Benjamin Bjerre

Focused on Tech, Investing, Leadership & Growth.

CEO & Portfolio Manager @TechwaveInvest

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The Korean export data for the first 10 days of the month came in extremely strong this morning, at 85.9% year-on-year versus 43.7% in May.

And you are telling me that AI demand is not accelerating?

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won believes the memory shortage could continue until 2030, with SK Hynix planning to double its memory wafer capacity over the next five years to help meet demand.

$MU $NVDA $AMD

[Benjamin Bjerre @BenjaminBjerre]

@AndreasSteno Det har været to hårde dage, sandt

[루팡 @DrNHJ]

엔비디아 SOCAMM2의 메모리 용량별 물량 조정 계획

$NVDA, $MU, SK hynix, Samsung

전체 물량은 +10~20% 수준으로 증가

(메리츠)

[Benjamin Bjerre @BenjaminBjerre]

With Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink Fusion, $SIVE now appears tied to the entire NVLink CPO ecosystem through Celestial AI, Lightmatter and Ayar.

The more supply chain pieces fall into place, the more Sivers looks like a structural laser bottleneck rather than a component supplier.

[Jukan @jukan05]

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won: SK hynix will double its memory production capacity within the next five years.

[Ren @renstocks_]

Holy mother of InP lasers.

Rosenblatt just dropped an InP supply and demand model today and the numbers are staggering.

NVIDIA asked the supply chain to scale InP laser capacity by 20x from 2025 to 2030. The vendors pushed back and agreed to 12x. Even the conservative scenario has Datacom supply still 50% behind demand exiting 2030 after a 12x increase.

12x supply increase over five years. Still not enough.

Rosenblatt explicitly calls it a non-cyclical growth industry well past 2030. The InP supply chain is structurally short for the rest of the decade.

Here is what the revenue buildout looks like by supplier across 2025 to 2030:

$LITE -- $600M in 2025 to $9B by 2030. The dominant player scaling fastest including a new InP fab acquisition in Greensboro NC converting in 2028, adding $2.5B in 2028 and $5B in 2029.

$AAOI -- $60M to $2.1B. The high-torque play. Rosenblatt sees it growing from under 5% to nearly 10% transceiver market share and entering the ultra-high-power CW laser market for CPO. Smallest base, biggest percentage runway.

$SIVE -- sits alongside as the pure-play InP laser specialist and external light source for CPO -- the chokepoint Rosenblatt's entire supply model is built around. DFB laser supply confirmed tight through Q3 2027.

$AVGO -- $550M to $4.5B. Second largest by revenue. Strong but less pure-play InP than LITE.

$COHR -- $125M to $4.3B. Rosenblatt's top near-term pick. Expects revenue acceleration and gross margin expansion from 6-inch wafer production driving 800G and 1.6T transceiver sales.

VIAV -- $53 stock, called out specifically for underappreciated bottlenecks in OCS and CPO test expertise and capacity.

Total InP Datacom market: $1.9B in 2025 to $22.75B by 2030. Nearly 12x.

Flags from the report.

$CIEN -- Rosenblatt is cautious. Side GM expectations have gotten too high and do not factor in price increases from LITE and COHR as suppliers.

$CRDO -- viewed as a niche player, not strongly relevant to the CPO optical supply chain. Expects 1.6T AECs to be weaker than the market expects.

If CPO scale-up slips beyond the current 2H27 build window, 2028 becomes a buying opportunity rather than a revenue year. Wafer supply, test and measurement, DSP, PIC, and laser capacity are all identified as potential chokepoints.

But the direction is not in question. NVIDIA is the demand signal and NVIDIA asked for 20x. The supply chain is building for 12x. The gap between those two numbers is the entire trade.

$LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE for the InP laser supply chain.

$IQE $AXTI $SOI for the InP epi and substrate layer underneath them.

$SOI for SiPh substrate.

Bullish Photonics

[Sean @sean_________]

Rosenblatt InP lasers checks:
According to our checks, NVIDIA, which is the driving force behind scale up CPO, asked the supply chain to increase InP laser capacity by ~20x from 2025-2030. The vendors appear to have taken a more conservative stance, agreeing to an ~12x increase ( $AAOI / $LITE etc)

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

Inside the 800VDC Revolution – Part 1
Four-Phase 800VDC Transition,
Power Rack Economics, SST,
Equipment Content/MW Build,
Supplier Implications

https://t.co/zVsiXtNldk

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$NVDA (Nvidia) #earnings are out:

[Jukan @jukan05]

I think the customer Tower Semi secured this time is NVIDIA.

[FUNDA @FundaAI]

SNDK is being systematically re-rated due to LTAs. The market is starting to discuss that once LTAs exceed 50% of the mix, the stock can no longer be viewed as a cyclical. You'll probably recall the LTA Report we published—the first in-depth LTA Report in the market, which laid out the argument for why this LTA cycle is different from previous ones. $SNDK $MU

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$SNDK CRUSHED THEIR Q3 EARNINGS

• Revenue $5.95B vs Est. $4.73B
• EPS $23.41 vs Est. $14.66
• Operating Income $4.2B vs Est. $2.7B

Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $8.1B vs Est. $6.6B
• EPS $31.50 vs Est. $23.44

[MarketNewsFeed @MarketNews_Feed]

$AMZN | AMAZON Q1 26 EARNINGS:

• NET SALES: $181.52B (EST $177.23B)
• OPER INCOME: $23.85B (EST $20.75B)
• EPS: $2.78 (EST $1.62)
• SEES Q2 NET SALES: $194.0B TO $199.0B (EST $189.15B)
• SEES Q2 OPER INCOME: $20.0B TO $24.0B (EST $22.86B) ...

