Becky Smith Kettner

I'm happiest when helping others plan their financial future and solve problems. Finance nerd. Advisor. Lucky wife. Proud mama. Posts are my own - not advice.

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

@MrAndyNgo So appreciate your longtime reporting of the organized far-left rioters who have destroyed Portland. Not all parts are dangerous but it’s so lawless compared to just 25 years ago. I used to love this city - literally my home away from home. Now I’m weary of going downtown.

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

The market constantly changes but some maxims remain. As Ben writes, speculation is as old as time. Trying to predict the best/worst performers in any given year is nearly impossible. See the performance quilt. Here’s to being diversified and staying invested when markets change.

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

One of my favorite stock market charts

Investors are more diversified than ever these days but so are the owners of the stock market

This is a good thing

https://t.co/E9CQTU2ub1

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Always a bull market somewhere...

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

Bruce Greenwald invited Li Lu to speak to his class on value investing.

The result is a 90 minute masterclass on how to be a value investor.

If you haven't watched the video, do it now.

If you have, it's worth re-watching.

Here is a list of my favorite quotes from Li Lu 👇

PERSONALITY OF A VALUE INVESTOR

• "Understand who you are as an investor, because you will be tested. You will have to ask yourself if you truly are a value investor."

• "Value investing goes against our evolution of following the crowds to survive."

• "You will spend most of your time as an investigative journalist. To have insatiable curiosity."

• "You almost have to be curious about everything. Because you never know where you'll get that one major insight."

INVESTOR CRITERIA

• Is it cheap?

• Is it a good business?

• Why is this opportunity available to me?

"Once you answer those questions, you really have to go for it."

INVESTMENT CASE STUDY 1: TIMBERLAND

• "The first thing I check in a company is it's valuation."

• "If you're an investor you don't care where it traded before."

• "What matters isn't the price-to-book ratio itself, but what's in the book value."

• "You want to compare the capital invested in the business to how much pre-tax cash flow the business generates using that capital."

• "So Timberland generated $100M on $200M in capital invested. So why does the opportunity exist?"

- Nike, Reebok, all the shoe brands fell off a cliff during the Asian Financial Crisis.

- Founder owns 40% of the stock

- Company was profitable and didn't need financial markets (no sell-side)

- Tons of shareholder lawsuits

• "What would be your conclusion if you were a normal mutual fund hearing this information? That management is milking the company for their own gain."

What does Li Lu do next?

• "I download every file of the shareholder court cases. That's the investigative journalist part."

• "The result was that the founder withdrew guidance and shareholders didn't like it. That was it."

How do you determine if management are decent people?

• "You've got to be an investigative journalist and find the trail of evidence. Go to their community. Introduce yourself to their friends/family/neighbors."

Total Time Commitment: "A couple of weeks of diligent/obsessive work"

• "Investing is intensive work for short bursts of time."

HOW MUCH TO BUY?

• "If you go join a fund, they'll tell you not to risk anything more than 25-50bps."

• "Think about how much effort you put in to this work. You have no downside and its trading at 5x profits."

• "So, I put a shitload of money into Timberland. Over the next 10 years it went up 7x. It was never more than 15x earnings."

• "If you're not a good analyst, you'll NEVER be a good investor."

• "When it goes up, you don't have to do a damn thing. You just sit on it and ride with it."

INVESTMENT CASE STUDY 2: KOREAN COMPANY

• "Don't think about per-share numbers. Think of yourself as an owner."

• "$236M in book value, $60M market cap, $25M net earnings."

How do you know it's cheap?

• "You must confirm that the earnings are there, and that the book value is real, liquid, and tangible."

• "They're trading at the cash value in the bank with no debt. They have hotels and department stores that they own outright. They're making $30M+ in pre-tax earnings. And insiders own 50%."

The result: Went up 5-6x

VALUE INVESTING IS NOT NATURAL

• "There's a lot of money in value investing. But it's still unnatural to most people."

• "One thing you have to do, is you have to do the work. You have to do the reps. You can make a ton of money if you really do this stuff."

• "I benefited by listening AND THEN DOING my own work. Making my own investments and mistakes."

WHAT MAKES A GREAT ANALYST

• "You must provide accurate and complete information. If you can't succeed on that, you can't succeed in this business."

• "If you're not confident about your prediction and what you know, you can't put any money when the stock's in free fall."

WHAT PROVIDES THE BIGGEST RETURNS

• "Your biggest returns will come from no more than ten tremendous insights. That's it."

• "The only way to build those insights is intense curiosity, intense study."

INVESTING MISTAKES

• "The biggest mistakes come when you buy before you've done all the work."

