Ballin' Capital

[Lin @Speculator_io]

The 7 Layers of Photonics

1. Materials & Wafers: $AXTI $TECK $IQE $LWLG $SOI $WOLF
2. Tools: $AIXA $ALRIB $VECO $LRCX $AMAT $SHMN $ONTO
3. Lasers: $SIVE $MTSI $HIMX $STM $LASR
4. Foundries: $TSEM $FN $XFAB $SANM $UMC $GFS
5. Testing: $AEHR $FORM $COHU $TER $VIAV $ASX $AMKR
6. Optics: $LITE $COHR $POET $MEMS $AAOI $OPTX $LPTH
7. Networking: $CRDO $MRVL $SMTC $CIEN $NOK $GLW $ALAB $ANET $AVGO

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

Stocks to profit from the upcoming plague pandemic:

$EVO has a DoD program developing monoclonal antibodies against Yersinia pestis
$SNY Owns former Dynavax plague-vaccine, rF1V vaccine with CpG 1018 is being developed with DoD
$TMO sells a TaqMan Yersinia pestis detection kit

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@BenjaminNorton The mass murder of brown people is the only bipartisan issue in the so called civilized west.

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@TheFiveGym Won't she be suspended for missing doping tests?

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@LauraLoomer WTF is wrong with your face? Holy moses you're ugly.

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@StealthQE4 Nope, it's Trump's never ending losing war. Yield was 4% before the war and came down during the MOU.

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@AmyMcGrathKY You need to force yourself to read the whole thing to understand the gravity of the US' situation. I am not American and I wept for your country and the rest of the world. This psychopath is willing to kill hundreds of millions of people to protect his ego.

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@jukan05 What about $SNDK, is it going to zero?

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@zerohedge Jane Street and $TLT are driving the 10Y yield, not the reverse. Reason why is the 10Y pumps and dumps right after the stockmarket and options open, not before. Volumes and flows on $TLT also prove it is Jane Street doing their options slam scam on $TLT to profit from OTM options

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@cturnbull1968 You need to listen to George Conway explain how Trump operates. His actions are entirely driven by hate, anger, revenge & stupidity He doesn't think. Of course Paxton was a disaster. But Trump wanted to destroy Cornyn, he never thought it meant losing TX. Mindset of a rapist.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $LITE, $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE.

Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials:

- Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone)

- Potential restrictions would likely keep laser market tight (combining US DSPs + lasers could meet the 65% US value threshold per MS)

- Chinese modules could qualify if 65% of bill of materials is US content. Chinese modules using US DSPs and lasers are already near that level

- Analysts expect the positive impact on laser pricing... to be more important than any broad redistribution of transceiver market share.

- Analysts don't expect this to bottleneck hyperscaler AI buildouts, they name InP substrate supply as the key variable to watch (hello $AXTI )

TLDR:

Component suppliers in general are really positive. Like $SMTC probably winner here for TIAs/drivers (I don't think this was listed), maybe $MXL for DSPs too.

$AAOI another large beneficiary.

$SIVE is high-key alpha for laser beneficaries since they have "tremendous capacity" coming online, and that points to US foundries (they haven't formally disclosed location).

Since previous slideshows show 2 US foundries 1 Taiwan foundry (Win Semi) in terms of their capacity partnerships. And it's process of elimination.

From CIOE Channel checks it does look like they're starting to work with Chinese pluggable players, (so they'd avenues moving forward as US supply chain component beneficiaries).

Of course $LITE / $COHR would be happy.

TLDR: Western supply chains for Lasers / DSPs / TIAs / others are already bottlenecked but qualified capacity becomes even more important.

[Bill Madden @maddenifico]

Chief Justice John Roberts Shunned by His Neighbors as Backlash Over Pro-Fascist, Cruel, and Sadistic Trump Rulings Grows

Chief Justice John Roberts is being frozen out on the Maine island where he has summered for more than 20 years. Neighbors who once shared lobster dinners with him now keep their distance, skip gatherings, or show up to protest his rulings.

The break tracks the court's 2022 barbaric decision overturning Roe v. Wade and Roberts' 2024 opinion granting Donald Trump the same kind of broad immunity from prosecution that other authoritarian tyrants enjoy. Kayakers hold signs a few hundred yards from his house. "Roberts Benched the Constitution" appears on local roads. On Monhegan Island, people who recognized him chanted that he should be ashamed.

Longtime friends have pulled back. Members of a local cigar club skipped this summer's gatherings so they would not have to sit with Roberts and his wife. "It's harder for him to feel comfortable approaching people — and vice versa," said Mary Anne Mason, a former law partner.

His security detail has grown. He used to linger on the dock after church; on protest days he stays away. Wendy Schlotterbeck, a longtime neighbor, said she wanted to ask him directly: "Do you realize what your decisions are doing to my family and my community?"

A recent Gallup poll put the fascist-friendly Roberts Supreme Court's approval at a record low of 33% — which is still 33% higher than it should be.

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@kaitlancollins Kaitlin, this is the most demented interview I have ever read. You are not doing it justice with your snippets.

The part on the Kennedy Center is batshit insane. How the hell is this lunatic still president of the US?

[Dr. Abdul El-Sayed @AbdulElSayed]

Tomorrow, on October 1, the biggest transfer of wealth from the working class to the wealthy hits a critical milestone. Many of the provisions from the Big Ugly Bill will go into effect, harming hundreds of thousands of Michiganders in order to create tax cuts for the richest people in America.

To name some of the worst...
✖️Medicaid and SNAP have been cut to deliver $4.5 trillion in tax cuts primarily for billionaires and corporations.

✖️Michigan is set to lose $2-3 billion annually in federal Medicaid and SNAP funding.

✖️The changes in this bill will eliminate tens of thousands of energy and manufacturing jobs in Michigan due to lost investment.

✖️Michigan hospitals will lose $6 billion in Medicaid payments by 2036.

✖️Over 200K Michiganders are set to lose healthcare.

✖️211,000 Michigan households will suffer from SNAP cuts. Nearly 121,000 Michiganders have already lost their SNAP benefits.

✖️Energy bills across Michigan will go up by a total of $8.7 billion by 2034.

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@__Con_ Gov yields are too high and rising too fast

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@Erin_Molan Oh look another dumb bimbo carrying water for a disgusting pedophile and war criminal. Iran won the war and the US economy is collapsing at breakneck speed, you airhead. No-one believes a word of your spin, besides the last remaining MAGAtards.

[Ballin' Capital @BallinCapital]

@TW_trades_ You mean the energy stock or the shitcoin?

[Green Lark @green_lark]

Factor ETFs naturally cluster into 6 groups:
A big value cloud from small to large cap, two momentum groups and a quality cluster.
Some funds are in between clusters, for example VAMO has value+momentum+a defensive trend overlay, which worked well in 2022.
Overall, the value style seems really overrepresented.
There is room for more quality and momentum ETFs.