bajie.talkshow

这里只有真实的美国行情，保持独立思考的能力.咨询行情bajietalkshow

[bajie.talkshow @BajieTalkshow]

未来12个月仍偏多，24个月进入供给兑现期，36个月中国供应冲击显著上升

我的基准路径是：

未来0—12个月
DRAM和NAND总体仍然偏紧；
合约价继续上升，但环比涨幅逐渐放缓；
HBM4、HBM4E、高容量DDR5、企业级SSD继续优于消费存储；
三星、SK海力士、Micron利润仍高，但股票不再只看利润增长，而看是否超越极高预期。
未来12—24个月
Micron台湾通霄、美国Idaho、先进封装扩产开始逐步贡献；
SK海力士M15X、龙仁及先进封装产能释放；
三星新增产线与节点转换开始增加供给；
长协的真正作用开始受到检验；
价格由“持续快速上涨”切换到“高位盘整或温和上涨”。
未来24—36个月
长鑫存储对LPDDR4X、DDR4、LPDDR5X、DDR5和中国服务器市场的影响明显增强；
全球市场可能形成“西方高端AI存储”和“中国本土通用DRAM”两套供应体系；
HBM仍有技术壁垒，但普通DDR5和移动DRAM面临价格上限；
2028年前后将成为本轮周期是否真正结构化、还是最终回归传统过剩周期的关键验证点。

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

With interest-rate futures markets pricing in a one-third chance of a Fed hike today, whatever the Fed does will be the largest "surprise" at a non-rate-cut meeting since 1997, according to Goldman Sachs.

A hike would be "the largest meeting-day surprise outside of cuts since the Fed started releasing statements to announce policy-rate changes."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The last 30 days have reminded many of a key lesson when investing.

Fear and greed are the two most powerful drivers of price action.

This an entirely mechanical move driven by excessive green in the market.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Absolutely incredible.

In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap.

Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

‼️Retail investors in South Korea have been completely DESTROYED:

Mom-and-pop investors have bought +$60 BILLION of South Korean stocks since April.

At the same time, foreign investors have dumped more than -$70 billion.

Year-to-date, investors from overseas have sold over -$110 billion of Korean stocks.

Meanwhile, the KOSPI index is down -35% so far in July, on track for its worst month EVER.

This is MIND-BLOWING.

[bajie.talkshow @BajieTalkshow]

你觉得AI足够理性吗 ？

[bajie.talkshow @BajieTalkshow]

你觉得AI足够理性吗 ？

[bajie.talkshow @BajieTalkshow]

如果我是特朗普，我会怎么选？ 美伊战争最终结局预测！ https://t.co/TZIctTOXW2

[bajie.talkshow @BajieTalkshow]

如果我是特朗普，我会怎么选？ 美伊战争最终结局预测！ https://t.co/TZIctTOXW2

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Investors are piling into US equities at a record pace:

US equity ETFs have attracted +$880 billion in inflows year-to-date, on track for their largest annual inflow on record.

This already surpasses every full-year total except the all-time high set in 2025.

Furthermore, current inflows are more than twice the levels seen at the same point in 2021 and 2025.

At this rate, annual inflows will exceed +$1.4 trillion by year-end.

This would be ~$500 billion above the 2025 record of ~$920 billion.

Investor demand for US equities is unprecedented.

[0xkevin (🖤 , 💙) @0xKevin00]

看完汗毛直立，提问和回答的水平都是超一流的

王煜全，海银资本创始人，他是一位长期研究全球科技创新的投资人，投资圈里少有的直言派和前瞻派

视频里非常敢说，2029年 AI 泡沫将破灭，2030年遍地是黄金....

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

this chart goes back to 1972 and has never printed this number

The 3-week realized vol of the momentum factor is now 4x the vol of the S&P 500. Not 1997, not 2000, not 2008, not the 2021 unwind. Never.

