BTC Betting Dad

degen for daycare

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

@RotoZdroik @Jumpthewave 👀

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

@adamyounggolf A3

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

@neuromancer_t I don't like the smell of that! Hope everything is okay for both parties

[Paige Spiranac @PaigeSpiranac]

I love golf. I want everyone to play and I’m excited about all the new people getting into the game. I feel that should be the attitude everyone should have if you truly love the game.

I’m so tired of hearing “shrink” and hating on this new culture of golf fans. This condescending and belittling behavior of new golfers is gross to me. You’re not better than someone else or morally superior because you’ve played longer. Golf doesn’t need to be stuffy and exclusive to preserve what we all love about the game so much. It’s about community.

Part of the growth is educating and helping new players learn. Stop gatekeeping golf

[Sounds Like Schmidt @benschmidtbtc]

Still my favourite bitcoin meme

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

@neuromancer_t Not throwing shade because I’m a holder… but isn’t SN41 about flat since launch?

[Andy Edstrom @edstromandrew]

If I have time I will write up a more fully-formed view on BTC and related situation, I will. For now, a few thoughts.

Saylor is doing what he said he would. He's creating and managing a complexifying capital structure around Bitcoin.

Because it involves leverage and various corporate and governance and other risks, it offers both (1) greater risk of loss of investment and (2) greater potential returns than just holding spot BTC exposure. Reasonable debates can be had about the risks embedded in the "digital credit" portions of the capital structure.

This "strategy" looks great in a Bitcoin bull market but scary in a bear market. Also since it involves paying cash dollars and because people get greedy and add their own leverage to its leverage, it feeds back into the dynamics of the bear market itself. It's Soros' reflexivity at play.

Also there appear to be actions behind the scenes to shore up the newest iteration of the dollar-based global monetary system. Matt Dines can tell you more about that.

And of course Warsh is "playing tough" out of the gate. Only time will reveal his actions.

Right now BTC/USD is "desperately trying" to hold above the 50-week moving average.

That involves more retesting of the same area in the low $60ks.

It's the same as the last 2 bear cycles I lived through.

In 2018 that level was $6k. In 2022 it was around $19k.

Unfortunately, history of these cycles doesn't suggest that the bottom is in yet.

In 2018 and 2022 there was a final capitulation about a year after the peak and two and a half years after the halving.

Will that happen here in 2026?

I have to say greater than 70% chance that the bottom is NOT yet in for this year. I should probably think harder about a target price. In my Feb 28 Bitcoin market update post I wrote 33% chance of 4-handle BTC (i.e. breaking below $50k). Earlier this month I offhandedly put that $50k probability at 20% in a reply tweet. But that was probably premature/optimistic. Here/now I reiterate my Feb 28 view of 33% chance that price gets below $50k.

The last two times we hit $60k, I observed that it would make sense for anyone who is currently under-allocated on BTC to buy those levels.

But the corollary is that it probably wasn't yet time to "get greedy" or "back up the truck" for anyone who already has a reasonable allocation. I haven't "backed up the truck". Maybe I'll miss the chance. That's fine for me because I have been making money in somewhat-diversified basket of other assets in the meantime.

Long-term Bitcoin DCA still makes sense to me since the same dollars buy more coins when dollar price is lower.

In bear markets hodler conviction gets tested over and over. Many are taking hard looks in the mirror. Others are dodging hard looks from their spouses. Same as it ever was. All the best to all of you.

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

@MartyBent Love that form factor. Would you mind sharing a few more details on your setup for anyone looking to replicate?

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

Gamblification of everything! Come join my Steppa challenge to bet on your 10k daily step goal: https://t.co/simFNRLVz3

[Robert ₿reedlove @Breedlove22]

Few people realize how profound of an invention #Bitcoin is. It is on the same level as fire, the wheel, or the number zero. Let me try to say it in few words:

Stealing (taxation, inflation, etc) rewards people who cause problems at the expense of people who solve problems.

Since it is hard to seize (tax) and impossible to print (inflate), Bitcoin rewards those who solve problems and inhibits people from causing problems. Since people tend to do whatever is most profitable, over time Bitcoin reorganizes the world to have more cooperative problem-solvers and less coercive problem-causers.

