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Every few months, the quantum FUD cycle for Bitcoin cranks back up.
Google says 2029 is when quantum will be able to break Bitcoin.
A new research paper drops, and tech journalists lose their minds claiming, "Bitcoin is dead."
We sat down with @TheGuySwann this week, and want to walk you through why he is not panicking.
First, what is a quantum computer actually trying to do?
A normal chip is always a zero or a one. Binary is the basis of classical computing.
Now imagine you set up billions of tiny gates, and every single one of them sits perfectly between a zero and a one.
Neither state has collapsed yet. You design the circuit so there is one single path of least resistance through the algorithm.
Electricity, like water running down a rock, wants to follow the path of least resistance.
The idea is that if you can build an environment so perfectly isolated from all outside noise, all those gates would just fall into the right orientation on their own.
Instead of brute-forcing every possibility like classical computing, you are letting physics do the work.
That is the dream of error-correcting qubits.
When it comes to Bitcoin, quantum computing would theoretically design a circuit where the path of least resistance leads you straight from public key back to private key.
The theory is beautiful, but what about the reality?
Shor's algorithm, the main theoretical framework for cracking public key cryptography with a quantum computer, dates to the late 1980s.
The theory is not holding anyone back, it's the constraints of physical reality.
An actual quantum computer is submerged in liquid nitrogen and is shielded from electromagnetic interference, beta rays, gamma rays, and temperature fluctuations.
The entire engineering challenge of quantum computing is that you are trying to build a chip that the universe cannot touch.
Every stray bit of interference collapses your qubits. Every vibration, every cosmic ray, every fluctuation in temperature throws off your calculation.
This is a fundamental physics problem and it has been the core obstacle for decades.
There is a newer approach where researchers try to simulate qubit behavior using classical computing hardware.
This is partly what some of the more recent "milestones" involve.
And while it is not worthless research, Guy is skeptical that it scales to the kind of operation needed to threaten 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography.
Guy is not dismissing quantum computing as a long-run consideration.
Smart people take it seriously as does the Bitcoin developer community.
Post-quantum cryptography upgrades will likely happen as a precautionary measure regardless of whether a genuine threat materializes.
Watch the clip and the next time you see a "quantum will kill Bitcoin" headline, ask one question: has any quantum computer factored a two-digit number yet?
Full interview: https://t.co/SPaVYflxmR