Want to know where bond returns are headed?
Just look at today’s yield.
Over the last 50 years, the correlation between starting yields and forward 7-year returns is 97%.
Higher yields = higher future returns.
Lower yields = lower future returns.
Bond investing is just math.
American households age 65–74 have over 10x the net worth of those under 35. The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' just added a $6,000 bonus standard deduction—exclusively for taxpayers 65 and older. Is that really where the help is most needed?
Wow. If you net out the Mag 7 from the S&P 500, the remaining 493 stocks have barely gone anywhere in over a decade (comparatively speaking).
Chart: Goldman Sachs
When the iPhone factory in Gary, Indiana has no nitro cold brew on tap, no ping pong tables, no catered lunches, and won’t let you work from home on Fridays
I’ll keep on saying it for the people in the back. DOGE had the right idea. Reduce spending enough to slow down the economy. A slower economy means interest rates come down and if things slow enough, the fed reduces rates to juice the economy and debt repayment gets far cheaper and the debt comes down with any growth
Where DOGE screwed up is that they tried to do it all at once under the excuse the Dems would kill it. Cutting spending and firing hundreds of thousands all at once has a disproportionate impact on small cities and states. That makes it’s far far harder for interest rates to enable growth
If they had planned it out, gave the country a chance to plan and get ready for the cuts , then it truly could have worked. And worked well enough they could have cut more than they did. And with the lower rates , the deficit could have been reduced with lower debt interest costs
Add to this all these tariffs , simultaneously, and someone is going to get fired. Probably Lutnick.
Unless Trump shows up in the week or two after the tariff hits and gives us a removal of the tariffs , or even an across the board 10 pct tariffs , that at least is less inflationary.
Less inflationary means at least a little better chance the fed can lower rates.
As long as those tariffs are in place , and active , it’s going to be hard for inflation to come down and for employment to stay up
That’s the fed mandate. Employment and inflation.
Read Fire Aim is no way to govern. If there’s a plan. Show it to us