Ben Gruber

Policy Studies Alum @MaxwellSU. Thomas Sowell Enthusiast

[The Bush Archive @TheBushArchive]

George W. Bush summer

[alexlindsay @alexlindsay]

If you want to understand American optimism…

We celebrate the date that we declared independence, not the date that we achieved it.

[NEW YORK KNICKS @nyknicks]

THE GREATEST COMEBACK IN NBA PLAYOFF HISTORY.

[LakeShowYo @LakeShowYo]

Knicks fans are insane 😭😭😭

“My Mayor is Muslim, my bagel is Jewish, my Christian’s Dior… Knicks in 4!!!”

[Blake Scholl 🛫 @bscholl]

Trolley problem, California high speed rail edition

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Shyam Sankar is trying to mobilize a country.

The CTO of Palantir is ringing the alarm on the necessity to resurrect America’s industrial base, win the defense technology race against other countries, and empower workers across the nation without buying into the fears of AI doomerism.

In this interview, we sat down to discuss his latest book, why he felt now was the right time to release it, and the message he hopes to communicate to the world.

Thank you to Shyam @ssankar for taking the time!

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro
01:02 - How Shyam got to Palantir
02:19 - Palantir's Journey over the years
07:40 - Why is now the time to mobilize
09:40 - Hardware vs Software
14:57 - The Youth and Communism
20:15 - US vs China
22:24 - AI Doomerism
26:21 - Palantir's impact on how Shyam thinks of AI
29:12 - CEOs on the AI doomer case vs optimistic case
34:50 - Rapid Fire

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

Claude can't slice a 300 yard drive straight into the woods.

I will never be fully replaced.

[Shyam Sankar @ssankar]

The revolutions that matter are tool-driven, not concept-driven. The telescope, the microscope, the power loom, the computer—each one's meaning was determined not by its inventors but by its wielders.

The doomers want AI to be a concept-driven revolution—something to theorize about in safety labs and regulate into paralysis. We know it is a tool-driven revolution. And the American worker with AI in hand will discover new things to be explained.

AI is neither apocalypse nor salvation. It is a tool—and like every great tool in American history, from the cotton gin to the assembly line to the personal computer, its meaning will be determined not by those who build it in labs but by those who wield it in the field.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Hey @NYCMayor - I responded to your tweet yesterday with a few constructive suggestions as you enter office.

It looks like you hid the reply after it got substantial support.

Hopefully I am wrong about that, but multiple people have confirmed they can no longer see the reply.

You ran your campaign on transparency and working for the people of New York. It doesn't seem transparent or helpful to hide the replies of residents who are engaging in conversation with you.

Here is the screenshot so everyone can see what I said.

[Tony @0xRacist]

This is why the stock trades at 400x earnings

[Ben Gruber @BenjaminBhg]

Control what you can control.

[Jared Kubin @JaredKubin]

Everyone's sharing that "Long Degeneracy" article and nominating it for article of the year with 20m views. I just got around to reading it…overall, I get it. It's well written, emotionally resonant, and captures something real about generational anxiety. I like the author, I subscribe to their stuff… talented Quant.

But nobody's pushing back, so let me while I watch my kids at the pool.

My main pushback is this: the article is a suicide note dressed up as investment advice. I REFUSE to hand my agency to "the house." The moment you accept "the game is rigged so I might as well gamble," you've surrendered. You've quit on the process that actually works because someone convinced you it doesn't. There are no easy buttons. No shortcuts. No magic money options. There is only learning, sacrifice, and continual grit.

It tells a generation they're prisoners. Then it sells them a lottery ticket and calls it freedom. Then it tells YOU to invest in the prison.

That's not analysis. That's despair with a ticker symbol.

The author spends 2000 words empathizing with young people as "prisoners" trapped by a broken economy… then tells you to invest in the platforms extracting fees from their desperation. "Long Coinbase, long DraftKings, long the casinos."

Read that again. The thesis is: a generation is so economically desperate they're turning to gambling, most will lose, and YOU should profit by owning the house.

