client knows. Swap the tools behind them.

What breaks first when a buyer changes the team?

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@Codie_Sanchez Being underestimated also lowers the cost of testing ideas. Nobody is watching closely, so you get more cheap reps before anyone starts competing with you.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

@SahilBloom Reliability compounds the same way capital does. Nobody notices one kept promise, but after a few years it's the reason people hand you the bigger opportunities.

[Joshua Mikula @ArvoPartner]

Intel and Twilio both beat earnings this week and still sold off hard. Twilio even raised its full-year outlook.

The market wasn't grading last quarter. It graded the slope:
- Next-quarter guide vs. consensus
- Slowing growth
- Cash spent to get it

What do you read first?