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Bitcoin bear markets follow the same rules every cycle.
It’s simple:
Rule 1: Bear markets last at least 350 days.
Rule 2: The bottom doesn’t form before MA 350 gets tagged.
Rule 3: Every relief rally before that is a trap.
Rule 4: Price always drops lower than people expect.
Rule 5: The bottom forms when time, price, and sentiment align.
Now look at today:
By timing, Bitcoin is already around 60% through the bear cycle.
That’s the good news.
But price has not caught up yet.
BTC is still trading near $80,000.
And the 350-day moving average is sitting around $47k.
Completely untouched.
That means one thing:
The final flush is still ahead.
Not because Bitcoin is dead.
Because this is how bear markets finish.
The market gives you hope.
Then it takes it away.
When MA 350 finally gets tagged, that’s when I’ll become the loudest bull in the room.
Until then, every pump is just part of the trap.
Remember, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
🚨 ÚLTIMA HORA: Ahora Claude puede crear tu currículum y perfil de LinkedIn completos de forma gratuita.
Rehice mi perfil y en 3 días tenía entrevistas con Big Tech. Gratis y en minutos.
Te comparto los 12 prompts que cambiaron mi tasa de respuesta👇
https://t.co/Uxx3VoPERj
🚨 ULTIMA HORA: Acaban de lanzar un modelo de IA que piensa y genera imágenes al mismo tiempo.
No primero texto, luego imagen. Todo en simultáneo, como lo hace el cerebro humano.
Menos artificial. Más inteligente.
DEJA DE USAR CHATGPT PARA TODO
✴️ Aprende Claude. Le da mil vueltas
Te dejo este documento donde te explico:
- Chat
- Cowork
- Proyectos
- Artefactos
- Excel
- Conectores
- Plugins
- Skills
Todo lo que necesitas AHORA 👇
🔖 Guárdatelo y no lo pierdas
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know🚩
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Since September 2025, I have been sharing my outlook and expectations for Bitcoin and how things would unfold over the coming months. At the short entry of 115–125K, I first gave a target of 100K, which was reached just a few weeks after my prediction. After that, I clearly stated that a sideways move would follow before a drop to 60K. Back then, this was hard to believe, yet it played out exactly as expected a few weeks later. At 60K, I said we would enter a sideways range, with a box between 57K–87K. Bitcoin recently moved up to 76K, and just a few days later dropped sharply back to 68K. Is this the bullish trap I have been talking about? Yes, it is one of the traps in this region before continuation to the downside.
My strategy is very simple. I sold the Bitcoin I bought two weeks ago in the 68K region and I am only holding my larger short from 115–125K. I am willing to add more shorts in the 79–84K region with x5 leverage, and these orders are already placed. We are in a big bear market scenario, not only for Bitcoin but also for the overall stock market. Back in September, I pointed out significant liquidity stress in the repo market, as well as the increasing RISKS on the Fed’s standing repo facility. In addition, we are seeing ongoing manipulation in silver and gold markets, where futures prices are becoming increasingly disconnected from physical supply, which continues to be drained. Oil prices are rising, aligning with the analysis I shared two months ago when I entered Chevron, currently one of the biggest winners from these developments. AI and data-related stocks are heavily overinvested and overbought. I shorted these sectors, and the positions were shared in premium back in November. Many of them are already down 30–40%, including stocks like PLTR, MSFT, and Coinbase. All my short positions are currently in profit. I am short Bitcoin, stocks (especially AI-focused), and indices in the UK, Germany, and Japan.
What am I bullish on? Only a few assets: Chevron stock, physical metals, and Oil. I am also holding a long on oil, which I shared two weeks ago in premium at an entry of $84. That is my current portfolio positioning. I expect the bear market to dominate most assets while only a few selected ones remain strong. Bitcoin is currently in a weak position and lacks clear direction, which explains the ongoing sideways movement. However, the next major move is still likely to the downside. Market makers are attempting to push the price higher to capture liquidity above, before driving it lower. At the same time, based on current data, they appear more cautious due to the macro and geopolitical environment which is also for them a high risk to make any big moves for now.
For this reason, I have slightly adjusted my short entry zone to 79–84K, where my orders are now placed. Until then, I continue holding my core short from 115–125K. A few days ago, I mentioned XRP. I entered a position, and it moved 16% higher shortly after. However, I took profits and publicly shared that I closed the trade with around 5% gain. The reason is simple, the risk-reward is no longer as attractive as it was a few weeks ago, and this with considering the potential for a broader Bitcoin move. This is also why I am no longer holding spot positions in Bitcoin. The next major downside move is only a matter of time. I am not ruling out another fake move before that happens, and if we do see it, I will use it to add further short positions, but overall we are heading to TARGET 3 which is showed on the chart.
The FOMC last week gave us another great insight into where we are heading. The next rate cut is now expected in December 2026, much later than the market anticipated. I remember when I announced the last rate cut in December 2025, and people were saying we would see another one at the next FOMC meeting. They were wrong. Now watch the fear in the markets unfold, no rate cuts in place, while inflation is increasing based on the latest PPI and Core PPI data. Scary, right? Do you know that your left eye is connected to the right side of your brain, which is the center of emotions? Some people really need to become pirates to trade without emotions. And now is the time to have ZERO emotions at all. Market makers are playing with emotions and the mind , prepare for heavy manipulation ahead before the next major downside move. Liquidity stress is building, and a repeat of 2008 is getting closer. I didn’t call for a correction in September 2025, I called for a major crash, and that is exactly where we are heading. I am fully prepared and there are no buy orders between 57-60k, and only short orders at 79-84k in case market allows to visit.
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$CVX: Reaching TP1 with confirmed bullflag breakout. I spoke about it a month ago and shared the buy set up. Since then it moved up 23% and there is no stop in sight, Chevron is the big winner of the Oil crisis.
💡 Microsoft cotiza en la media móvil de 200 semanas por tercera vez en una década.
Para los que entienden de análisis técnico, esto tiene un nombre: oportunidad histórica.
📊 Las dos veces anteriores que ocurrió:
🟢 Enero 2023: precio ~245$.
Japón..🇯🇵. Acabo de encontrar esta por 3750€ que es para estudiarla:
•🏖️ Condominio frente al mar en Japón por 4.000$
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•🏗️ Edificio de los años 70, pero con ubicación premium:
•A 15 min del aeropuerto en coche
•A pocos pasos de la estación y la playa
•♨️ Incluye onsen 24/7 con agua termal natural.
•🏢 Recepción con personal y zonas comunes estilo retro japonés.
•🛏️ Apartamento compacto de 1 dormitorio, literalmente al lado del mar.
•🔧 Salón y cocina renovados + aire acondicionado relativamente nuevo.
•🎣 Acceso directo a la costa rocosa (incluso posibilidad de pescar).
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En resumen: ubicación top + experiencia japonesa tradicional + precio ridículamente bajo.