You can't weep for the prisoners and then sell shares in the prison. Pick one.

4 points I want to make....

Pushback 1: "Closed" is doing a lot of work
The claim that traditional wealth building is "closed, not difficult" is asserted, not proven. The boomer vs millennial wealth stat is misleading… it compares 65 year olds to 35 year olds. Of course boomers hold more wealth. They've been alive longer.

Housing is brutal in coastal cities. But median home prices in most US metros are still accessible to dual income households. "Wages up 8% while housing doubled" has no timeframe and cherry picks the comparison. Real wages post 2020 have actually grown.

Is it harder than it was? Yes. Is the game "fundamentally broken"? That's a much bigger claim requiring a much longer discussion.

Pushback 2: Negative EV doesn't become rational just because you feel stuck

The core logical move is: "if you're trapped anyway, a 5% chance of escape beats 100% certainty of stagnation."
But gambling doesn't leave you "still stuck." It makes most participants actively worse off. That 5% moonshot comes paired with a 95% chance of losing your savings, your rent money, your runway.

The author admits "most people lose" then hand waves it because gamblers "understand the odds." But understanding bad odds while taking them isn't rationality. It's emotional capitulation wearing economic language as a costume.
This isn't a generation finding a path out. It's a wealth transfer mechanism moving money FROM desperate young people TO platform operators.

Pushback 3: The article accidentally reveals the real problem

The author admits social media has "repositioned the zeroth line" so people earning $150k feel poor. Admits the algorithm ensures "you never feel like you've arrived." Admits basic needs are met and there's "cognitive bandwidth" for existential questions.

But wait. If the problem is FEELING trapped due to infinite upward comparison rather than BEING trapped… gambling doesn't fix that. You could 10x your net worth and the algorithm will still show you someone richer.

The "Maslow trap" section accidentally confesses: this generation isn't imprisoned. They're dissatisfied. These are different problems.

Pushback 4: I don’t have enough FAITH to live in a world without God

This is the part nobody wants to hear.

The entire thesis rests on a materialist assumption: your life's meaning is determined by your net worth, your house, your access to experiences. If you can't get those things, you're "imprisoned." If you can, you're "free."

That's spiritual poverty masquerading as economic analysis.
Jesus said it plain: "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?" The author's answer is apparently "at least you beat the algorithm."

My BIGGEST problem with the article isn't economic. It's theological. It assumes the highest human need is "self actualization" through financial success. That Maslow's hierarchy is the truth about human nature. That if you can't afford the vacation and the house, you're missing what makes life worth living.

That's not wisdom. That's the prosperity gospel without the gospel. No thanks.

The reason this generation feels trapped isn't because housing costs went up. It's because they've been handed a worldview where meaning comes from consumption, identity comes from status, and hope is a betting slip. When you build your life on that foundation, of course you feel imprisoned. The cell is interior.

Real freedom isn't financial. It never was. The peace that passes understanding doesn't require a Polymarket account. Eternity is a LONG time.

So what's the alternative?

First: Exit the comparison machine. The author correctly identifies social media as manufacturing infinite dissatisfaction. The answer isn't to gamble your way to a moving target. It's to stop letting an algorithm define your "zeroth line." Your reference class should be your actual life, not curated highlights from 8 billion people. Delete the apps. Touch grass. Go to church. Give yourself to something BIGGER than your net worth.

Second: Skill acquisition still compounds. The article mocks "getting better at your job" as boomer advice. But the same young people pouring hours into memecoin research could pour those hours into skills that compound. The difference is skills don't have a house edge. Coding, sales, writing, trades… these translate into income whether the market is up or down. AI is changing which skills matter but it's not eliminating the returns to expertise. It's concentrating them.

Third: Asymmetric bets exist outside casinos. If you want convexity, build something. Start a business. Create content. Ship a product. The difference between entrepreneurship and gambling is you're building equity in something that can compound, not burning capital on negative EV.

