Microsoft, the third largest Tech stock in the S&P 500, is down by 26.5% in the first half of 2026. If that held here, it would be the worst semi-annual performance since the second half of 2008
Small caps (the S&P 600) closed at their highest level in history today.
Also, the small cap advance/decline line did as well. File this one under not bearish.
US technology stocks are driving historic market gains:
The MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF, $MTUM, has surged +38.2% year-to-date, more than 4 times the S&P 500’s equal-weighted index gain of +9.2%.
The fund’s top holdings include Micron, $MU, Intel, $INTC, AMD, $AMD, and Broadcom, $AVGO.
As a result, the $MTUM to S&P 500 equal-weighted index ratio has risen to a record ~172.
This ratio has surged +75.0% since early 2023, as momentum stocks have materially outperformed the average stock.
This metric also now stands 14.7% above the 2020 pandemic recovery peak.
Meanwhile, the MSCI US Momentum Index to MSCI US Index ratio has surged +24% over the last quarter, the largest quarterly outperformance on record, surpassing the 2000 Dot-Com bubble high of +21%.
The momentum trade is leaving the rest of the market behind.
.@Gallup: "The most common way Americans say they have gotten their news in the past seven days is from social media (54%), followed by news websites or apps (44%)."