Ray Meyer

JP Morgan Investment Banking Alum. Libertarian. Sound Money Advocate. Avid Sailor. Think about Rome every day.

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@MikeZaccardi adjusted for inflation? 🤣

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart Thanks for having Ed Dowd on again! I think he is right!

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart heh heh.... no, not yet... but look at yields today and oil today... and this: https://t.co/eHfdPbnChg

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart heh heh.... no, not yet... but look at yields today and oil today... and this: https://t.co/eHfdPbnChg

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@NickTimiraos No, he will be remembered for manipulating rates lower to help Biden get re-elected...

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart @kevinolearytv Hell the fraud is bailing them out NOW!

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@colbyLsmith bullcrap...... his tenure includes the Biden years: cumulative 4 year 25% reduction in value of $...

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@MikeZaccardi 45 years of investing under my belt... never seen anything like these markets...

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart @m3_melody You are doing great work Adam!

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@biancoresearch some ships are turning the ais off and on as well.

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@MikeZaccardi bought a leap xhb put out to '28 few weeks ago... very volatile but fun... pin money

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@MikeZaccardi wow...

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@JackFarley96 Its Cali thats broken

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart Beautiful!

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@JackFarley96 ha ha........ brilliant!

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart Another great interview: Eric Basmajian... Here he explains why we all got the recession calls wrong two years ago... https://t.co/78hMbGccJd

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

https://t.co/yd0FgvvK8N

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@adamtaggart Ed would be a great interview!!

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

https://t.co/yd0FgvvK8N

[Ray Meyer @BankerBob333]

@fleckcap @KobeissiLetter https://t.co/b6aUeUdNOy

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy:

"We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."