Beowullf's Treasury

Not Financial Advice.

[Gad Saad @GadSaad]

There you go. The United States is built on a limitless ethos of entrepreneurship, innovation, and excellence. Canada is built on feminized and "empathetic" parasitic taxation fuelled by envy and resentment toward those who produce.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

S&P 500 advance/decline line still in an uptrend.

[Libertario 🟨⬛ @QuotesforGoal]

"El estado no produce riqueza, la destruye. Solo los individuos crean riqueza y prosperidad en la sociedad"

Adam Smith

[Deer Point Macro @deerpointmacro]

Economy moving into expansion quadrant = risk-on.

[Deer Point Macro @deerpointmacro]

US growth remains resilient, with GDP nowcast tracking near 3.3%.

Easier financial conditions, fiscal support, AI-driven investment, stronger manufacturing activity, and healthier bank lending continue to reinforce momentum. Domestic energy production also reduces vulnerability to external supply disruptions.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

South Korean Exports and DRAM + MOSFET prices are through the roof through the first 12 days of June.

We all know what happens next. #MELTUP

[Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet]

That’s wild. Only 1/3 of the French generate the taxes that fund everything else: pensions, healthcare, public salaries, subsidies, and social benefits.

The real crisis in France isn’t the budget deficit.

It’s that the cart is getting heavier while the horse is getting smaller.

[Harley Finkelstein @harleyf]

You don’t have to love Elon Musk to recognize what this headline says about us.

A country that spends more time criticizing wealth creation than encouraging it sends a clear message to builders: your success is tolerated, not celebrated.

Canada should be the best place in the world to build ambitious companies. Headlines like this make us look like we’re not quite ready for that.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

5 year breakevens.

There is no inflation problem.

Wall St Keynesians wrong again.

[Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet]

Socialism is popular because it appeals to compassion.

It always fails badly in reality because compassion alone isn’t an economic system.

A society needs more than good intentions. It needs mechanisms that encourage people to invest, build, invent, compete and create.

Got it?

[Beowullf's Treasury @BeowulfTreasury]

Margin debt has continued to be supportive as well....

[Beowullf's Treasury @BeowulfTreasury]

With the strengthening of the US dollar, we have seen tightening of global liquidity growth over past 4-weeks. However, the trend continues to remain bullish. High Yield credit spreads have remained relatively well behaved. Our proprietary trend index has kept us in NDX-100.

[Beowullf's Treasury @BeowulfTreasury]

With the strengthening of the US dollar, we have seen tightening of global liquidity growth over past 4-weeks. However, the trend continues to remain bullish. High Yield credit spreads have remained relatively well behaved. Our proprietary trend index has kept us in NDX-100.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

The missing piece is that there isn’t really another burst of above-normal money supply growth yet.

That’s why I have trouble seeing CPI growth taking out the 2022 high on this timeframe.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The Korean export data for the first 10 days of the month came in extremely strong this morning, at 85.9% year-on-year versus 43.7% in May.

And you are telling me that AI demand is not accelerating?

[Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA]

Inflation is always monetary mismanagement.

[Richard Dias @RichardDias_CFA]

These people just don’t get it and never will. Canada’s affordability problem is really a productivity problem.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The big mover in our macro nowcasts is that inflation risks are rolling over very fast in the US. This will be a big game changer for rate markets imho

Find the probably best Nowcasts in the world at Nowcast IQ

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Keynesian Brain Rot on Full Display in Canada.

Canada’s central banker, Tiff Macklem, is engaged in a familiar technocratic exercise, avoiding the only question that matters. Did the Bank of Canada help push the country into recession? Instead of answering, he hides behind definitional games and bureaucratic evasions.

The economics are straightforward. Under a Wicksellian framework, the neutral rate declines when productivity weakens and population growth deteriorates. Canada has both. Productivity is negative. The marginal growth impulse from immigration is fading. By definition, the economy’s capacity to sustain higher rates has fallen.

Wicksell is clear, hold policy rates above the neutral rate, and monetary policy becomes restrictive. In that sense, even standing still becomes tightening.

By refusing to adjust to a falling neutral rate, Macklem and the Bank of Canada have effectively tightened into a weakening economy.

To be clear, supply shocks and tariffs do not cause inflation, they change relative prices, that is basic economics. Yet policymakers treated a largely supply-driven price spike as justification for aggressive tightening, compounding structural weakness with cyclical error.

This is not caution. It is policy failure.
But the deeper problem is not just the central bank, it is the broader economic elite that presided over a slow-burning economic cancer. For years, Canada has suffered from negative productivity growth, weak capital investment, and a suffocating regulatory state that steadily eroded competitiveness. Instead of diagnosing and treating these structural failures, policymakers masked them. Real estate speculation and household leverage became the chemotherapy of choice, blunting symptoms while the underlying disease spread.

Now the façade is cracking, and the diagnosis can no longer be avoided.
And yet the response from the same leadership class is denial dressed up as sophistication. They debate whether this qualifies as a “technical recession” while per capita output falls, businesses retrench, and real incomes erode. The message to ordinary Canadians is as clear as it is dismissive, absorb the pain, trust the framework, and stop asking questions.

A recession is an economic heart attack, sudden, visible, impossible to ignore. But Canada’s problem runs deeper. This is what it looks like when an economy is overtaken by cancer, a long-term deterioration driven by weak productivity, chronic underinvestment, and policy complacency, left undiagnosed, or worse, deliberately ignored by the very elites tasked with managing it.
Canada avoided the shock of 2008. Instead of reform, it allowed the disease to metastasize. What is unfolding now is not an external crisis. It is the inevitable consequence of years of neglect.

Macklem can continue to argue about definitions. The country, meanwhile, is living with the diagnosis. Keynesian Brain Rot was on full display in Canada today.

[CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes @crossbordercap]

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