Barometer Trading's Founder @feeley_bill is building Equity Long/Short Excellence for wealth accumulation and preservation. We periodically post market comments or specific ideas. You're invited to follow. Not advice.
Case closed: Nearly EVERYTHING Government touches becomes a worse product at and a higher cost and less availability than private solutions! Hey, but the Communist & Socialist Central planner Dumocrats think they will change history....NOT!
This chart is insane.
Government-heavy sectors (healthcare, college, childcare) exploded in price... and got worse.
Competitive free market sectors (TVs, toys, phones, software) crashed in price... and got dramatically better.
2/2 $OKLO reports earnings (loss) tonight after the close and I find the announcement of 2 Gov't milestones this morning to represent hype that might serve to cushion a report of a massive loss. We have re-shorted the stock in anticipation of weak #'s & more hype. Not advice.
1/2 On October 13, 2025, $OKLO at $175ish we shorted the stock. We identified below $60 as a targret based upon what we belived were over-hyped timelines for delivery of proposed timelines and consultations with a friend who had run a traditional nuclear plant for many years.
I'm inclined to think that since equities bounced after the FBI..etc...expressed concern about Iranian missle attacks on the west coast, that the muscle memory of yesterday's sharp rip higher is influencing investors and traders this afternoon? My guess is yes.
@SenSchumer Disgusting for anyone to write, but particularly for a Jewish legislator, you are a piece of **** and get ready to get eaten alive by a dipshit bartender because you have no spine.
That' right Chuckles the clown. Good! They never belonged on the rolls. Voting is exclusively a right of a U.S. Citizen; unless you are a cheating Democrat - so get the clown suit out of your closet @SenSchumer .
1/2 FWIW, Some account of size is getting hammered today. multiple sell programs of size in $SPY at (:411 AM, 10:52 AM, Continuation at 11:09 AM and took a breather at 11:30 AM only to return at 11:43 AM12:38 PM 1:13 PM and then another breather. Margin calls go out at 2:00 PM.
🚨🚨 Multiple whistleblowers in Minnesota have told lawmakers that they believe the total amount of Somali-related fraud is $8 billion, not $1 billion.
Meaning: Ilhan Omar committed ballot fraud and the g’ddamn Somali is currently sitting in the U.S. Congress as a result of that fraud.
@Mr_Derivatives About 60 to 90 days before the sales cycle for late 2027 and early 2028 deliveries starts to stretch out; price cutting, add ons, and margin compression will follow, and it will be fierce. The market will all of a sudden be oversupplied almost overnight. 2/ 3rds P/E contraction.
US Senator Maggie Goodlander caught Smurfing $15,222,358.00 along with her Treasurers Jim Callahan Melissa Nissen, details below.
She is married to Hillary Clinton's fixer Jake Sullivan.
@RepGoodlander is one of the ringleaders of the Sedition Six, admitted she is under investigation by the DOJ for her seditious words against our military, country and @realDonaldTrump
"...Goodlander is one of the most dangerous Deep State villains. She is the leader of the Seditious Six. Her wedding to Hillary Clinton’s top aide, Jake Sullivan, was attended by the Clintons, future CIA Director Bill Burns, Tony Blinken, Merrick Garland, and others.
Goodlander worked with Norm Eisen to devise the first mpeachment of President Trump in 2019. In 2021, Goodlander became a top advisor to Attorney General Merrick Garland and “oversaw” the Durham investigation into oblivion.
I worked with the Durham Inquiry and I know that they were investigating Hillary Clinton, Jake Sullivan (Goodlander’s husband), CIA operative Stefan Halper, British intelligence operative Christopher Steele and others.
I suggest that the DoJ investigates Goodlander’s conduct for the last 10 years, and specifically her role in the Trump impeachment and in interfering with the Durham investigation." from @RealSLokhova
Political Committee C00878454, MAGGIE FOR CONGRESS has accepted 3,255 Smurfed
donor transactions totaling $848,835 from 1,588 unique Smurfing donors. That these transactions
encompass 30.2% of the 10,787 available committee transactions and also being 19.1% of the $4,455,106
full committee transaction valuation.
