Grug-BTC

Just another guy here to talk BTC and Treasury companies. Most of the Treasury company chatter is pretty lowbrow - on both sides. I own MSTR, ASST and 3350.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@pete_rizzo_ I am blocking Rizzo over this fear porn. This is how an uncensored market of information must work - once someone shows you they're a liar, you need to block them. Fuck you Pete.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@PrimalBotag @0mickmack0 @ZynxBTC *sigh* I heard Dante from Simply Bitcoin say yesterday 'this is why I'm always talking about multisig'. I have literally never heard him talk about multisig. I wonder how many of those morons even understood the theoretical problem of an issue with the RNG before Saturday.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@pete_rizzo_ I barely understand this stuff, but many of you have NFI what you're talking about. This is not about hacking BTC, it's about a more powerful way to mine. If this comes on board, then miners will have to move to this method or they'll never win a block. Not really that scary.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@0mickmack0 @PrimalBotag @ZynxBTC It's beyond most people, and too many puritans have been recommending self custody to literally anyone who shows any interest in Bitcoin.

It's too easy to mess up for it to be for everyone at this stage.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

I was going to do an article on @_DannyKnowles and Parker's chat last week, then I found this helpful article from @rationalmnav which covers some of the more important points. My article will eventually follow, but knowing me it will turn into a rant on all points DAT related and be unreadable for everyone but the most interested parties.

I have huge problems with almost everyone arguing in this space - on both sides. @parkeralewis is right when he says we are mispricing the risk of MSTR - the pro MSTR guys like @AdamBLiv don't really address the risk at all. In addition, I find many of Jeff Walton's arguments disingenuous. Last week Jeff compared MSTR's price to book ratio favourably to Berkshire and Exxon because they all primarily hold assets. *sigh*

We need smart people making honest arguments that acknowledge the legitimate points of the other side, and allow the readers to make informed decisions about what is best for them. MSTR is not for everyone, but Parker (dishonestly IMO) tries to convince you that it is for no-one. He makes this argument near the bottom of the market when not only are people most fearful, but the gain they give up by selling now is at its greatest. Livingstone, on the other hand, tries to convince everyone that MSTR is a sure fire way to making you disgustingly rich. Neither are true.

Danny openly admits that he has come to the point where he doesn't understand MSTR, but he just knows he doesn't like it. He doesn't seem to draw the parallel that this is how most people feel about Bitcoin itself, and they are wrong.

[Rational mNAV @rationalmnav]

https://t.co/hKbrDx1Vsy

[Rational mNAV @rationalmnav]

https://t.co/hKbrDx1Vsy

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@parkeralewis You're saying he bought MSTR? To have more cash? How does that even work? He SOLD MSTR, to buy back some STRC.

People, Lewis just doesn't get it. Don't listen to people who let morals influence their objectivity, and then don't do the work to understand what's going on.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

You have to wonder why some people spend so much of their time hating on a stock that promotes their favourite asset, right at the bottom of the bear market.

If Lewis scares you out of a high Beta asset at the bottom of the bear, he is not your friend. It's just that now is the easiest time dor him to do that. He doesn't give a shit about you. He is running his own agenda.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@DetroitMatthewD @DavidFBailey So you're saying once someone has been damaged once, they can never be damaged again? What a great legal mind you have.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@parkeralewis You're both wrong. Livingstone treats risk like it's not important, and you pretend that there's no chance leverage and increasing sats per share can increase returns.
People, if Lewis scares you out of your MSTR position at like $100, he knows he's not doing you any favours.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@Vivek4real_ Ok. This video has nothing to do with this. What's more, even if Clarity passes, why would Trillions flow into BTC?
X is free speech, but free speech only works if we call out constant bullshit posters like Vivek. Time to block this brainless dork.

[Parker Lewis @parkeralewis]

mNAV was sold as a justified valuation multiple when in reality it was always a backwards risk skew. Money held in a levered stock wrapper was trading at a premium to money that you could hold yourself which should always trade at a discount. The market learns from past mistakes.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@parkeralewis @rationalmnav If you'd said this when MSTR was at $500 it would have aged better than posting it now. I admire your conviction, but have a long list of problems with your positions.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@PanHodl @parkeralewis They're borrowing at 12% to buy something that appreciates faster than that. The maths is clear.

Both gross oversimplifications.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@LateralLonger @rationalmnav @parkeralewis And leverage increases returns in both directions. Pretty simple.

Both are true, and I don't know which side of this wins, but after this coordinated campaign against MSTR pushing it down far further than it needed to be, I am a buyer / holder.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@Altjxcx1990 @mikealfred Yeah, without a timeframe these figures are irrelevant. Unless he means in today's dollars? We don't know how a fixed supply asset will behave price-wise as adoption accelrates. We also don't know where adoption caps out. At $1.5 mill it's still cheaper than gold's market cap.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@parkeralewis Conflating?
"You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means."
Conflating it with what exactly?

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@Avy11806063 @jasonpizzino Why are you interacting with BTC posts at all when you clearly have NFI what it is? No reason for it o go up? Jesus Christ man.

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@pcet2022 @adventuresmarv @FairAusADV Again, putting words in someone else's mouth so you can argue against them. If you could manage an honest argument, maybe you'd be worth listening to. But you can't, so you're not

[Grug-BTC @BTC_Grug]

@pcet2022 @adventuresmarv @FairAusADV I'll slow this down. The post is about Albo treating women as lesser beings. Pauline thinks that some people on long-term benefits are bludging while the rest of us pay for them. It is immaterial to her if they have a penis or not. This is NOT misogyny. See the difference?