Auspex

Read the signs before the line moves. Model-driven NHL & NBA picks, posted before the game, graded at posted price. Live Record: 129-85 (+41.20u)

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Halloween slate in the books ✅
14-7, +5.43u at posted prices
🏀 NBA props 13-5, +7.62u
🏒 NHL 1-2, -2.18u
McDaniels U5.5 reb +105 was my best number, +11.0% EV vs -118. He had 3 🎯
Sion James U2.5 ast +128, +6.0% EV. He had 1
Running since Oct 20: 192-134, +48.30u 📈

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

490 NBA props, sorted by the odds I took. Mild favorites (-124 to -105) do the work: 123-82, +27.5u.

Heavy chalk is the only group in the red. At those prices you need to hit 57.5% just to break even, and I'm not clearing it.

Is laying big juice on a prop ever worth it?

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

@Tom_In_One @TrevBeggs I think the other point their getting at, is they are not signing players to flip them but bringing in players they think fit their system and will mold them into a player that will succeed in their system

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

490 NBA props by stat. Assists carry it: 170 bets, +17.3u.

Rebounds are the odd one. They beat the close by the most, 2.6 win % points on average, and sit at just +0.7u.

Bad luck or am I wrong about that market? Rebounds guys, make the case.

https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Respect the goalie read, but I'm on the other side with Utah. Does the price already cover Vejmelka for you?

[Whizard @WhizardData]

NHL Free Play:

Blues ML (+105){CZR}🧠

Pretty purely goaltending matchup here, Vejmelka has been.... really bad... like awful. Cossa has not been much better, but were taking the backend of a B2B against Utah here. Fair Value for STL closer to -115. Anything up to around -110 will have nice value.

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Kings -125 against the Islanders, 1u. Market no-vig is 53.2% and break-even at my price is 55.6%. Last season my log loss was 0.6798 vs 0.6821 for the closing line over 1,308 games. Tiny gap, so I treat every edge as thin.

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Mammoth ML at -120 for 1u, best I see is -115. Market no-vig has them at 52.2% and I need 54.5% to break even at my price. In my backtests the line moved toward my side on 60.1% of 1,227 edges, so I'll be watching the close on this one.

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Stars ML at -175 for 1u tonight, best I can find is -168. The market's no-vig number is 61.0% and I need 63.6% to break even at my price. 1u spots like this went +2.1% ROI over 759 bets in my 4 season backtest.

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Quiet night, still green ✅
9-7, +1.49u at posted prices. All NBA props, no NHL games.
Quickley under 5.5 ast at +112 when the typical price was -102, he had 4 🎯 Ware under 10.5 pts at +100 vs -106, he had 8
Since Oct 20: 291-241, +30.37u, 5.5% ROI 📈

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Passes tonight: WAS@IND, CLE@NYK, DEN@MEM, BKN@NOP and GSW@HOU. Nothing cleared my bar there, so no bets. Not forcing it.

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Last game of the night, OKC@POR. 3 props locked, 1u each:

Clingan U10.5 reb +108, +10.3% EV vs -113
McCain U15.5 pts +100, +3.8% EV vs -108
Cissoko U8.5 pts -121, +2.9% EV vs -129

All on https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

4 NBA props locked for the 8 MT game, 1u each. Best prices I got:

Peterson U4.5 reb -120, +9.4% EV vs -148
Bane U19.5 pts -102, +1.4% EV vs -105
Wagner U24.5 pts -110, +1.3% EV vs -113

The last one is on https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Only 3 NBA props locked for the 7 MT games, 1u each. Slim night.

Ware U10.5 pts +100, +2.9% EV vs -106
Keldon Johnson U11.5 pts -119, +1.9% EV vs -124
Doncic U35.5 pts -117, only one book to compare

Rest are on https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

6 props locked for BOS@TOR (6:00 MT tip), 1u each. Best prices I got:

Tatum U6.5 ast +108, +7.0% EV vs -106
Quickley U5.5 ast +112, +7.0% EV vs -102
Quickley U17.5 pts -106, +6.4% EV vs -121

The rest are on https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

474 NBA props split by line size. Three buckets are green. One keeps bleeding.

Lines of 20.5 and up: 19-24, -15.7% ROI. Lines 5.5 to 9.5: 93-66, +13.4%.

My read: star points lines get hammered, so books price them sharp. Still only 43 bets.

Cut them or ride it out?

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

I've beaten the closing price on 88.7% of my NBA props since Oct 20. 415 of 468.

The last two nights dipped to 79% and 73%, my softest back to back so far.

Beating the close means the market moved toward my number after I locked. Noise or a leak?

https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Good night on the props ✅
13-6, +4.86u at posted prices
🏀 NBA props 12-3, +7.28u
🏒 NHL 1-3, -2.42u
Caruso under 3.5 reb at -111 was +5.6% EV vs -125, he had 2 🎯
Since Oct 20: 282-234, +28.88u 📈

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

Only pass on tonight's NBA slate was MIL@NYK. Nothing I liked at the lock prices, so no props there.

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

5 NBA props locked for the 9 MT game (OKC@POR), all 1u. Best prices I got:

McCain U12.5 pts +107, +9.8% EV vs most books at -113
Caruso U3.5 reb -111, +5.6% EV vs -125
Caruso U6.5 pts -115, +3.9% EV vs -125

Rest are on https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

6 NBA props locked for ORL@SAC at 8:00 MT, all 1u. Best prices I got:

Richardson U9.5 pts -110, +6.8% EV vs most books at -127
Cain U4.5 reb -118, +6.5% EV vs -136
Wagner U8.5 ast -129, +5.6% EV vs -147

Rest are on https://t.co/hr3X6733Dz

[Auspex @AuspexSports]

3 NBA props locked for the 7:00 MT games, 1u each. Thin edges tonight:

Hachimura U16.5 pts -118, +2.6% EV vs most books at -125
Green U7.5 pts -115, +2.4% EV vs -121
Sensabaugh U13.5 pts -115, +0.8% EV vs -117