jrap

dad, degen, debtor. mit nerd getting rinsed by high school seniors on prediction markets.

[jrap @jonrapaport]

tldr: claude is a whale, kalshi has no rules, i got past-posted on trade 1

3 things i learned in week 1 of rfq making on kalshi

→ your v1 will suck. i got past-posted on my first fill.
→ tickers are inconsistent. for the phillips/jourdain MMA fight saturday night, kalshi had valid tickers for JOU-PHI and PHI-JOU. ah yes, the ever elusive r-squared = 1 correlation play. good for you.
→ claude is a whale. claude is a degenerate. claude does not value your money and it will cost you way more than the $200 max subscription in EV if you let claude mind your storefront. know your data better than your ai.

h/t @goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj and their excellent podcast

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@DjSterlingC delete alpha

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@AgustinLebron3 You want it to be one way. But it's the other way.

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@TheFlowHorse meanwhile, i applied the same principle to prediction markets to make $3.7k last month

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj what's your take on fee structure for managing outside capital on PMs? just closed my first investor.

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@catboyautist cooking is GTO

[jrap @jonrapaport]

shut out != shutout

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@goldenpants013 CAPE VERDE

[jrap @jonrapaport]

Due to US Gov order and until further notice:
I am not available.

[Alex @ajak1033]

The Spurs know how to TAKE the lead, they just don't know how to HOLD the lead. And that's really the most important part of the lead: the holding

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@catboyautist @Jelitics best nba game i’ve ever seen

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@thesamparr "adjusted EBITDA = bullshit earnings" - charlie munger

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@Hrundel75 He's beginning to believe.

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@antpalkin bravo.

a true masterclass in overengineering a dashboard.

genuinely impressed, its hard to do it that well.

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@catboyautist @Kalshi thank you sweetheart

[jrap @jonrapaport]

May Prediction Markets Recap:

Over the past 30 days I have used my math and coding skills from MIT and my finance skills from Goldman Sachs to lose $2,900 on @Kalshi Mentions.

Mentions Sharps who rinsed me include:
- high school children
- youtubers*
- retired casino and food service employees**

Had a winning month in sports/politics by picking off:
- SIG
- @kylekuzma

AI cost via Claude:
- $200 via Max Subscription + $100 API fast mode
- $2,000 via market linking error when i fired orders for 5,000 contracts at 99 cents on the wrong event (skill issue)

As JFK once said: "we choose to trade Prediction Markets in this decade, not because they are easy, but because they are hard."

*including @PredMTrader and @locksy
**including @Foster and @catboyautist

[jrap @jonrapaport]

Trade on @Kalshi where we have 1 cent spreads!

the slippage king @mattkalish would have a field day

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@peanut_bettor @Sports__Proj @goldenpants013 sharp takers prefer sparkling water

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@radarmentions @PredMTrader you on this market?

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@SamTinnerholm kalshi?

[jrap @jonrapaport]

@PredMTrader my priors below. weight appropriately.