NEW from me:
Americans are set to lose nearly $250B gambling this year—a record high, up more than 60% since 2019—and that's before counting unofficial betting via prediction markets or crypto
Can anything stop America's gambling boom? 🧵
USA Investing Quote of the Day: “The impression has built up that the stock market is the cause of booms and busts. Actually, it is the thermometer — not the fever.” - Bernard Baruch
Today is the day bulls start celebrating. The S&P 500 's 12-day mid-year rally window begins today.
Since 2010, this period has been negative just once. Going back to 1950, $SPX has gained a median of 1.5% during this stretch, with a 74% positivity rate
Mind blowing stat: Market weighted S&P 500 $SPY is down more than 1% this week while equal weighted RSP is up more than 1%.
This is the only time this has happened since $RSP started trading in 2003.
Sorry, bears. Despite headline weakness, average stock is doing just fine.
Another Hindenburg so called Omen has been triggered for the 8th time in 30 trading days. Some permabull must have pissed off the Hindenburg so bad.
Since 1970, no other year has seen 8 Hindenburg Omens triggered twice within a rolling 30 trading day window.
@Mr_Derivatives There could be a minor pullback, without undercutting March lows.
When $SPX gained more than 8% in the first 100 trading days, the year's low occurred on or before March in 24 of 25 cases (great odds). In 17 of those cases, S&P 500 did not peak until December.
For only the 25th time in 7,888 trading days, the semiconductor index $SOX is now almost 75% above its 200-day moving average.
The last time this happened, the index peaked just nine trading days later. The dot-com bubble then burst, and $SOX eventually fell more than 80%.
Yes, Friday saw the S&P 500 fall 2.6%, which is the worst day of the year so far.
Good time to remember that even the best years have bad a day or two (or more).
22 times the S&P 500 gained more than 20% for the year and the average worst day was 3.5%. In fact, there was a day in 1997 it fell nearly 7% and still gained more than 30% for the year.
Nasdaq 100 Stocks with 400% returns over past year:
-2000 peak = 22
-Today = 6
The number of extreme Nasdaq winners today is the highest it has been since 2000, but there is a long way to go to match the mania of the previous Tech Bubble.