Fourth: Anchor your identity somewhere the market can't touch. If your sense of self rises and falls with your portfolio, you're a slave. If your hope depends on a moonshot, you have no hope. The man who knows who he is in Christ doesn't need a 100x to feel like his life matters. He's already free. That's not copium. That's the only foundation that doesn't move.

The real trap

The article's framing is seductive because it offers absolution. You're not making bad decisions. You're rationally responding to a broken system. The house always wins but at least you're playing.

The framing IS the trap.

The economy is harder than it was. Housing costs are real. AI anxiety is real. But "harder" isn't "impossible," and the author's solution… becoming a customer of fee extracting platforms or an investor in them… doesn't help the people he claims to sympathize with.

It helps the house.

Here's what actually works.
-Wake up early. Get after it. Be Relentless.
-Spend less than you earn. No excuses.
-Acquire skills that compound. Every single day. Stack them.
-Build things you own. Equity, not lottery tickets.
-Get your body right. Discipline starts physical.
-Get your soul right with the Lord. My closeness with the Lord has grown MORE in trials and tribulations than any fancy car.
-Exit the comparison machine. The algorithm is not your friend. It's your enemy.
-Find your people. Real ones. In person. Build a family. Build a group you trust.
-Serve something bigger than yourself.
-Pray. Not as a last resort. As a first principle. Daily.
-The path is painful. The path is boring. The path requires years of work that nobody will clap for.

But it's the path that works.

The casinos will keep taking their vig. The gurus will keep selling hope. The algorithms will keep showing you what you don't have.

Let them.
You are not a prisoner. You are not a degenerate. You are not a customer.

You are a free human being with a soul that matters and a life to build.

So build it through active faith, aggressive patience, and a mindset geared towards eternity and not your bank account.

[Blake Scholl 🛫 @bscholl]

I have a good idea: let’s take more money away from the people who create things like Google, Facebook, Stripe, Tesla…

… and give that money to the people who spent $18b on a “high speed” railroad without any tracks.

This is morally wrong and ends poorly for everyone.

[Steve Guest @SteveGuest]

MUST READ from the WSJ: “Something is profoundly wrong with the U.S. welfare system—a problem that runs far deeper and is more dangerous than the shocking fraud in Minnesota that has been making headlines… real federal welfare spending has soared by 765%, more than twice as fast as total federal spending, and now costs $1.4 trillion annually. Were that money simply doled out evenly to the 19.8 million families the government defines as poor, each household would receive more than $70,000 a year.”

[Ben Gruber @BenjaminBhg]

@RobinhoodApp @BarnaPeterfi

[Under Secretary of State Jacob S. Helberg @UnderSecE]

The new National Security Strategy of the United States:

"As Alexander Hamilton argued in our republic’s earliest days, the United States must never be dependent on any outside power for core components—from raw materials to parts to finished products— necessary to the nation’s defense or economy. ...The future belongs to makers.”

Read the full strategy.👇
https://t.co/gutx3aX2cs

[Morning Brew ☕️ @MorningBrew]

50-year mortgages
Bitcoin under $95,000
Burry betting against AI
Worst Oct. layoffs in 20 years
Jobs and inflation data missing
S&P on pace for worst Nov. since '08

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Here is Peter Thiel’s email to Zuck and Andreessen in Jan-2020 predicting socialism.

Tl;dr too much student debt and lack of affordable housing keeps young people with negative capital for too long. And without a stake in the capitalist system, they will turn against it.

[Daniel Di Martino @DanielDiMartino]

The big story of the 2025 New York Mayoral election is age polarization.

81% of women under 30 voted for Mamdani.

Just 32-33% of over 65 years old did.

[Vivek Ramaswamy @VivekGRamaswamy]

Bring down costs. End identity politics.

[Ben Gruber @BenjaminBhg]

Outward migration of those who can afford to leave NYS is why Mamdani won and Cuomo lost.

NYC is heading down a dark path. Scary times for those who will stay.