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$GOOGL | Alphabet Q1’26 Earnings Highlights

🔹 EPS: $5.11 (Est. $2.62-$2.73) 🟢; UP +82% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $109.896B (Est. $106.6B-$107.0B) 🟢; UP +22% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $39.696B (EBIT Est. $36.3B) 🟢; UP +30% YoY
🔹 Google Cloud Revenue: $20.028B (Est. ~$18B) 🟢; UP +63% YoY
🔹 Google Search & Other Growth: +19% YoY (Est. +16%) 🟢
🔹 YouTube Ads Growth: +11% YoY (Est. +11.7%) 🔴

Google Services:
🔹 Revenue: $89.637B; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $40.589B
🔹 Google Advertising Revenue: $77.253B (Est. ~$76B) 🟢
🔹 Google Search & Other: $60.399B; UP +19% YoY
🔹 YouTube Ads: $9.883B; UP +11% YoY
🔹 Google Network: $6.971B
🔹 Subscriptions, Platforms & Devices: $12.384B; UP +19% YoY

Google Cloud:
🔹 Revenue: $20.028B (Est. ~$18B) 🟢; UP +63% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $6.598B
🔹 Backlog: over $460B

Other Bets:
🔹 Revenue: $411M
🔹 Operating Loss: -$2.100B
🔹 Waymo: surpassed 500,000 fully autonomous rides/week

Alphabet-Level Activities:
🔹 Operating Loss: -$5.391B
🔹 Alphabet-level activities primarily reflect expenses related to shared AI research and development

Other Metrics:
🔹 Total TAC: $15.228B
🔹 Employees: 194,668
🔹 Paid Subscriptions: 350M
🔹 Gemini Enterprise: paid MAUs UP +40% QoQ
🔹 Gemini API Usage: more than 16B tokens/minute; UP +60% QoQ
🔹 Hedging Losses: -$180M
🔹 U.S. Revenue: $53.975B; UP +23% YoY
🔹 EMEA Revenue: $31.468B; UP +21% YoY
🔹 APAC Revenue: $18.288B; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Other Americas Revenue: $6.345B; UP +21% YoY

Financials:
🔹 Operating Margin: 36.1%; expanded by 2 percentage points
🔹 Net Income: $62.578B; UP +81% YoY
🔹 Other Income, Net: $37.716B
🔹 Gain on Equity Securities, Net: $36.915B
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $45.790B
🔹 CapEx: $35.674B
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $10.116B
🔹 TTM Free Cash Flow: $64.429B
🔹 Cash & Marketable Securities: $126.840B
🔹 Long-Term Debt: $77.501B

Capital Return:
🔹 Dividend: $0.22/share; UP +5% from prior $0.21/share
🔹 Dividend Payable: June 15, 2026
🔹 Stock Repurchases: $0

CEO Sundar Pichai Commentary:
🔸 “2026 is off to a terrific start.”
🔸 “Our AI investments and full stack approach are lighting up every part of the business.”
🔸 “Search had a strong quarter with AI experiences driving usage, queries at an all time high, and 19% revenue growth.”
🔸 “Google Cloud revenues grew 63% with backlog nearly doubling quarter on quarter to over $460 billion.”
🔸 “This was our strongest quarter ever for our consumer AI plans, driven by the Gemini App.”
🔸 “Overall the number of paid subscriptions has now reached 350 million, with YouTube and Google One being the key drivers.”
🔸 “Gemini Enterprise has great momentum with 40% quarter on quarter growth in paid monthly active users.”
🔸 “Waymo surpass 500,000 fully autonomous rides a week.”
🔸 “Our first-party models, like Gemini, are now processing more than 16 billion tokens per minute via direct API use by our customers, up 60% from last quarter.”

[Kaushik @WisemanCap]

$MSFT PT Raised to $593 at HSBC

We believe Microsoft's CoPilot Cowork could prove to be a catalyst for Microsoft's tepid CoPilot efforts as Microsoft partners with Anthropic to offer Microsoft branded Cowork agent capabilities within its office suite.

Microsoft has long standing ties with enterprises and Microsoft Office sits at the center of knowledge work, representing a key position to expand upon

[Kaushik @WisemanCap]

$MSFT Q3 Azure and Cloud Services Revenue growth 40%

Q3 EPS $4.27, Est $4.05
Revenue $82.9B, Est $81.29B

Microsoft Q3 intelligent cloud revenue $34.7B
Microsoft Q3 productivity & business processes revenue $35B
Microsoft Q3 more personal computing revenue $13.2B

[Benjamin Bjerre @BenjaminBjerre]

@GaryMarcus Guardrails….

[Benjamin Bjerre @BenjaminBjerre]

@dagensaktiedk @TechwaveInvest Tak Søren ☺️ Det betyder meget, især når det kommer fra en garvet investor som dig.

[Benjamin Bjerre @BenjaminBjerre]

Jeg var et smut forbi Millionærklubben i torsdags og tale om AI-udbygningen, og hvordan vi i @TechwaveInvest positionerer os i værdikæden.

Du kan se og høre afsnittet her:
https://t.co/U7hSoRrJQA