Axel

STOCKS

[Axel @Axel_8014]

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[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

Yup!

And that those non-random times tend to happen at very specific points (breakouts / breakdowns) and capitulations (upside or downside).

I’d assume the best traders, most of their entries can be categorized in one of those two situations.

A lot of the in-between is what I call no-man’s land and is where I and most traders give back pnl made in places described above.

[CJ @IntlSpeculator]

An article on Jesse Livermore from a 1908 issue of Richard Wyckoff's magazine, "The Ticker."

The Secret of Success

"My success thus far has not been in any sense due to luck, but solely because I started out early to make a life study of the market." — Jesse L. Livermore.

In a recent interview, Jesse L. Livermore, who was reputed to have made a million on last year’s break in the stock market and several hundred thousand dollars in a recent cotton deal, gave a few of the reasons for his success.

"It was not a matter of luck," said Mr. Livermore. "Any one who figures that his success is dependent upon chance, may as well stay out of the market. His attitude is wrong at the very start. The great trouble with the average speculator is, he thinks the market is a gambling proposition. This has been the mistake of most speculators who have risked their all in the stock market. As a result, we see thousands of ruined careers.

"A trader should realize at the outset that speculation is a profession, just as the study of law or medicine is a profession; that certain rules apply to it that are to be studied as closely as if he were a law student preparing for the bar.

"Many people attribute my success to luck—chance. The fact is, speculation was born in me and for fifteen years I have studied this subject closely; you might say I have given my life to it, concentrating upon it and putting into it my very best. The requisites for a successful speculator are: Insight and intuition; one must have a talent for it, must make the subject a study, must acquire experience, and, what is most important, have the nerve to plunge at the psychological moment.

"Many people believe they can attend to their regular business and trade in the market between times. This is a vital mistake. If they cannot devote their entire attention to the subject, they should let it alone. In my own case, I had a craving for this line of work in my boyhood and my success, thus far has not been in any sense due to luck, but solely because I started out early to make a life study of the market."

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

You should try to add to a trade that is confirming your thesis, provided the addition fits your plan, the upside is still asymmetric, and risk remains controlled.

Or more simply: when you believe you have the market by the balls, squeeze them harder.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

A harsh reality
Are you out to turn a little into a lot in a hurry?
Look folks, there has been tons of research done on the success rate of retail traders. By exchanges, regulatory agencies, brokerage houses, trading platforms, academic researchers and the like.
The numbers are in and you are a fool to begin with if you think your are an outlier -- although all retail traders think they are outliers (and they usually are on the left side of the bell curve distribution).
Expectations and eagerness to trade for the sake of money are inversely correlated with success. Sorry, but true (of course except for in your dream world).
You want to turn $50k into $5 million in five years? Well, go for it if you that is your dream. But know that professional career traders in zero-sum markets (like futures, day trading anything and crypto) plead with you to trade their asset class. Please, I beg you to trade futures (my asset class).
Fresh meat is always welcomed.
Maybe you are among the 2 in 1,000 that can with a few years of experience achieve back-to-back-to back-100% years. I do not want to do anything to prevent your effort. I wish you well. In 50 years I've witnessed many try.
Or, do you have realistic profit expectations and want to become excellent in some niche of market speculation?
Then you have a chance.
But your chance depends on your ability to protect your capital and avoid big losses.
Here is the reality folks -- the real world where 99% of us live.
Pick your asset class. Now have adequate capital (the amt is disputable but I use the figure of $50k). Next know that no matter what you do it will take three to five years to even pick up the scent of where your excellence might be hiding.
Your challenge will be to develop some scheme or system or approach that is repeatable. Every successful trader has a different method. No exceptions. You cannot copy anyone. There are reasons why I won't go into.
You might have to try a few different approaches to find what methods are suitable to you.
But here is the HUGE challenge you face.
You will have to keep your capital intact (relatively speaking) or have deep pockets to get through the three to five years of the steep learning curve.
You will also need to avoid the fast talkers who want you to believe they have your answers.
Following are appeals I received via email in just the past week from "reputable" trading services (these are verbatim):

-$10,000 into $30,417. 14 out of 20 trades doubled
-that's a 1,004% return in 6 days, turning a $605 bet into $6,684
-1004% on UMAC
- +100% on BBAI in a day
-See how stock flips could have made $92,000 in one year!
-Soured 1,025% in just six months
-convinced this could be this year's next 1,000%

You fall for these lines, you are done for. Another reality is that not everyone is made for crazy success in trading. Most people would be better off living frugally and putting as much money as they can into a 50% SPY, 30% fixed income, 10% energy and 10% precious metals portfolio and let it work over time. Then pursue a day job that excites you.

