BeneGesseritVoice

Top 0.01% Prediction Market Trader

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@GaetenD Ah.. to be young again.

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@DjPolyKek 🐐

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@aenews @RobertCahaly @trafalgar_group @DarlineGrahamSC @RalphNorman how dare you

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@catboyautist No matter how hard I try, I always screw up the MoV trades

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@NotYetBankrupt The formulas of psychohistory are never wrong!

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@Euanker @netflix Monitor tan ftw!

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@BFawkes22 @BetMGM @grok is it true that Connor McGregor is illiterate?

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@meepie @Betwick1 @Euanker @mombil @PredictFolio Note to self: keep losing

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

Good advice tbh

[50 Pence @polyint]

Real crisis of confidence @Polymarket . Firing head of markets and flipping a .96c market on the same day is something only they could pull off.
I would not recommend anyone bet on any contestable markets for several months.

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@itskkoma @stoolpresidente @Polymarket @PolymarketSport @barstoolsports It’s ok Barron got most of it

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

OK, I can live with this, but just don't tell me that the FIFA Peace Prize is also rigged.

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@devjoshstevens why don’t you run this on @PredictFolio instead? It actually does the correct math for splits and merges and it’s not like it’s expensive. Since nothing is working right anyway it can’t hurt to try. @meepie

[Josh @devjoshstevens]

@0x8483 @mustafap0ly @williamlegate This is a goldsky issue, they are aware and are fixing this - our in-house indexer is being tested on staging and rolling out soon, which fixes all of these inconsistencies

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

Let’s go!! I miss the headphone jack but the Sanctions Silver model is 🔥

[redstonepm @redstonepm]

Introducing the Apple iPeace. It’s a ceasefire, a nuclear deal, and a Strait of Hormuz reopening device. Are you getting it? These are not three separate products.

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@CalltoActivism Obesity will do that to you

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

Pratt Summer is CANCELLED! SAD! Thank you for your attention to this matter! President BGV

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@elonmusk does Iran war help fix this?

[TFTC @TFTC21]

US interest expense on public debt just crossed $1.27 trillion over the last 12 months. It took 73 years to 109x that number from 1947 to 2019. It has more than doubled in the six years since.

The 30-year treasury just cleared 5% for the first time since 2007. Japan's 20-year bond hit its highest yield since 1997. This isn't an isolated move. This is a global repricing of sovereign debt risk happening in real time.

The doom loop is simple: higher rates mean higher interest expense, which means more borrowing, which means more supply, which pushes rates higher. At this pace, interest on the debt will surpass Social Security as the largest line item in the federal budget. The US government will spend more servicing past borrowing than on the retirement safety net for 70 million Americans.

Global money supply just crossed $121.9 trillion, up $17.1 trillion in two years, growing at 7-8% annually. Central banks are trapped between inflation that won't die and debt loads that require low rates to service. Cut rates and you pour gasoline on the inflation fire. Hold or hike and the interest expense spiral accelerates. There is no clean exit.

The inflation side is getting worse. Electricity prices up 50% in five years. PPI leading CPI higher. Data center construction at $50 billion annualized, up 437% since 2021, now exceeding office construction. The Informationist's CPI overlay tracks the 1970s pattern with a 0.93 correlation. April 2026 CPI sits at 3.78%, right at the inflection point where inflation re-accelerated before peaking near 14%. The Fed declared victory prematurely then, too.

Meanwhile the S&P 500 just set a record for the most components hitting new 52-week lows on a day the index poked above its prior all-time closing high. The six-week rally is the biggest since QE1, concentrated in a handful of AI and infrastructure names. The index is a mask. Underneath it, the average company is deteriorating.

Twenty-one million against all of it.

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@shayne_coplan did you give Drake a poly badge for this? 👀

[Noah Zingler-Sternig @Nostroah]

A @shayne_coplan mention on a Drake album was not on my bingo card.

Insane motion.

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@MrOziPM I heard that 💀

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

Further, the rules require “clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period”. We have that.

[BeneGesseritVoice @BeneGesseritPM]

@CarOnPolymarket has this right. Resolving this market to no would be a scam. I can’t imagine a way that anyone can argue that US and Iran are not currently in a ceasefire. @bosaurum

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

Sadly, there's a problem with Middle East markets on Polymarket.

As we all know, the US x Iran ceasefire was extended.

Yet on Polymarket, the odds are sitting at just 6%.

Why?

I wish I had the answer. But I don’t. Why is it sometimes so difficult to resolve a market that seems so abundantly clear?

Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire on April 21, and the odds jumped from 20% to 95%.

But now, a day later, we're at 6%, even though there's clearly a ceasefire in effect RIGHT NOW.

The market deadline is in a few hours. At that point, it could theoretically resolve to "No", unless someone pays $1,500 to dispute the resolution.

Trump has a public appearance tomorrow, he will 100% say the ceasefire was extended and is in effect right now. Meanwhile, the Polymarket would have been resolved to NO by that time.

I wish Polymarket aligned with reality more often in Middle East markets. The Middle East is complex, but that shouldn't make clear resolutions this difficult. I made about 800K in Middle East markets, which puts me in the top 20, i have traded hundreds of them, but one thing I really hate is that sadly, markets very clearly resolve against reality too often in the Middle East category.

I'm a big fan of Middle East markets. It's a region that really interests me, but whenever a market like this is on the brink of a wrong resolution, it takes the fun out of it.

We're betting on peace here. We have peace. Yet people are arguing there is no peace. Why? Because they're lying to make a quick buck. This happens too often on Polymarket.

The idea of Polymarket providing answers about real-world events is amazing. But in this case, it's clearly not working.

That said, the market isn't over yet. It will likely be disputed and reviewed by UMA or clarified by Polymarket.

I still have hope it will resolve correctly even though it should've already 12 hours ago.