Jager

Stoked about reality, interested in the future.

Prediction market trading with @CarstenPredicts. Hari Seldon on Discord/Kalshi. Glass artist

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

Yeah this argument between Silver and Jesse just spiraled into "no u" imo. Lots of people can be smart doing different smart things and be accurate and profitable market influencers or participants!

[Gaeten Dugas @GaetenD]

Nate Silver doubts that one of the best election forecasters in the world is a profitable trader. Guys like @PoliticalKiwi ,@iabvek @nonsenseking , @tehspeleeng , @carnitastaco , and @LanceupperPI are my heroes when it comes to election modeling.

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

@bernardbulletin Congratulations! Well deserved

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

@bananafish_bets this is true!

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

Vance and Trump being really candid about the election was not on my bingo card but pretty cool nonetheless!

[JD Vance @JDVance]

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

@bananafish_bets I think it's wraps for big dawg. Hard to imagine he woul even want to run in 2028?

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

JAMES TALARICO in his victory speech: "the real fight in this country is top vs bottom"

[clementine @clementineultra]

Biden refusing to drop out as part of his master plan to create a 2026 blue wave and guaranteed decade of congressional control

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

This is one possible explanation of performance tonight

[Kristi Noem @KristiNoem]

Larry Kudlow is correct. We were too successful the first year of the Trump administration.

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

The entire PM sharps community tonight

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

HEARD NOW ON FOX: "House control is still up in the air"

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

The hex cast on Ken Paxton is working. Occultists W witch hunters in shambles

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

Hearing reports an occultist on Halloween cast a hex on Ken Paxton's campaign. Talarico bags pumping.

Is this a new form of quant?

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

@cbhief Hedging is for cowards

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

Current downside / upside for the election today. If it's a red wave I might have to retire. I think about 20% of the time I lose $200k, and most of the time I make like $60k. Losing over $500k is a <3% tail risk I think

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

big walls on Paxton No!

[Joe @JoePostingg]

Dan Sullivan: My voters are too stupid to know what incumbent means, it should be illegal to be named Dan Sullivan .

Lisa Murkowski: Spell my name bitch. It's M-U-R-K-O-W-S-K-I.

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

@cbhief No, in that scenario I lose around 200k. I only have 220k dem house which will only yield around +20k

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

@io1ka Custom, spun it up with claude in about an hour

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

But who did John Pork vote for

[State of New York @NYGov]

go vote. polls are open until 9PM.

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

@bernardbulletin Did they give you 12 ballots too?

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

It is 1:40 pm ET and I just had my first sip of water. Anyone else feeling the election day nerves?

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

There is no barrier between reality TV and the world

[Jager @NotYetBankrupt]

Spencer Pratt's wife Heidi Montag is in the Kalshi comments section for the LA mayoral race pumping her Raman position. Unsure if this is a BUY signal or SELL signal. What do you think?