• "My biggest mistakes aren't buying and losing money. It's not buying and missing out on 50-60x returns."

HOW MANY COMPANIES SHOULD YOU BUY

• "I don't have any set rules on how many stocks or companies I buy. Opportunities are sporadic and it depends on the environment."

• "I usually have 3-4 big ideas. If the market is exciting, I have more opportunities. Or if the market is boring, I have fewer."

HOW LI LU ALLOCATES TIME

• "Most of the time I spend reading and studying about everything. Learning new companies and industries."

• "If I find an idea that captivates me. I stop everything and obsess over that idea."

• "Besides that, I spend a lot of time with my kid and my wife."

TL;DR:

• Be an investigative journalist.

• Work obsessively in short bursts and spend the rest. of your time learning.

• When you've done the work and have conviction, buy a shitload to make it worth it.

• Before you invest $1, make sure you can answer the three big questions: Is it cheap, is the management team good, and why does the opportunity exist.

• Never stop learning.

• Become a curiosity machine.

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

New home sales data from August are unexpectedly higher. This additional context is helpful especially when one considers the YoY decrease in sales nationally. #newhomesales #detailsmatter #interestrates

[Robert Dietz @dietz_econ]

More details on new home sales in Aug. The temporary Aug uptick is a reminder of the degree to which interest rate changes are driving current housing conditions. Sales are down 14% on a year-to-date basis with additional declines ahead as rates increase: https://t.co/9QoKFCZ2t4

[Ndamukong Suh @NdamukongSuh]

What is happening.

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

So excited to be part of the group from Baker Boyer Bank to present Financial Empowerment for Women at the Tri-City Regional Chamber of Commerce Women in Business Confernce. #TCWIB22 #womeninbusiness #financialempowerment

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

Happy 4th of July!
“My father described this tall lady who stands in the middle of the New York harbor, holding high a torch to welcome people seeking freedom in America. I instantly fell in love.” —Yakov Smirnoff, Ukrainian American comedian

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

Mind blowing appearance by @sammyhagar at Cabo Wabo. #workhardplayhard #vacation #cabosanlucas #Mexico #CaboWabo

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

It's Earth Day. This year’s focus is on investing in our planet to build healthy cities, countries, and economies. Did you know you can invest in the planet and yourself with ESG investing strategies? #EarthDay #DoGood #Investing #ESG https://t.co/iMJO4NVCTy

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

Today is a once-in-a-lifetime date. "When you write it, 2/22/22, it's a palindrome, meaning it reads the same forward and backward. It also falls on a Tuesday, which is now referred to as Twosday," according to CNN. #celebrate #twosday #numbersnerd https://t.co/pALOLK5cqP

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

Thank you @CliffordAsness for making me laugh today. My Twitter feed is a better place because of you! #ValueInvesting #FridayFunny

[Clifford Asness @CliffordAsness]

All the starts are aligning!

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

@SahilBloom Thank you for the ideas you’ve shared. I’ve subscribed to your newsletter and podcast. Have your written a book? #lifelonglearning #insights #lifechangingideas #TheFeynmanTechnique

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

Invest a few minutes to read these ideas. They’re insightful and inspiring. If actually applied they can be life changing, too. Thread by @SahilBloom on Thread Reader App https://t.co/5QW6FI26qd

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

“The willingness to accept responsibility for one's own life is the source from which self-respect springs.”
— Joan Didion

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

Sadly, this is funny because it’s true.

[Drew Dickson @AlbertBridgeCap]

Breaking news:

“THE 7 CHANNELS YOU USED TO WATCH IN YOUR OVERPRICED CABLE PACKAGE ARE NOW 7 STREAMING SERVICES THAT COST EVEN MORE.”

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

You know you have work on your mind when you see “CFP” while watching the @UoDuckFootball play and think it means Certified Financial Planner not College Football Playoff 😝 #CollegeFootball #CFP @CFBPlayoff #financialplanning #strategyonandoffthefield #mustplaytowin

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

This is absolutely true! When I focus on serving others I feel more content, satisfied, and fulfilled. How do you shift your focus? How does it change your feelings?

[Shane Parrish @shaneparrish]

Your focus determines your feelings.

Change your focus to change your feelings.

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

@SonyaDreizler Don't let the naysayers get you down. If you're doing the right thing for the right reasons you'll outlast the critics. When you get tired, rest - don't give up!
Totally agree with @Brooke415 @KeithAkre and others on this thread. Great advice!

[Becky Smith Kettner @BeckySmith]

Inflation got you down? Here’s a way to save on holiday gifts this year. Follow me for more money-saving tips. #finance #money #tips #financialfreedom #investing #success #humor