Translation: the index is quiet while the stocks inside it swing like it's a crisis. Winners get dumped, losers get squeezed, and the rotation eats momentum traders alive.

When maximum churn meets minimum index movement, someone is handing over a lot of shares. Distribution rarely announces itself louder than this.

[IvanaSPEAR @IvanaSpear]

The scariest chart on Wall Street isn't saying what people think it is.

The Morgan Stanley Tech Momentum Index just printed a 17-day rate of change of -35.9% — the worst reading in its 27-year history.

Most investors are reading this as the AI trade breaking.

I see a factor unwind, not a fundamental one.

Momentum is one of the most successful investment factors ever discovered. Decades of research have shown that stocks with the strongest price trends tend to keep outperforming.

That's why it has become the foundation of countless quantitative strategies.

When everyone owns the same baskets, it doesn't take much: a quarter-end rebalance, thin summer liquidity, or a headline taken the wrong way for everyone to rush through the same exit.

This time, we had all of the above, on top of one of the strongest momentum runs in years.

The problem isn't momentum.

The problem is that too much capital is now chasing the same momentum signals.

But factor investing is very different from fundamental investing.

For fundamental investors, these periods often create the best opportunities because the edge isn't in owning the broad theme. It's in understanding what each company actually does within the value chain.

During times like this, we revisit every part of our coverage universe and ask a simple question:

What's actually getting stronger?

- Cheaper AI models may pressure AI lab economics, but they also drive higher adoption, more inference, and ultimately more hardware demand.

- More memory capacity may eventually normalize memory pricing, but every new wafer requires billions of dollars of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

- AI spending isn't ending; it's broadening. Leadership is rotating from one part of the value chain to the next.

The market is confusing forced selling with deteriorating fundamentals.

Those are two very different things.

Link in comments for the latest Tech Edge that includes a primer on quant vs. fundamental investing.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.

My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.

In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.

I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:

- “AI is a bubble”
- “memory/kospi is a bubble”
- “photonics is a bubble”
- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”
- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”

And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.

But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.

And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.

I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.

Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.

Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

[Bean哥 @BroBean88]

推特上都在喊存储完了。
管了几百亿的但斌把自己的钱全押进去了。你信谁？

看到但斌今天发了条消息，三个判断一个动作。

1、存储调整接近阶段性底部
2、AI 长期需求逻辑没动摇
3、不认为 AI 方向会出系统性风险。

然后，自有资金已全部加入东方港湾基金跟投。判断谁都能说，把自己的钱全压进去的，分量不一样。

他还说了一句，"不加杠杆，有持续利润增长的公司，能穿越眼下这个阶段。"

这句话我这半年讲了无数遍，今天被一个管了几百亿的人用同样的方式再说了一遍。

你去看这一轮谁在亏钱。那个女博主 21 万做到 220 万，回撤到今天亏了 108 万，她方向没错一直拿的存储，亏在下跌时把正股换成了两倍做多还加了融资。

香港那只两倍做多海力士 ETF 干到 150 亿美元全球第一，追英伟达特斯拉的杠杆产品都没超过 100 亿，这 150 亿背后全是散户在赌短期涨幅。

这种筹码结构一旦转向就是绞肉机，前阵子韩股一个月熔断三次根子就在这。

有悟性的兄弟估计能看到了，所有亏钱的故事拆开看就一个共同特征，加了杠杆。

但斌那句话翻译过来就是，你只要不加杠杆，拿着一个利润真的在增长的公司，30% 的回撤杀不死你。

美光 Q3 毛利率 85%，海力士 Q1 营业利润率 72%，这些数字这一周一个都没变过。变的只是股价和情绪。

我的持仓标的之前分享过，这一周一股没动。基本面没坏，杠杆不碰，时间站在我这边。

推特上那些喊"存储完了"的声音，你去翻翻他们的历史推文，大部分人三个月前还在喊"存储永远涨"。一个方向三个月就能喊两个极端的人，他的判断你敢信？

一个管了几百亿、穿越过三轮大崩盘的人，今天把自己的钱全押进去了。推特上从没穿越过任何周期的博主，今天在喊你赶紧跑。

你信谁。

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨SPACEX'S BONDS ARE THE REAL STORY, NOT ITS SHARE PRICE:

A $100 million allocation in SpaceX's 2056 bonds is now worth just ~$90.7 million, a loss of -9.3% in under a month since the $25 billion offering priced.