As a wise man once said: “no man is better than his incentives.” As an incentive system which makes cooperation disproportionately more profitable than coercion, Bitcoin makes us better men.

The profound impact of Bitcoin could take centuries to play out, as did previous profound innovations like the number zero. But change requires action. Thus, it is incumbent upon each of us to “be the change” we wish to see in the world.

As a wise man once said: “if there be trouble, let it be in my day, so that my children may know peace.”

Godspeed brothers and sisters, and good luck Being The Change (BTC) you wish to see in the world. Indeed, your deeds are the only things that can change the world.

Stay strong. Stay smart. And stay stacking.

[WallStreetBets @wallstreetbets]

https://t.co/M1xMCyfU4j

[Tennessee Golf Association @TNgolf]

It is with heavy hearts we share Aaron Ingalls has passed away.

A loving father, friend and golfer, Aaron was surrounded by loved ones in his final moments. The Tennessee Golf community mourns his passing and sends our love and support to his family.

[Susana A. Mendoza ☮️ @susanamendoza10]

This video has gone viral for all the wrong reasons. This scary incident is not an isolated incident. Fortunately, it doesn't have to be this way and can be fixed.

No parent would feel comfortable riding the CTA with their children as long as this behavior, now all too common on too many lines, continues.

Too many Chicagoans rely on public transportation to get to and from work safely and affordably. Having to tolerate incidents like this is unacceptable.

Hoping that by not making eye contact with the aggressor, you might get lucky enough to avoid getting hurt, is not a strategy for improving safety and increasing ridership on the CTA. It's also terribly unfair to working class people who can't afford safer transportation options.

We need to restore control of our trains by getting Chicago police officers back on them, starting with the worst lines.

I rode the Red Line last week, starting on 69th, and spoke with a woman who looked visibly scared. She said she no longer takes the EL because it's unsafe. Her car broke down, and after spending $150 in Uber rides over the prior 3 days, she couldn't afford another Uber ride to get back home from work so that's why she took the CTA. She took it out of desperation.

This woman needs to work. She can't afford to lose her job. She is a taxpayer. She, and all Chicagoans and visitors to our city, deserve a clean, safe and reliable transportation system.

This clearly mentally ill repeat offender, should not be on our trains, double-fisting hammers, making death threats, after already having been arrested 30 times. He needs mental health services and accountability.

Everyone else needs clean, SAFE, reliable trains. It's not too much to ask. It's a bare minimum expectation.

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

@LeadpoetAI @Iiro_V1 Poet

[Chicago Tribune Opinion @chitribopinions]

Editorial: The Chicago Teachers Union’s May 1 walkout puts politics ahead of education https://t.co/CtxG5xh73g

[Almanac @almnc_ai]

The message is clear: if you have an edge, why would you trade anywhere else?

New Almanac website is live and our awareness campaign is about to ramp up.

Check it out 👉 https://t.co/mdP144Fxhw

[BTC Betting Dad @BTCBettingDad]

@almanac_market @ArchiveExplorer @ArchiveExplorer what says you? Prove it or just talk?

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

“Without a banking intermediary”…

Stablecoins will change the world…

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

heres the real reason why regulators/banks dont want to let stablecoins pass yield-

it destroys fractional reserve banking as a system

consider the unspoken truth that "narrow banking" is practically illegal in the US. no entrants who wanted to run a 100% deposit only business has been successfully able to get a fed master account. what this really means is that the US financial system is entirely built on the backbone of credit --> "if you dont originate credit, you dont get to become a deposit institution"

take that one step further where "productive" credit can only be originated without 1:1 coverage ratio, the ultimate business of banking is always the same: maturity transformation between savers and borrowers. for this is the only way the fractional reserve system can ever exist, which means the fatal flaw of is built into the very system of yield mechanism

put simply, the idea of having a stablecoin that passes yield is by definition completely contradictory to the banking model. you obviously can't simultaneously do fractional reserve stuff and also be 1:1 "stable"

so the yield question isnt really about customer rewards and affiliate marketing, thats just convenient gaslighting. its really about the endless cycle of credit on an semi-unstable yet regulatorily captive deposit base that capitalism must perpetuate at all cost.

its always liquidity transformation: create more duration so that the day of reckoning gets forever postponed. until one day it fantastically implodes.