Perpetual Beta

Markets, double standards and easy answers.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@KrinschTM @Matrix_B0SS But delusion is the whole pitch, Sir

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

If you are scrolling your phone while at the urinal - you’ve got a problem, sorry.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

Such a US thing seeing and hearing the UFC/boxing announcer dude shout start the world cup final

[Charly Wargnier @DataChaz]

Anthropic with every industry:

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@seonu63038896 @StormDirac

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

Love listening to these datacenters in space calls where you can finally in good spirit say things like ”back here on earth” and it’s simultaneously a jab but also just correct in light of the conversation at hand.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

”Then, people forget that since $SIVE was discovered on FinTwit, the price went up 500%, and even with the 60% drop from its highs

We still have vastly better YTD returns than any of the comparable companies”

Because every bought at start of the year, and totally not near peak!

[Sancet @Million_Sancet]

In case anyone is wondering why $SIVE is down on a day with good CPI data and photonics rising

Well, the bears attribute this to $SIVE being a bad company that doesn't justify its rise

First, let's start by naming names like $AAOI and taking them out of the equation

Since they've individually had good company news, the momentum isn't comparable

On the other hand, $COHR $LITE etc, are indeed comparable, but there is a slight difference that people forget

All the companies people compare $SIVE with are companies that have been breaking record revenues for several quarters

They have market caps 5x, 10x, 20x, 50x the size of $SIVE

People forget that positioning yourself in $SIVE means positioning yourself in a pre-revenue company until mass production starts around 2027

Positioning yourself ahead of the curve often feels like lagging behind it, where on good days we rise less and on bad days we fall more

There is a lot of volatility precisely because of that, because we are here before any revenue justifies a steady, moderate rise

Then, people forget that since $SIVE was discovered on FinTwit, the price went up 500%, and even with the 60% drop from its highs

We still have vastly better YTD returns than any of the comparable companies

And finally, there is a psychological factor

While insiders, including the CEO, haven't stopped buying shares of $SIVE, doubts still linger among the most skeptical

In no time, the lock-up period will lift, which would give insiders the right to sell if they wanted to

Something that, IMO, is not going to happen

But those doubts remain, and that's why I think the retail buy button, in general, is pressed at half throttle

Meanwhile, IMO, institutions have slammed it all the way down, but that's a whole other topic

People need to understand that positioning yourself in $SIVE means positioning yourself to potentially get 50x returns in the long term

But in the short term, it means watching everyone else rise while you don't

Watching everyone else drop a little while you plunge

Watching how a simple article moves the stock price so much, even though the fundamentals remain intact

But mark my words, this won't last long, and in the long run, $SIVE is a generational play

Patience will make you rich

Long on $SIVE

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@NoCapCapital5 @OnodaCapital 100% my take away. Stocks not the only thing he pumps

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

So $sive pushes the Q2/26 reporting date forward, from Aug 6 to Aug 27. Under EU MAR regulation, insiders are in blackout for 30 days before reporting. This would have applied if reported on Aug 6. But now after it's pushed to Aug 27. What does management/board do? Go buy stock.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

”Most people looked at this table and saw what it said. I saw what my baggy mind needed me to see.”

[revoAIution @revoAIution]

Morgan Stanley just published institutional CPO research mapping every major upcoming project to their FAU vendors.

Most people looked at this table and saw FOCI, Senko and Teramount.

I looked at it and saw $SIVE hiding in plain sight one layer above every single one of them.

Here is why that is such a big deal.

$SIVE does not make the fiber connectors. They make the laser that creates the light that feeds into every single one of those connectors. You cannot have a working CPO system without both.

Every project in this table needs a laser. And $SIVE is the confirmed laser supplier sitting one layer upstream of almost every vendor listed.

This table just mapped out the entire CPO ecosystem. And $SIVE is at the foundation of it.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

$sive bulls are all pretending to be bears so wholly that they are dumping the stock. Just for the experiment of course!! Otherwise everyone as bullish as ever and in fact buying stock (adjusted for the selling being done by all)

[Askara @softmaxedx]

$SIVE bulls, I have an idea.
Let's all become bears for some time.
If our bear thesis is bad enough, maybe people will start buying instead.
Thoughts?

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

NGL surprised by some of these soccer takes from people who are usually on point on. Shows for a lot of people corruption is a tool and how you respond to it comes down to how the tool is used. For example if you use corruption to reverse an incorrect soccer call, it’s fine. 🤷‍♂️

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@michael_rigoni @asianinvestors Michael is so patient he is on X pumping the stock every 30 minutes with another AI generated slop about how there was a new mega-catalyst.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

I have to admit $sive is really delivering on one area of growth - shares outstanding. Consistent, robust increase in the stock volume line. That’s bullish!

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@Million_Sancet ”You're telling me that institutions are going to fight tooth and nail to buy $SIVE at 57 SEK”

These ”institutions” like the day trader everyone was hyping? Yeah he dumping.

[Cura @h79sharesunder]

Just had a great tip on DM, which shows how awful Sivers is..
Sivers were supposed to report H1 on 6th of aug. I always thought that was odd as Lockups expires on 9th of Aug. But this week we learned that Sivers execs can´t count (or understand the deals they have signed) as they believed the lockup expired 16th of July. So what does this panicked management/board team do when they realize they must release their poor numbers before they are able to offload their positions, well they move the H1 date to end of August, after their Lockups has expired.. And even if they sell at the fake lockup date, they can do so ahead of the 30 day closed period, just. @EkonomiRobban

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

I have to admit $sive is really delivering on one area of growth - shares outstanding. Consistent, robust increase in the stock volume line. That’s bullish!

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@aleabitoreddit @CFc19971622 Problem is the Revenue Pipeline is a made up number. Revenue Pipedream, not backlog. Which is why there is a gigantic gap between that number and the actual PnL. "Revenue Pipeline" is up 189% from Q4/24 while revenues are up 18%, with growth coming from wireless, not photonics.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@kapo52277 @Cped221267 @aleabitoreddit Ok lol fair enough

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@kapo52277 @Cped221267 @aleabitoreddit If you think the answer is "yes", go use your LLM of choice to check what they actually do and don't do. Given it sounds like normal reasoning is not enough here.

[Perpetual Beta @BananaPrinciple]

@kapo52277 @Cped221267 @aleabitoreddit So Jane Street, which is not a massive holder by the way, they are doing what exactly? Entertaining this pipedream, Swedish flagging notification is 5%, so the theoretical cap for their "massive holding" is 16m. You think Jane Street owns 16m of a stock that trades 20m a day?