More than two-thirds of that loss came from investors demanding a bigger risk premium specifically for SpaceX, not from the general decline in bond prices.

The $SPCX bond's credit spread, the extra yield paid over Treasuries to compensate for risk, has widened from +175bps at pricing to +231bps now.

This makes SpaceX's 2056 bond the worst-performing BBB-rated US dollar bond among 1,450 benchmark issues with at least $1 billion in face value.

Meanwhile, $SPCX stock has fallen -38% from its post-IPO peak and now trades below its $135 IPO price, while the bonds themselves yield a junk-like 7.5%.

After a wave of massive corporate debt issuance, investors are demanding higher yields and are no longer willing to finance every large deal at tight spreads.

US corporate credit market stress is surging.

[Investing visuals @InvestingVisual]

The future is on sale!

Semi's drawdown from their 52-week highs:
• $SKHY -42%
• $ARM -42%
• $MRVL -41%
• $SNDK -39%
• $ALAB -35%
• $COHR -35%
• $LITE -34%
• $INTC -32%
• $MU -30%
• $AMD -15%

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

The scariest chart on Wall Street right now is actually one of the best buying signals in years (Save this).

The Morgan Stanley Tech Momentum Index just hit a 17 day rate of change of -35.9%, the worst reading in the index's entire 27 year history.

The Goldman Sachs High-Beta Momentum Index is down -24% month-to date, the worst performance since April 2009.

Before you panic, you need to understand what these numbers actually measure because this is not the AI buildout collapsing but rather a momentum factor unwind and those are two very different things.

A momentum strategy is simple, buy whatever has gone up the most, short whatever has gone down the most and in H1 2026, that strategy returned a historic 57% because AI stocks went nearly straight up.

When a trade gets that crowded, Goldman tracked momentum positioning at the 100th percentile of the last five years, it gets fragile.

One trigger causes every fund running the same playbook to sell at the same time and you get a cascade that has nothing to do with the actual businesses underneath.

The triggers here were textbook, low holiday week liquidity, end of quarter rebalancing, profit taking after a record first half and a widely misread headline about Meta and data center capacity.

The fundamental view remains positive and while JPMorgan said buy the dip and UBS called it an orderly de-risking exercise, not a forced liquidation.

The data that actually matters hasn't moved.

Hyperscalers are still guiding to $1.4 trillion in capex by 2028, a number Morgan Stanley just raised 9-10% for 2027 and 2028.

Micron's entire HBM4 supply for 2026 is already sold out under long-term contracts, Nebius has $12 billion locked in from Meta and $17.4 billion from Microsoft.

None of those contracts changed because a momentum index printed -35%.

Goldman's own historical data shows that momentum selloffs of this magnitude since 2006 were followed by average gains of 1.45% the following week and nearly 23% over the next year.

The worst momentum reading in 27 years sounds terrifying but what it actually means is that the trade got too crowded after a historic run and now it's flushing out the weakest hands.

The only question left is simple, are you buying from the weak hands or are you one of them?

The biggest opportunities are often created by the biggest overreactions and make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more.

[Inty News @__Inty__]

惨痛！昨天！

一名游客在黄石国家公园被一头雄性野牛抛到空中，身受重伤

[AI Will @FinanceYF5]

有团队把小学阶段孩子该学的全部内容，做成了一张开源的知识图谱。

规模是1590个概念、3221条连接，覆盖数学、科学、计算机、生活技能等8个学科，逐条对齐美国NGSS、Common Core和英国DfE的课程标准。🧵