The internet is dominated by radical opinions because extremes spread fast.
But real life happens in the nuanced middle.
You don't need a radical hot take to build an audience, you just need the courage to share a reasonable, balanced perspective.
Breaking: Politicians are buying Bitcoin again
Rep. David McCormick just disclosed buying ~$200K of Bitwise Bitcoin ETF $BITB
He sits on the Senate Banking Committee
And before becoming a senator, was the CEO of the largest hedge fund in the world
We now have:
1. The biggest technological boom since the internet
2. Ongoing Fed interest rate cuts into the AI boom
3. Trump's impending new Fed Chair announcement
4. $700B+ in annual technology CapEx
5. The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT)
6. Widespread deregulation initiatives by SEC
7. The most market-conscious US President ever
8. $2+ trillion in annual deficit spending
9. 13% YoY earnings growth in the S&P 500
10. The return of global fiscal stimulus
What's the bear case here?
Tesla Has Launched Its Robotaxi…Now What?
Read our latest blog for our thoughts on Tesla’s robotaxi launch and how it could scale from ~20 vehicles today to capture a significant share of what we estimate is a ~$10T opportunity…a thread
Two potential paths for Bitcoin nobody I know of has presented. Both rooted in long-term compounding math, together I estimate with greater than 80% probability of playing out.
Both paths ultimately respect the same long-term log regression the difference is whether this cycle produces one final blow-off (which comes much later in the cycle than believed) or Bitcoin is already evolving into a “steady grind” mega-asset.
Base case (60–65% probability):
Path 1 (grind within channel).
Bitcoin is transitioning from early adopter → early majority phase.
Historically, assets entering institutional adoption see dampened volatility. The emergence of ETFs and global liquidity flows suggest a “smoother curve” rather than massive blow-offs every 4 years.
If Bitcoin is truly leaving the "early speculative phase" and entering monetary adoption, this is the most likely path ahead.
There are two more paths that need to be shared for this conversation.
BREAKING: The US Congressional Budget Office says the US Treasury risks defaulting as soon as August 2025.
Default risks are rising without a debt ceiling increase, per the CBO.
The debt ceiling crisis is back.
People would do alot better if they just bought fundamentally strong assets at prices they liked, dollar cost averaged in when everyone is fearful and sit on their hands instead of predicting what turns the market around.
Sometimes the signal isn't obvious and the market just slowly crawls up. By the time some positive news hits the tape attractive prices have already left the station.
The simple buy fear and sell greed holds.
Bears outnumbered Bulls by over 40% in the latest AAII survey of Individual Investors, a level of fear that exceeds 99% of historical readings. In the past, we've never seen the crowd this bearish outside of a bear market or recession.
Video: https://t.co/yu3Pptp7ND
@AndrewYang 9+ Trillion dollars needs to be refinanced this year by the gov. Fed bank will have to engineer a hard landing to cut rates faster. It’ll happen. Just a matter of when and why.