Political Committee C00588772, MAGGIE FOR NH has accepted 130,509 Smurfed donor transactions totaling $13,324,595 from 13,379 unique Smurfing donors. That these transactions encompass 65.5% of the 199,113 available committee transactions and also being 36.5% of the $36,540,783 full committee transaction valuation.
Political Committee C00762963, MAGGIE HASSAN VICTORY FUND has accepted 468 Smurfed donor transactions totaling $1,048,928 from 266 unique Smurfing donors. That these transactions
encompass 47.9% of the 978 available committee transactions and also being 44% of the $2,384,752 full
committee transaction valuation. @AAGDhillon@EagleEdMartin@JudgeJeanine@USAttyPirro@drawandstrike@MaggieG603@FBIDirectorKash@TeamTrump47@MikeBales@amuse@SaltyGoat17@libsoftiktok @TonySegrua @SteveLovesAmmo@ImFiredUp2@FEC - oh wait, the FEC is in on Smurfing for federal politicians helping them cover up money laundering!
Barometer is short CZR, FDX, HOOD, OKLO, PLTR, & SMH but sadly covered our short in $AAPL too soon, but seriously, what the heck is tha narative on AAPL. It has been dropping like a rock!
THE RECKONING
Wall Street’s oldest warning system just triggered.
The Shiller PE ratio crossed 40.16 this week.
In 154 years of recorded market history, this threshold has been breached only three times. The first was December 1999. The second was November 2021. The third is now.
What followed the first: a 49% collapse.
What followed the second: a 25% drawdown within ten months.
What follows the third: you are living it.
Consider what 40 means. The market now trades at 2.3 times its 154 year average valuation. Stocks have been cheaper than today 98.9% of all recorded history. The only comparable moments preceded the two most devastating corrections of the modern era.
The mathematics are unforgiving. Vanguard’s century long analysis confirms a 0.43 correlation between current CAPE and decade forward returns. At 40, the implied annual real return through 2035 falls to 1.6%. Not negative. Not catastrophic. Simply… exhausted.
But here is what the headlines miss: CAPE does not predict crashes. It predicts gravity. The difference between a 49% collapse in 2000 and a 25% correction in 2022 was not valuation. It was the catalyst.
The catalyst today remains unknown. Trade policy. Credit contraction. Earnings disappointment. Geopolitical rupture. Any spark finds abundant fuel.
What this means for you: Recalibrate expectations. A decade of 10% returns is mathematically improbable from current levels. Diversification is not caution. It is arithmetic.
The market is not broken. It is priced for perfection in an imperfect world.
History does not repeat. But it rhymes in numbers that do not lie.
The clock at 40 has started.
It appears to me that Zelenskyy just blinked and that we may have entered a phase towards a wind-down in the Russia-Ukranine war. Bullish for saving lives, equities and debt and likely bearish for energy? https://t.co/zv0CT6ekzX
$OKLO so the insanely high fever has broken and I will be happily adding to my March 20, 2026 175 Puts which I don't plan to sell until the stock is under $60 if it gets there by then.
@DavidSacks I've never met @DavidSacks but have enormous respect for him and his work. I do know and like and respect @jason but disagree with him on this matter.
4/3 (bonus post). Model in Hataf's long, thoughtful bearish post today. It is a great read. A former NRC commissioner has reportedly scoffed at the timeline. I'm surprised that Lathan & Watkins let this 10-Q be published. Not advice, measure positions by the high expected vol.
3/3 said there is "no way they could even get close to those dates"! Insider selling, soft 'agreements', inevitable construction delays, equity dilution and an uncompromising NRC makes $OKLO a great short. Target down 75%. Also thanks to @hataf_capital 's Talha Quraishi for DCF