So, don't be conned by the circus acts that promise you the moon. Trading is hard work. Tedious. Boring often. Stressful.

My standard recommendation to most young people is to get an education in a field that you like and where jobs are available. Like welding. Or supply chain management. Or engineering.

98% of you young folks will thank me for this advice someday.

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

In equity world we get far too little exposure to learning about @bp22 & @johnarnold.

Bill’s book “Die With Zero” is a fav of mine. Not just for its philanthropic message, but also for the message that life has chapters, make sure you enjoy the beauty of each one.

[Naval Quotes @NavalQuotes247]

"Be patient, it takes 10 years to build a career in anything."

@naval

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

“If I see someone else succeeding, I think that if he can do it, why cant I?” @Tradestl

Those that succeed at trading don’t avoid struggle. They refuse to quit bc they recognize success is possible. And with intense effort, what is possible becomes probable over the long run.

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

the greatest energy trader of all time on what being the best actually costs you:

"i would sit there from six in the morning to 6 at night staring at the screen. go out with people from the industry that night. dream about the industry. in the shower in the morning i'd be thinking about it. after doing that for 17 years, at some point i just had to step back."

nobody tells you this part. the people who become the best in the world at one thing are almost never the best at anything else while they're doing it.

[Axel @Axel_8014]

SEGUNDO RETIRO! GRACIAS @TradeThePool
VAMOS POR MAS !

[Amrit Sall @SallAmrit]

The sniper and the trader share a common trait- precision. Just as a sniper must be laser-focused and patient, waiting for the perfect shot, a trader must be methodical and disciplined, waiting for the right opportunity to strike

[Amrit Sall @SallAmrit]

The most powerful tool we all have is the ability to choose what we focus on.

Life isn't defined by the circumstances we're in, but how we choose to respond.

Don't let a negative mindset limit your potential, choose to focus on the positives and watch your life change!

[jack schwager @jackschwager]

#UnknownMarketWizards #Trading #Quote 108/155
Any idiot can make something complicated. When I look back at the trades responsible for my best return months,they just scream out to me, This is a big trade opportunity.
@SallAmrit
https://t.co/R0c7K0OsZT
#trader #traders #equities

[Amrit Sall @SallAmrit]

By staying agile and adaptive, I can seize the opportunities that emerge from unfolding events and trade them with confidence." #TradingStrategies #MarketAdaptability #ProbabilitiesShifted

[Amrit Sall @SallAmrit]

"In trading, I don't rely on predictions - not even my own. Instead, I wait for the market to reveal its hand and shift the probabilities in my favour #UnicornSniper

[Amrit Sall @SallAmrit]

Day to day, not much happens. Year to year, something happens. Decade to decade, EVERYTHING happens!!!

That’s from someone with real skin in the game over multiple decades.

This applies in markets, and it applies in life.

Progress is often invisible in the short term. But over time, discipline compounds. What feels stagnant is often growth in disguise.

The task is simple: show up, stay patient, and endure 🙏🏽

[Jeff Sun, CFTe @jfsrev]

You need to be highly intentional with how you spend your time and the quality of information that aligns with your style if you want to improve your performance.

[Jeff Sun, CFTe @jfsrev]

there are sacrifices. the journey requires solitude and minimal distraction. be selective with how you spend your time everyday, down to every single hour. it's not about staring the live market chart, it's the post market process, including cultivating a sustainable lifestyle that's healthy and zen for mental well being.

[Jeff Sun, CFTe @jfsrev]

This market will make you appreciate high ADR% securities.

[Valckrie @Valckrie]

Good read on thinking in probabilities, dynamic EV, and evolving permutations from the new market wizard memoir post:

"Correct thinking looks different.

Same chart. Same breakout. But now, as Peacoat notices it on his scanner, he runs through a specific and routinized checklist that insulates him from whatever emotion he may or may not feel about the setup. This fits Bucket A. High-odds setup. I'll risk this amount, stop here, and define the signals that would increase or decrease my certainty in real time. If X happens, I add. If Y happens, I cut. If Z happens, I wait. Not one future but a matrix, and gradients instead of binaries."

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

Stanley Druckenmiller:

“Life goes in streaks. And like a hitter in baseball, sometimes a money manager is seeing the ball and sometimes they're not.”

When investors are down, they tend to get aggressive to win it back. Druckenmiller: “One of my most important jobs as a money manager was to understand whether I was hot or cold...”

“In my opinion, when you're cold, you should be trying for bunts.”

[sergidown @sergidown]

Por supuesto que habría sido mas difícil. Para triunfar en cualquier ámbito hace falta una componente d suerte.

Porque la suerte es lo que sucede cuando la preparación se encuentra con la oportunidad.